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14 September 2004 Tuesday 28 Rajab 1425



N. Korea blast cause unclear, but theories abound


SEOUL, Sept 13: An accident at an underground munitions depot or a weapons factory was the likely cause of a huge explosion in North Korea last week, and there were possibly two blasts, South Korean media reports said on Monday.

South Korea's financial markets, which can react sharply to developments in the North, ignored the blast reports, which came as diplomats were seeking to persuade Pyongyang to return this month to six-party talks on its nuclear weapons programmes.

The South Korean government has all but ruled out the possibility of a nuclear test by North Korea in the northeastern region of Ryanggang between Sept. 8 and 9, the reports said.

The North has said nothing yet about the incident but often notes events long after they happen - and sometimes not at all. South Korean intelligence detected two explosions on the night of Sept. 8 to 9, the JoongAng Ilbo said, suggesting a possible accident at a military factory or a munitions depot.

The area in Ryanggang that borders China has been known to have a secret missile base but the site of the accident is some distance away, the source was quoted as saying. Analyst Kim Tae-woo at the Korea Institute for Defence Analysis said that it was probably an accident.

"Rodong missile bases are located in the blast area, and extremely explosive liquid fuel which is also very flammable is used in production and in operation of missiles," Kim said.

"I believe it was a mere accident triggered by mishandling of such material," he said. A train blast in April in North Korea's Ryonchon rail station that killed at least 170 people was believed to have been sparked by careless handling of explosive materials. A Western diplomat in Seoul said the North had "fourth world safety standards".

South Korean officials are analysing satellite images and other data to determine the cause of the explosion that produced a large cloud detected on Sept. 9. US officials, including Secretary of State Colin Powell, also played down the possibility of a nuclear test.

The Chosun Ilbo daily said the explosion left marks, as if a blast set off by an equivalent of 1,000 tonnes of dynamite had hit a munitions depot or a military cargo train carrying explosives.

The blast produced a smoke cloud that stretched to four kilometres, the newspaper said. It quoted a North Korean defector familiar with the area as saying such a blast could be attributed to liquid fuel used for missiles.

UNDERGROUND BLAST: The time sequence of the explosion followed several hours later by a smoke cloud supports a theory that the blast took place underground, the paper quoted several sources as saying.

South Korea first got indications of the blast from a satellite, a senior South Korean official told Reuters on Sunday. "The weather overall at the time was cloudy, but there was a peculiar cloud, a cloud that was different from any other," said the official, who asked not to be identified. "We cannot confirm whether it had the characteristics of a mushroom cloud."

Mr Powell said there was "no indication that that was a nuclear event of any kind. Exactly what it was, we're not sure." Asked on ABC's "This Week" if North Korea had tested a nuclear device, Mr Powell said, "No."

North Korea is believed to be developing nuclear weapons - Washington has said it may have one or two or even more already. In October 2002, US officials said North Korean officials had said they had a clandestine uranium enrichment program that could be used to develop nuclear weapons and that violated its international commitments. They subsequently denied say this.

The Chosun Ilbo said the blast site was 10 km (6 miles) southwest of the Yongjori Missile Base at a point 30 km (18 miles) from the China frontier. The mountainous area is off-limits to outsiders, including aid workers.

The base has tunnels for storing, deploying and launching medium-range Rodong missiles, according to defector reports. The New York Times reported in its Sunday editions the Bush administration had received recent intelligence reports that some experts believed could indicate North Korea was preparing to conduct its first nuclear weapons test explosion.

The news broke as South Korea, Japan, China, Russia and the United States sought to persuade Pyongyang to resume talks on its nuclear ambitions. The North, which threatened at earlier talks to test an atomic bomb, says it sees no need for more talks. -Reuters




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