As one gets older, one increasingly looks in the rearview mirror, both, to reminisce and assess how life would have been different had a different set of choices been made. This ability to reflect on the past is a uniquely human condition — one that allows both, individuals and societies, to create narratives and shared histories capable of shaping the present and the future.

Nawaz’s first speech after returning to Pakistan suggested that he had spent a lot of time looking in the rearview mirror — but whether he can convince a changed Pakistan to buy into his version of events is going to be a tall order.

Key takeaways from the speech

Three key things stood out in Nawaz’s Lahore address:

• He did not want to seek revenge, despite the many wrongs committed against him and his family
• He wanted to continue pushing for regional peace
• His framework for development remained unchanged

All those things are classic Nawaz, but after spending over 30 years trying and failing to achieve his goals, one must wonder whether this time will be any different.

Let’s start with the stated desire to not seek revenge and Nawaz’s urging that all institutions must work together to rescue the country. Something similar was agreed to many years ago when the Charter of Democracy was signed. But soon thereafter, it was Nawaz who donned the black coat and knocked on the doors of the Supreme Court to undermine the PPP-led coalition during the memogate saga.

The civilians began to bicker among themselves, allowing undemocratic forces to divide and conquer Parliament in a way that few would have imagined almost a decade ago. Maybe with age, Nawaz and his counterparts in the PPP have learnt from this past experience, but whether others, especially the Imran-led Pakistan Tehreek-i-Insaf (PTI), are keen to agree to some rules of the game remains to be seen.

This is going to be especially challenging in an environment where despite Nawaz’s desire to not seek revenge, the deep state is engaged in a full-frontal assault on the PTI and its cadres who have remained loyal to Imran. This ongoing repression, of which the PML-N is now the beneficiary, is sowing the seeds for another round of revenge and instability in the near future. How Nawaz manages to navigate this reality will have far-reaching repercussions for Pakistan’s broken and devastated democracy — and his track record is not great.

In addition, Nawaz’s refusal to allow the generals a veto over key aspects of national security and foreign policy has always led to a breakdown in relations with Rawalpindi. How and why this time will be different remains to be seen, but past experience suggests that sooner or later, the civilians will lock horns with the establishment. Two key structural issues will almost certainly be the driving force for the next round of confrontation — Nawaz’s desire to make peace with a more muscular and much more confident Modi-led India, which is also going into elections in 2024, and his potential refusal to grant another extension to another military chief.

Both these events will likely begin straining the relationship between Nawaz and the establishment in the coming months, straining what at this point in time looks like a rock-solid alliance between the army chief and the PML-N. And once those strains begin to emerge, another opening will be provided to Imran and the PTI, which may then once again open up the floodgates for another cycle of “mujhey kyun nikala” and “vote ko izzat do.”

Economic turmoil

Casting a dark shadow over all of the political and foreign policy developments will be the economy. Devastated by years of failed economic policy, including the PML-N’s obsession with Daronomics, the economy needs major reforms.

But while Nawaz may be a changed man with a different view on politics, in the realm of economics, he seems to have learnt nothing over the years. That he chose to insert Dar into the economic policymaking framework during the Pakistan Democratic Movement (PDM) coalition and sidelined Dr Miftah Ismail was a tragedy. Even more of a tragedy is that despite spending an inordinate time in London, Nawaz failed to engage with economists and other experts to sharpen his own understanding of what the economy needs.

This author began his writing career by critiquing Daronomics in October 2016 — over seven years later, not much has changed in terms of Nawaz’s economic acumen.

The former premier’s failure to update his own software when it comes to the economy is perhaps his biggest failure as a political leader. His idea that mega developmental projects built on borrowed money and a stronger rupee can create an “Asian tiger” is misinformed to the core. It has been disastrous in the past, and it will be disastrous in the future.

Connecting with the youth

More than anything else, however, Nawaz’s biggest challenge will be that he is an ageing man trying to convince a youthful Pakistan to believe in his recollection of the past. Half of the country was not born when a Nawaz-led Pakistan became a nuclear power. This generation of Pakistanis does not care that he came close to making peace with Vajpyaee’s India, that the highways he helped build changed how commerce is conducted in the country, or that he and his family have suffered at the hands of the establishment.

The generation of Pakistanis that Nawaz must connect with is connected to the world and is seeing everyone progress while they are left behind. They are either disillusioned by recent events or seething with rage at the injustices that they experience on a daily basis. They are done with boomers and they want to live in a Pakistan that is governed by men and women they see as credible actors who have what it takes to build a better future.

For many in this generation, Nawaz and his generation of political leaders are the reason why their future prospects are so bleak. At this point in time, it will be nearly impossible for Nawaz to inspire and motivate this generation, and so long as he fails in capturing the imagination of a new generation of Pakistanis, his ability to transform the country will remain severely constrained.