Friday’s show of street strength by hundreds of workers of the Muttahida Qaumi Movement’s (MQM) London-based leadership may come as a surprise to many, but not to those familiar with Karachi’s politics. It is safe to assume that similar events and more can be expected in the days to come. It is simple.

Three decades of loyalty to Altaf Hussain by hundreds of thousands of workers, admirers and voters is hard to shake — it has shown that it can withstand any argument or force. The March 2015 raid on the MQM headquarters Nine-Zero raised a flurry of questions for the political observer and the events that unfolded after Altaf Hussain’s “anti-Pakistan” speech were followed by even more.

Usually periods of crises involving the MQM in Karachi bring with them a real sense of foreboding. It is therefore interesting to note that this time around, it is accompanied by confusion and anxiety, that too within party ranks.

For the observer following Karachi’s politics, the media war between MQM’s factions — London and Pakistan — may have lost steam after four months of going strong. But amid a back-and-forth of political speeches, banter and warnings, what occurred in Azizabad on Friday provides substance for guesswork as to what lies ahead. It is getting clearer day by day that the Pakistan faction of the party enjoys the support of the party’s legislators. The detractors are the workers at the grassroots level. On the other hand, the only factor which keeps the London faction alive is the workers’ loyalty.

Friday’s event was interesting for Karachiites who noticed the London loyalists shed “all fear” and re-emerge. Labels of “Indian-agents” and an ongoing “state-operation” notwithstanding, the party workers stood their ground for hours in the presence of law enforcement agencies that included the Pakistan Rangers, Sindh.

There is the question of whether the party is now getting “political space” or if Friday’s event was a reaction to another “ban” on their activities which led to shouts of pro-Altaf slogans ring through Azizabad, paling in comparison an event by the opposing faction in the PIB Colony.

For MQM-London, nothing had changed for the party or its workers in Karachi and other Sindh cities, rather its activists have “finally decided to come out and raise their voice”.

“Friday’s event is a reflection of that resolve,” MQM leader Wasay Jalil says. After months of complaining about “state-tyranny”, Mr Jalil interestingly sounds hopeful about the future. When asked whether this hope had anything to do with the “space” being given to the party, he categorically denies any such windfall.

“Not at all,” he says. “The situation has not changed for us. Even yesterday [Friday] our workers were arrested, detained, tortured and hundreds of them were booked under anti-terror charges only for marking Yaum-i-Shuhada and hoisting the flag. How can you say that things are improving?”

The statement might just hold water. On Saturday, Azizabad police registered a case against 100 party workers over charges ranging from rioting to promoting enmity between various groups.

According to a police officer, the case was registered on behalf of the state against MQM workers who had clashed with law enforcers during the Yaum-i-Shuhada event in Azizabad on Friday evening. Senior analysts and political pundits do not believe that the situation is as grim as the leadership makes it out to be.

“The situation is quite fluid right now,” says Dr Jafar Ahmad of the Pakistan Study Centre at the University of Karachi. “What the people expected for the party in a post-Altaf era, took place within his lifetime. But so far, it’s clear that his personal following is identifiable. The only thing missing is that the MQM legislators have detached themselves from Altaf Hussain.”

Dr Ahmad says it’s hard to predict anything about the future of the two-faction party. But what is certain is that if similar protests and street-power shows continue, the quickly-changing loyalty of party legislators would be interesting to note. He says behind the political activities, approaches, speeches and statements, it is hard to tell what the powers that be have in store. “If MQM-London workers manage to keep this momentum up after every few days or weeks, you may find that legislators will not wait for too long. As long as Altaf Hussain is alive, he is the only factor to be recognised in the MQM.”

Published in Dawn, December 11th, 2016