Military, mullah and mohajir
By Shamim-ur-Rahman
THE strange marriage of convenience between the military, mullah and the mohajir movement is troubling liberal political forces. They wonder as to how long the military, led by Gen Pervez Musharraf, will be able to ride the chariot of power driven by two clashing forces such as the Muttahida Majlis-i- Amal and the Muttahida Qaumi Movement.
Some political circles believe that Gen Musharraf, after his American visit, has decided to “tolerate” the mullahs in the NWFP and elsewhere in recognition of their “manipulated anti-Musharraf shows”, provided they don’t challenge his authority and help him in acquiring legitimacy through parliament.
The PML-Q and the MMA together can easily provide a parliamentary cover for Gen Musharraf to remain president and also pass an agreed draft of the LFO with a two-thirds majority.
The MMA was earlier saying it was ready to accept Gen Musharraf as president if he laid down his uniform. This was against the position taken by the PPP and the PML-N on the issue. Now the MMA has modified its position to suggest that even a date for the president to give up his COAS post will be acceptable, and indicated that the date too is negotiable.
Observers believe that the unexpected turn in Pakistan- Afghanistan relations, particularly some of the statements made by President Karzai, despite Gen Musharraf’s U-turn vis-a-vis Taliban, has prompted the Establishment here to activate a policy of live and let live with the MMA. Elements that were instrumental in helping the MMA to put its act together want the religious lobby to acquire a new look as a tolerant and forward-looking group. Perhaps Maulana Fazlur Rahman’s visit to India is also part of that image-building exercise. Perhaps, the Establishment needs the MMA’s support to implement what Gen Musharraf has promised President Bush at Camp David vis-a-vis Kashmir, Israel and the region.
The regime’s political expediency is evident from the fact that on the one hand it is dealing with the mullahs while at the same time it is sharing power with the MQM both at the centre and in Sindh despite the fact that the latter is opposed to Gen Musharraf’s local government system and is raising confederal slogans on provincial autonomy and opposing the Greater Thal Canal Project.
Some analysts are of the view that once the regime gets the MMA’s support on the LFO, it will no longer need the MQM, which they say will be dumped at the centre as well as in Sindh. But given the MMA’s reluctance to be openly identified with the general’s regime, it is hard to conceive that he would show the door to the MQM so soon.
It is strange that Gen Musharraf, who wishes to be described as a liberal, has allowed the MMA to form the government in the NWFP but made every effort to deny that right to the PPP in Sindh. The MMA is also part of the PML-Q led coalition in Balochistan, and, of course, Prof Ghafoor Ahmad won his Senate seat on the strength of PML-Q votes.
Choudhry Shujaat Hussain has always been calling publicly for an alliance with the MMA. These overtures have never been publicly rejected by the MMA, and newspaper reports had even given the names of prospective MMA ministers. This was denied by the MMA.
One tends to agree with those who believe that the MMA is the product of the Establishment. Otherwise, why was the Shariat bill presented in the NWFP assembly when a similar act already existed? Why did the governor sign it if at all it was considered to be an attempt at Talibanization? He could have sent it back to the assembly for reconsideration. Was it only to show the US that there were extreme pressures on Gen Musharraf?
It cannot be denied that the agencies delivered Karachi to the Jamaat when they forced Maulana Noorani to support the main JI candidate against the PPP candidate. In five towns, Maulana Shah Ahmad Noorani’s candidates were contesting jointly with the PPP on joint tickets, MMA candidates were given a free hand during the election while the main opposition PPP was totally blocked, despite being a secular party.
Now the question is as to what could happen to the military- MQM axis. Will they still be a part of the governing coalition when the regime succeeds in enticing the MMA? Will the PPP be allowed to form a government in Sindh? Perhaps not if the radicals in the party remain in control.
Opposition circles believe that as the provincial government is crumbling from within, the only way out is a military overseer as governor, as predicted by Pir Pagara.

