ISLAMABAD: The Islamic State organisation is starting to attract the attention of radicals in Pakistan and Afghanistan, long a cradle for Islamist militancy, unnerving authorities who fear a potential violent contagion.

Far from the militants’ self-proclaimed caliphate in Iraq and Syria, the name of IS has cropped up several times in jihadi circles in recent weeks in Pakistan and Afghanistan, the historic homeland of the Taliban and other extremist groups.

Leaflets calling for support for IS were seen in parts of northwest Pakistan, and at least five Pakistani Taliban leaders and three lesser cadres from the Afghan Taliban have pledged their support.

Pro-IS slogans have appeared on walls in several cities in both countries and in Kabul University, where a number of students were arrested.

Militant, security and official say these are local, individual initiatives, and at this stage IS has not established a presence in the region.

But the success of IS in the Middle East is unsettling many of those charged with keeping a lid on myriad extremist groups in the two countries.

“ISIS is becoming the major inspiration force for both violent and non-violent religious groups in the region,” said Amir Rana, a security analyst in Pakistan.

Warning letter

Earlier this month, the National Counter-Terrorism Agency in Pakistan wrote to a dozen government agencies warning them to be on their guard against the IS group.

“The successes of ISIS play a very dangerous, inspirational role in Pakistan, where more than 200 organisations are operational,” the agency said.

The letter came as the army fights a major offensive in insurgent bastions of the tribal northwest, which appears to be weakening its major enemies, the outlawed Tehreek-i-Tali­ban Pakistan (TTP) and Al Qaeda.

Following the army operation, the TTP has fragmented into rival factions over recent weeks, fuelling rumours it could be overtaken by IS.

The TTP leaders say they broadly support both the IS jihadists and Al Qaeda. They also say they have sent 1,000 fighters in recent years to help the jihadi struggle in Syria — an estimate confirmed by a Pakistan government source — and plan to send 700 more.

But if IS militants one day envisage extending their influence in Afghanistan and Pakistan, they will have to either defy or find an accommodation with the two countries’ Taliban.

Currently, both the TTP and the Afghan Taliban officially recognise only one leader, Mullah Omar, and a senior Afghan cadre said that IS was wrong to declare a caliphate.

“The Taliban and their supporters say that `amir-ul-momineen’ has already been chosen,” he said, rejecting IS leader Abu Bakr al Baghdadi.

Money, money, money

So far, the Taliban and Al Qaeda’s new South Asia wing have steered clear of criticising IS, maintaining a united front against `western aggression’.

US officials claim the group is generating tens of millions of dollars a month from black market oil sales, ransoms and extortion.

This financial heft is proving a big draw — including for the five Pakistani Taliban leaders who announced their support for the IS.

“The splinter groups are facing financial crisis, so they are contacting Daesh,” a senior militant told AFP. Daesh is another name for IS.

A fragile Afghanistan is more worrying, particularly Kunar and Nuristan provinces on the Pakistani border, which have long been refuges for jihadists.

“The authorities’ fear is that IS will join up with the TTP and other extremist groups and from there spread on both sides of the border,” said Amir Rana.

Several sources say that in Kunar there is at least one camp training hundreds of fighters sympathetic to IS.

Away from the camps, there is a danger that the IS jihadists could attract more and more young Afghans and Pakistanis through their propaganda on Facebook and Twitter.

“People here face problems with the lack of justice, the corruption and the inefficiency of the state, and therefore they need a counter-narrative, and ISIS provides one with religious content,” said Tahir Ashrafi, head of the Pakistan Ulema Council.

Published in Dawn, November 3rd, 2014