THERE is an upsurge in violence in Syria, the Arab League observers' mission has all but failed, and there are fears the country is sliding into civil war. The AL mission entered the country on Dec 26 and came up with a plan President Bashar al-Assad accepted only to renege on it. The mission has come under sharp criticism from the Syrian opposition, which claims the observers have no training in monitoring trouble spots. The mission itself complained that it relied on government transport, and that turned its mission into a guided tour. The AL plan that the regime should withdraw troops and heavy weapons from streets in main cities, release prisoners, allow foreign observers and AL monitors to move freely and start talks with the opposition would have improved the situation perceptibly and led to talks. But the regime had second thoughts on the plan because its implementation would have meant large swathes of territory out of government control, giving a free hand to the so-called Free Syrian Army composed of deserters whose ranks areswelling by the day.

Angry elements within the armed forces claim that the majority of the troops hate firing on civilian protesters, that they could desert en masse, but that they are not sure of victory without more vigorous UN involvement, like imposing a no-fly zone as was done in Libya. Without the air force being crippled, the would-be deserters fear they would be crushed. Unfortunately, a Libya-like foreign involvement is not possible in Syria because of its key position in the Arab-Israel conflict, and that adds to Mr Assad's intransigence.

He is not without support among the people, and says violence, especially the recent suicide bombings in Damascus, was the work of 'foreign terrorists'. With the casualty toll having exceeded 5,000 2,000 of them soldiers his regime has become an international pariah. Unless he implements the AL plan, he will not be able to hold the constitutional referendum and the subsequent general election he has promised.

The result would be continued slaughter, with the possibility of a descent into a ferocious civil war.