THERE is little surprise that Nayef bin Abdul Aziz, a son of Saudi Arabia's founder and an influential royal, has been declared crown prince of the desert kingdom after the recent death of former heir Prince Sultan. The decision by the Saudi royal court indicates that the Allegiance Council, a conclave of senior princes formed by King Abdullah soon after the death of the previous ruler Fahd, has apparently passed its first test. However, the appointment of Nayef, who is approaching 80, may disappoint many in Saudi Arabia and outside as they had been hoping for a change in the absolute monarchy's socio-political set-up. Prince Nayef, who has headed the powerful interior ministry since 1975, is seen as an arch-conservative who is stiffly opposed to political and social reform and who enjoys close links with the country's Wahabi establishment. He has reportedly jailed dissidents and is not in favour of elections, as opposed to the relatively more moderate King Abdullah. At the same time, the prince has played a central role in the kingdom's successful fight against Al Qaeda ever since the latter launched a violent campaign inside Saudi Arabia in 2003.

The political change in Saudi Arabia comes at a time when the Arab world is in flux. Leading Saudi allies, such as Egypt's Hosni Mubarak, have been sent packing while others such as the Al Khalifa family in Bahrain have faced serious challenges to their power. Domestically, although Saudi Arabia has managed to largely insulate itself from the threatening winds of the Arab Spring, there have been increasing calls for change, especially in the oil-rich, Shia-dominated east of the country. The world will watch closely which course Saudi Arabia takes with the new crown prince, while a younger generation of royals prepares to take over as the monarchy's ageing leadership begins to fade away.