Live: US Iran Rift

At the heart of the deal to end the Middle East war lies a $300 billion fund to rebuild and develop Iran – but so far it is unclear who will foot the bill.

Here’s what we know about the fund and its potential backers.

What’s in the text?

The memorandum of understanding (MoU) says Washington “undertakes with regional partners to develop a definitive mutually agreed plan with at least $300 billion for the reconstruction and economic development” of Iran.

“The mechanism for the implementation of this plan will be finalised as part of a final deal within 60 days. All required licenses, waivers, and permissions needed for the relevant financial transactions will be granted by the United States of America,” it added.

The text does not say who will contribute to the fund, which is only one of many economic incentives the Americans have dangled in front of Iran to encourage them to sign a definitive deal.

The text also states the end of “all types of sanctions” on Iran upon the signing of a final deal, with Washington immediately issuing waivers allowing Tehran to sell oil.

“I think the idea of mentioning this fund in the MoU is to show Iran all the carrots that are available if they abide by the MoU and show goodwill in negotiations moving forward,” said Anna Jacobs, a non-resident fellow at the Arab Gulf States Institute.

US Vice President JD Vance said Iran would only get the rewards if it proves it has complied with the terms that will be hammered out in the 60-day period, which he said began on Thursday.

Not a ‘dime’ from US taxpayers

US hawks have lambasted the Trump administration for giving too many concessions to Iran, and have described the fund as a boon that will embolden its theocratic government.

Influential senator Lindsey Graham compared the move, should the funds come from the West, to granting a Marshall Plan to Germany “with the Nazis still in charge” — in reference to the American aid package that helped rebuild Europe after World War II.

Vance said Iran will “never get a dime” from American taxpayers under the deal.

Experts and commentators say the regional nations mentioned in the text can be none other than Iran’s wealthy Gulf neighbours — targeted by Iranian drones and missiles during the war.

Will the Gulf pay?

Gulf countries, divided over Iran in the aftermath of the war, have not confirmed they would invest in the scheme to rebuild their powerful neighbour, which has sought war reparations from the United States.

Iran desperately needs the funds, “so the hope is that the potential of greater investment longer term will help with further de-escalation”, Jacobs said.

“But the question is whether trust can be restored to allow for that.”

Asked about the fund last week, Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan declined to comment on its details.

But he said that after Iran’s Gulf attacks, “we’re going to have to have a conversation on how we rebuild that trust, how we rebuild that relationship before any concept of economic cooperation, mutual investment or anything like that can rationally be addressed”.

Domestic investment is a priority for the kingdom, he added.

For Saudi security analyst and researcher Hesham Alghannam, the kingdom’s vision “is based on a clear hierarchy of priorities: security first, followed by confidence-building through verifiable guarantees, and finally, a transition to broader levels of economic cooperation”.

The UAE, which bore the brunt of Iran’s attacks, had repeatedly demanded Tehran pay reparations for the damage it caused — though it softened its tone in the weeks prior to the deal.

The UAE was also one of the US-sanctioned Iran’s main trading partners, at least before the war.

Investing in Iran’s economy could provide leverage for the Gulf — but it would need guarantees that the funds would not be used to rearm Tehran.

Vance has been trying to reassure allies about the separate issue of Iran’s frozen assets — which the deal pledges to “make fully available”— saying they would not be used to “finance terrorism”.

But the vice president said mediator Qatar, along with Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner, had come up with “a very interesting solution” for the frozen assets, with the US and Qatar having “approval over that process” of unlocking them.

Instead, if any Iranian assets were unfrozen, they would “go to make American farmers richer and to feed the Iranian people”, Vance said, adding that the money would be used by Iran to buy American soybeans, corn and wheat.

Airlines stand to save billions of dollars on jet fuel after an interim US-Iran peace deal sent oil prices lower, but passengers are unlikely to see immediate relief as tight capacity may allow carriers to keep fares well above pre-war levels.

The United States market offers the clearest example. Fare increases still lag this year’s run-up in fuel costs, while domestic seat growth remains limited. That gives airlines leeway to use lower fuel bills to rebuild margins rather than reverse recent price increases.

US jet fuel spot prices stood at $2.85 a gallon on June 17, down sharply from an early April high of $4.88. A decline of that size would cut the US airline industry’s annual fuel bill by more than $40 billion if sustained, according to a Reuters calculation based on industry fuel consumption.

Fares still lag fuel

As jet fuel prices surged, US airlines raised ticket prices and bag fees, and cut schedules, but those steps have offset only part of the rise in fuel costs.

Industry data show jet fuel prices rose more than three times as fast as airfares from January through May. Deutsche Bank estimated US carriers would recover only about 60 cents of every additional dollar spent on fuel $14.4bn in higher revenue against $24.1bn in higher fuel costs.

