SINGAPORE: For a second time, a Gulf War victory by the world’s most high-tech army is giving Chinese military strategists much food for thought.

Since the 1991 Gulf War, the People’s Liberation Army has raced to upgrade technology and rethink strategy. Now it must take on board some new lessons from the latest Iraq campaign for its own RMA — Revolution in Military Affairs, analysts say.

In particular, the Iraq war is likely to prompt a rethink on ways to invade Taiwan should the renegade island declare independence.

In many ways the latest Gulf conflict is a reinforcement of PLA strategy rather than a revolution.

“I doubt that they are becoming any more concerned than they have been,” said Robert Karniol, Asia editor of Jane’s Defence Weekly.

China was pursuing what he described as “the magic bullet” by focusing its efforts on nuclear weapons or space-based lasers.

Those areas encompass a deterrent capability and crucial defensive capability, since analysts say China does not expect to become engaged in an offensive war.

After the first Gulf War, which sent the People’s Liberation Army on a high-tech shopping spree that continues to this day, the war in Kosovo provided more lessons. The latest conflict has shown Chinese strategists that invasion plans for Taiwan are flawed.

“The lesson from Iraq makes the missiles in Fujian virtually ineffective,” said Andrew Yang, secretary general of the Chinese Council of Advanced Policy Studies think tank in Taiwan, referring to the estimated 400 missiles lined up along the coast of Fujian province opposite the island.

Were Taiwan to declare independence, Beijing has said that would be reason to invade. The United States is committed to defend the island of 20 million people.

It is a scenario that preoccupies PLA tacticians.

“One scenario put forward is that if push came to shove the Chinese would not have to invade but just lob the missiles and everyone gives up,” said Karniol.

“Now they have to reconsider that strategy because 400 missiles don’t mean much,” he said. “The Americans fired many times that number in cruise missiles alone and had complete control of the skies but it still came down to ground troops.”

Ground forces might not be much help.

Under the late Chairman Mao Zedong, the PLA believed it could rely on the force of a human wave of soldiers to overwhelm its foes. Those ground troops are now its Achilles’ heel.—Reuters