BESIDES being a blow to the government in Baghdad, the fall of Mosul is an event of major military and political significance whose consequences could shake the entire region. The most pitiable actor in the Iraqi drama has been Nouri al-Maliki, who in spite of having secured a third term as prime minister in last month’s general election, was unable to defend Iraq’s second biggest city. The Iraqi army is still there as a fighting force, but what is in doubt is Mr Maliki’s ability to mobilise the people and have the necessary will to eject the euphoric Islamic militants from Mosul. The Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant already controls some other parts of Iraq; Mosul’s capture means the Islamist militants have acquired a major, oil-rich industrial base for their operations not only in Iraq but in neighbouring Syria, where security forces loyal to Bashar al-Assad have of late been winning the civil war. The flight of half a million people from the city and the haste with which security forces abandoned it after discarding their uniforms underscore the Islamist militants’ success in sowing terror and demoralising the people and the security forces.

The Gulf states and other powers which helped Al Qaeda and its various offshoots in the Syrian civil war and turned a fight for democracy into a sectarian conflict must now rue Mosul’s fall. The ISIL is now in a position to operate in greater comfort, turn Mosul into a safe haven for other extremist groups and plan a further expansion of the territory under its control through militant operations. Mosul cannot be negotiated; it has to be retaken by force, and that clearly appears beyond the beleaguered Maliki government’s prowess. Mosul is also close to Kurdistan, which is already enjoying a fair degree of autonomy. Going by its philosophy and tactics, the ISIL will covet the oil-rich Kurdistan and that way inch closer to Turkey. If the government in Kirkuk has some wisdom, it should make common cause with Baghdad against the militants for the greater good of Iraq.

Published in Dawn, June 12th, 2014