Transition in Swat

Published February 1, 2011

THE gradual handover of Swat from the army to civilian law-enforcement agencies, as reported in this newspaper yesterday, must be cautiously welcomed. The horror that was Swat under the ‘rule’ of the Taliban two years ago will not easily be forgotten, and locals will be fearful that a premature exit by the army may open the door to the return of the Taliban. However, from the few details officials have shared, it appears that a phased handover over a period of years is to take place, with the pace depending on the situation on the ground. A good idea in principle, but much will depend on its execution.

At least three things will be critical to success. First, infiltration from areas like Dir and Bajaur Agency must be guarded against. The army appears to be aware of this threat, but it is exceedingly difficult to protect against. Militants have gained access to the length and breadth of the country, setting off human bombs and causing other forms of mayhem. So success in Swat on this count must be judged against a realistic yardstick. Second, the problem of so-called ‘high-value targets’ still at large will need to be addressed. The factors contributing to the resilience of the Taliban are not fully understood, but it seems plausible that as long as the top commanders are not captured or eliminated, they will be plotting some kind of unrest. Patience and a solid information-gathering network are the only sure-fire ways to eventually find and remove top-level commanders from the field.

Third, the laws for dealing with terrorists and militants need to be overhauled urgently. This seemingly ‘procedural’ issue in fact has far-reaching consequences. In Swat alone it is estimated that there are perhaps 2,500 militants in the custody of the security agencies, but an uncertain legal framework means that the law has yet to start to take its course. Essentially, the security forces are faced with the unpleasant prospect of militants being set free because courts will find no other option under the existing laws. From the status of such persons in custody to strengthening the anti-terrorism court framework, many legal loopholes and inconsistencies need to be addressed. That they have yet to be resolved is a damning indictment of civilian indifference. The law and interior ministers are routinely seen and heard from, making all manner of statements that may or may not make sense to the average person. Why cannot they work instead on protecting Pakistan from militants more successfully? Lastly, as they leave Swat security forces must be reminded of the consequences of their last withdrawal, when locals seen as ‘army sympathisers’ were executed by returning militants. The current strategy will have failed if Swat’s population is left vulnerable as a result of it.

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