NEW DELHI: Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s chances for a second term in 2019 general elections waded into a major challenge on Wednesday when his rightwing Hindu party was defeated in two parliamentary by-polls, regarded as safe seats for the ruling establishment in the BJP’s largest bastion of Uttar Pradesh.

The BJP was also trounced in a parliamentary and assembly constituency apiece in Bihar at the hands of the jailed former chief minister Lalu Yadav’s Rashtriya Janata Dal, which included one Muslim winner.

The outcome in Uttar Pradesh was made possible by an improbable alliance between the Dalit Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) of former chief minister Mayawati and her arch foe the Samajawati Party (SP) of former state chief Akhilesh Yadav.

Ms Mayawati did not field a candidate and mobilised her solid Dalit base to transfer their votes to the former rivals.

Of the two Lok Sabha constituencies that the BJP lost in Uttar Pradesh, Gorakhpur was held by Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath, and Phulpur was vacated by his deputy, their resignations required for both to become members of the state assembly.

In the Bihar by-election, Lalu Yadav’s RJD won the Araria parliamentary by-poll and the Jehanabad assembly segment, while the BJP retained the Bhabua Assembly seat. The losses have reduced the BJP’s Lok Sabha tally to 272, exact number needed to retain a majority without allies. The Congress won an embarrassingly low tally of a few thousand votes in Uttar Pradesh, which could force its leaders to re-think their strategy for 2019.

Mr Adityanath had called the by-elections a “dress rehearsal for the 2019 Lok Sabha elections”.

The BJP’s hopes for re-election at the centre hinge heavily on a good performance in UP and the party wants a repeat of its landslide victory in 2014, when it had, along with allies, won 73 out of the state’s 80 parliament seats. It followed that up with a sweep of assembly elections last year and the party had hoped for its winning streak to continue.

Published in Dawn, March 15th, 2018