Alaska Air said it was recovering about one-third of the increase, while Delta Air Lines, United Airlines and American Airlines put second-quarter recapture at about 40 per cent to 50pc. JetBlue Airways and Frontier Group expect to recover less than half.

United CEO Scott Kirby told Reuters his airline was getting closer to recouping the fuel-cost spike through pricing: “We’re on a path to recovering 100pc by the end of the year.”

Raymond James data shows average domestic fares booked one week before travel were up 34.1pc from a year earlier as of June 8.

The key question is whether airlines can keep recent fare increases as fuel prices ease. “What remains crucial is the ability to hold price,” Melius Research analyst Conor Cunningham said, adding that lower gasoline prices could ease consumer pressure over high airfares.

Unequal pass-through

Outside the US, fare relief is likely to be uneven. Lower crude prices will take time to feed through to jet fuel, and unless jet fuel falls back toward start-of-year levels, airlines are likely to keep fares firm or push them higher where demand allows, said Dudley Shanley, head of aviation and travel research at Dublin-based Goodbody.

Europe may see a split. Long-haul fares are more likely to ease because airlines passed on higher fuel costs more successfully on those routes, RBC analyst Ruairi Cullinane said. Short-haul fares may prove firmer if the peace agreement supports bookings and demand.

In Asia, HSBC analysts said China’s big three airlines face weak pricing power and falling aircraft utilisation, while Hong Kong’s Cathay Pacific is better placed as higher fares, cargo revenue and premium demand could offset fuel costs.

The Middle East is the clearest exception, after the war disrupted traffic flows. Some airlines may use promotions to win back traffic, said aviation analyst John Strickland, but fuel remains too expensive for widespread discounting. United Arab Emirates carriers could be more aggressive and receive stronger government backing, he added.

Earnings before discounts

How much airlines benefit from lower fuel prices will depend on how long prices stay down. Fuel bills reflect purchases over time, not spot prices, and even after the latest declines jet fuel still costs 54pc more than a year ago, according to the International Air Transport Association (IATA).

Southwest Airlines Chief Operating Officer Andrew Watterson summed up the pressure.

Asked when Southwest could return to pre-pandemic margins, Watterson told Reuters: “When’s fuel going to go down?” That leaves little incentive to cut fares as airlines try to rebuild earnings.

Jefferies estimated each 5pc drop in its roughly $3-per-gallon 2027 fuel-cost forecast would lift projected earnings per share by 10pc to 15pc for Delta, Southwest and United, and by as much as 50pc for American Airlines.

No broad fare war

In past US fuel cycles, falling oil prices often triggered a capacity race that pushed fares lower. Those conditions are not broadly in place now.

Aircraft delivery delays, tight airport capacity and weaker low-cost carriers are limiting the risk of a broad domestic fare war. US domestic airline seats are scheduled to grow just 0.4pc year-on-year in the third quarter, down from 4.6pc expected before the latest Middle East tensions, industry data shows.

JP Morgan analysts said limited aircraft deliveries and budget-carrier pullbacks reduce the risk of “meaningful capacity creep” in the US, giving airlines a better-than-usual ability to hold current pricing.

For passengers, fare relief may depend less on fuel than on whether demand holds up.

“This is very much subject to the strength of the consumer,” Shanley said.

Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian will undertake an official visit to Pakistan tomorrow, the Foreign Office (FO) said on Monday.

During his visit, which is at the invitation of Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, the president will be accompanied by a high-level delegation, including ministers and other high-ranking officials.

During his visit, Pezeshkian will meet President Asif Ali Zardari and hold talks with Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif.

Senate Chairman Yousuf Raza Gilani, National Assembly Speaker Ayaz Sadiq, and Deputy PM and Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar will call on the visiting dignitary, the FO said.

“This will be Dr Pezeshkian’s second visit to Pakistan in his capacity as President of Iran,” the FO noted.

“During the visit, the two sides will review the full spectrum of bilateral relations and explore new avenues to further deepen cooperation across diverse sectors, including trade, energy, border security, people-to-people exchanges, and regional connectivity,” it stated.

It also termed the visit an “important opportunity to discuss ongoing diplomatic engagements following the signing of the Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding, as well as regional and international developments of mutual interest”.

“The forthcoming visit reflects the shared commitment of Pakistan and Iran to further deepen their historic and cultural ties and underscores their common aspiration for peace, stability, and sustainable progress in the region,” the FO highlighted.

Pezeshkian’s visit follows key direct talks — dubbed the “Lake Lucerne Summit” — held between the United States and Iran in Switzerland, kicking off negotiations under the Islamabad MoU signed on June 18.

