THE suicide attack on Balochistan Chief Minister Nawab Raisani's convoy in Quetta on Tuesday raises a number of troubling questions. First, suicide attacks are relatively rare in Balochistan and when they have occurred they have tended to have sectarian targets, i.e. members of the Shia community. Suspicion for such attacks has usually fallen on groups like Lashkar-i-Jhangvi. Second, tribal traditions militate against strikes on tribal chieftains, there being a code that frowns on such attacks. Not that such attacks do not occur at all — the Baloch are notorious for their bloody rivalries — but even so, a roadside attack on the convoy of a sitting chief minister who is also a powerful tribal chieftain is extraordinary. Adding to the uncertainty are the competing claims of responsibility by various groups. The Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan, which is increasingly claiming responsibility for attacks across the country, has chipped in with a claim of responsibility. But a group calling itself the Laskhar-i-Jhangvi Al Almi has also claimed responsibility — the 'Al Almi' suffix usually refers to Al Qaeda-linked militants — as has the Balochistan Liberation United Front, one of the three main Baloch militant, separatist groups.

The trouble is the method of the attack and the target do not fit easily into prevailing narratives. Suicide bombers are the weapon of choice of the Taliban, Al Qaeda and sectarian groups. But such groups have not made targeting Baloch political leaders a priority — their targets in the province tend to be Shias or the security apparatus. And while Baloch separatist groups like BLUF have been targeting Baloch politicians, the groups are not known for suicide bombings, or, as mentioned above, attacks on tribal chieftains. So it would appear that a new, and very dangerous, form of attacks may be emerging in Balochistan. Late last month the Balochistan governor was also targeted in a bomb attack.

The greatest worry is that the attacks on the chief minister and governor could potentially provoke entire tribes in Balochistan. Nawab Magsi, the Balochistan governor, warned of precisely such a possibility on Tuesday when he suggested that if attacks against nawabs and sardars did not cease, a “tribal force” would “take revenge”. The governor underlined the seriousness of the situation by adding: “I and the chief minister have been attacked, but assailants should remember that such acts will push the province towards a tribal war and anarchy.” In a province already racked by violence of every hue, the latest developments are rather ominous. Responsibility must quickly be affixed and measures must be taken to soothe tribal anxieties — else another front may open up in Balochistan.