LAHORE: The Pakistan Meteorological Department has forecast below normal rains during the forthcoming monsoon season that lasts the country from July to September.

According to its preliminary forecast for the season, the Met department says pre-monsoon showers are expected in the country during second fortnight of June. And monsoon will attain its normal rhythm gradually towards the end of July.

In general, 2015 monsoon season is expected to be weaker than normal, therefore less than normal rain is foreseen during June-August.

Monsoon rains will mainly concentrate in Azad Jammu and Kashmir, northeast Punjab and upper Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, embedding with extreme precipitation events sometimes exceeding 200mm per day.

Models are indicating some heavy falls in the catchment of the river Kabul in Pakistan and Afghanistan due to the interaction of westerly waves and monsoon currents.

Due to less cloudiness and relatively clearer skies in Gilgit-Baltistan, the glacier melt rate will be higher. A careful operation of dams will be required to avoid the synchronous peak flows.

In Sindh and Balochistan, rainfall during the period is expected to remain much less than normal which may aggravate drought conditions in Thar and Cholistan, the forecast concludes.

Published in Dawn, May 29th, 2015

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