Under the 14-point accord, Washington and Tehran agreed on a framework to end the war, reopen the Strait of Hormuz and negotiate on key issues within 60 days of the signing.

The US-Iran talks in the Swiss resort of Burgenstock were mediated by Pakistan and Qatar, with Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and Chief of Defence Forces Field Marshal Asim Munir representing Pakistan.

The Lake Lucerne Summit created a mechanism for further technical talks, which will continue this week, and also set up communication lines to end the fighting in Lebanon and to keep the vital Strait of Hormuz open.

“Encouraging progress has been made,” the mediators said in their joint statement, including a contact channel set up to “avoid incidents and miscommunication” in the Strait of Hormuz.

A “de-confliction cell” between the parties and the Lebanese authorities has also been agreed upon to prevent fighting from erupting again.

Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif on Monday expressed Pakistan’s continued commitment to play an “honest and sinere” role in advancing dialogue in what were his first remarks after the conclusion of a high-level meeting between the United States and Iran under the Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding aimed at ending the Middle East conflict.

In a post on X, PM Shehbaz expressed satisfaction at the “successful conclusion” of the meeting held in Switzerland’s Burgenstock.

The premier stated that the discussions were held in a “positive and constructive atmosphere and yielded encouraging progress,” which included a roadmap towards the final deal within 60 days, the establishment of a high-level committee for political oversight and the commencement of further technical talks.

PM Shehbaz commended the leadership of both the US and Iran for “continued commitment to constructive engagement”. He also expressed thanks for “all brotherly and friendly countries for their valuable support in advancing this historic process,” particularly Qatar.

The premier thanked Qatar for its “critical support” in creating the necessary conditions for the negotiations to move forward.

“A word of thanks to the Swiss Government for their facilitation in hosting these talks,” PM Shehbaz said. He also paid a “special tribute” to Chief of Defence Forces and Chief of Army Staff Field Marshal Asim Munir.

PM Shehbaz said that CDF Munir’s “unitiring efforts” ensured the success of the talks.

“His dedication, commitment and perseverance are indeed commendable without which there would have been no progress,” the premier remarked.

He further thanked Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar as well as Interior Minister Mohsin Naqvi.

“Pakistan will continue to play its honest and sincere role in advancing dialogue and diplomacy towards a peaceful and lasting resolution,” PM Shehbaz concluded.

Meanwhile, DPM Dar “warmly welcomed” the “substantial progress” achieved at the talks. He also congratulated PM Shehbaz and CDF Munir for their “visionary leadership and tireless efforts in achieving this milestone”.

“I would also like to express my deep appreciation for the constructive spirit shown by the United States of America as well as the Islamic Republic of Iran towards the implementation of the Islamabad MoU and commend their continued commitment to dialogue and diplomacy. My deep gratitude also to the State of Qatar for its important role in the mediation process along with Pakistan,” he said.

“A team from our Ministry of Foreign Affairs will continue to remain engaged with the parties for technical-level talks for the remainder of the week at Burgenstock, Switzerland,” he said.

“Pakistan has been and will continue to play its role for achieving the goal of lasting peace and stability in the region and beyond,” Dar said.

Iran’s senior envoys left talks in Switzerland on Monday after a marathon negotiating session with the United States, state media reported, as mediators claimed progress towards a definitive US-Iran deal.

The host nation said conditions were set for technical talks to immediately follow, with the sides at the beginning of a 60-day period to secure a long-term settlement.

The negotiators aim to tackle some of the most intractable issues that have dogged US-Iranian relations for decades, including Tehran’s nuclear programme and enriched uranium.

Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baqaei said on Monday that “a very brief discussion took place regarding the nuclear issue, but there was no discussion of details” and that nuclear talks had not begun.

All the while, the war in Lebanon between Israel and Hezbollah has threatened to collapse the ceasefire, though the country has been relatively calm since Sunday.

Tehran and Washington, meanwhile, have set up communication lines to end the fighting in Lebanon and to keep the vital Strait of Hormuz open, mediators Pakistan and Qatar said, after the first round of talks.

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Additional input from AFP

Oil prices declined on Monday after US-Iran talks concluded in Switzerland with Tehran saying it had secured waivers for oil and petrochemical exports, easing worries about a supply shortage in global markets.

Brent crude fell $1.68, or 2.09 per cent, to $78.89 a barrel by 0633 GMT (11:33am PKT). Prices had climbed to $82.30 at the start of trading, fuelled by a bumpy start to the talks with threats from US President Donald Trump to restart the war on Iran and Tehran’s announcement it had again closed the Strait of Hormuz.

US West Texas Intermediate crude futures were at $76 a barrel, down 60 cents, ahead of the contract’s expiry later on Monday. The more active August contract fell 69 cents to $75.16 a barrel. There was no settlement in the US market on Friday due to a holiday.

“The decline has been driven primarily by improving prospects for a diplomatic breakthrough between the United States and Iran … reviving hopes that sanctions on Iran could eventually be eased,” said Sugandha Sachdeva, founder of SS WealthStreet, a New Delhi-based research firm.

High-ranking US and Iranian officials wrapped up their first round of talks in Switzerland on Monday, mediators said. The talks began on Sunday under the terms of a memorandum of understanding reached last week to extend a tenuous ceasefire from April for at least another 60 days.

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said his country had secured waivers for oil and petrochemical exports, the release of some frozen assets and the launch of a reconstruction and development plan for Iran.

“Such a development would allow nearly 1.5 million barrels per day of Iranian crude to return to international markets, significantly improving global supply availability at a time when demand growth remains moderate,” Sachdeva said.

‘Very real risks’

Before the talks, the number of ships that passed the Strait of Hormuz fell sharply on Sunday, shipping data showed, after Iran announced it had again closed the waterway, citing Israeli and US violations of the interim peace deal.

Israeli strikes in Lebanon killed at least 20 people on Saturday, Lebanon’s state news agency NNA said, one day after a ceasefire with Hezbollah took effect, aimed at halting months of escalating violence.

“Recent developments show that moving towards a more permanent deal will be challenging, with very real risks of a flare-up in hostilities during the 60-day ceasefire,” ING analysts said in a note ahead of the announcement of the conclusion of the talks in Switzerland.

Still, oil prices fell more than 8pc last week on hopes of more supply from the release of cargoes stranded in the Gulf and the potential lifting of US sanctions on Iranian oil as part of the US-Iran deal.

Over 25m barrels of Iranian oil have passed through the virtual blockade line since Monday, the head of the National Iranian Oil Company, Hamid Bovard, told state TV on Sunday.

The United Arab Emirates, Kuwait and Iraq have offered more oil to customers in the past week.

Iraq plans to restore crude production gradually to between 4.2m and 4.3m barrels per day, Iraq’s deputy oil minister for upstream affairs said in a statement on Sunday.

• Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, Turkiye, Egypt call MoU a step towards de-escalation, regional stability
• Stress need for verifiable, lasting deal
• Foreign ministers hail Islamabad, Doha’s role in brokering peace

CAIRO: Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, Turkiye and Egypt on Sunday welcomed the signing of the Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding betw­een the US and Iran, emphasising the importance of achieving a swift and successful conclusion to the subsequent phase of negotiations.

The Regional Four (R-4), meeting in Cairo occurred the same day Pakistan and Qatar hosted US and Iranian delegations in Switzerland for technical talks to iron out the details of the agreement.

Deputy PM and Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar attended the fourth meeting of foreign ministers in Cairo at the invitation of his Egyptian counterpart.

In a joint statement shared by the Pakistani Foreign Office on X, the participating nations viewed the development as a “constructive step towards de-escalation and towards ending a conflict which posed significant risks to regional security and stability, as well as to energy markets, international maritime routes, global supply chains, and international trade”.

The foreign ministers commended the efforts by regional actors that facilitated the understanding and stressed the faithful implementation of commitments. “The ministers lauded the instrumental efforts of Pakistan in reaching this historic outcome, along with the support extended by Qatar to bring about a successful conclusion to the negotiations on the MoU,” the statement read.

“The ministers also commended the continued and close coordination of Pakistan with them on this important issue.”

Building on this positive momentum, the statement placed particular emphasis on the “importance of achieving a swift and successful conclusion to the subsequent phase of negotiations, which aims to reach a lasting, verifiable, and mutually acceptable solution to the remaining issues”.

The ministers also devoted attention to the humanitarian and political situation in Palestine. “The ministers underscored that the Palest­inian cause remains at the heart of efforts to achieve a just, comprehensive, and lasting peace in the region” the statement said.

They reiterated support for the Palestinian people’s right to self-determination and an independent state based on the June 4, 1967, lines, with East Jerusalem as its capital.

In a separate statement, the FO shared that the ministers exchanged views on global developments and reaffirmed their commitment to dialogue, diplomacy, and collective efforts for regional peace.

Discussions focused on “strengthening coordination and advancing practical cooperation within the R-4 framework to address shared challenges and opportunities”.

After the culmination of the R-4 meeting, the foreign ministers called on Egyptian Pres­ident Abdel Fattah el-Sissi. DPM Dar welcomed el-Sissi’s acceptance of PM Shehbaz’s invitation to visit Pakistan.

El-Sissi appreciated Pakistan’s “constructive and responsible” role in promoting dialogue, de-escalation in the region.

They undersco­red the growing significance of the R-4 for structured dialogue, strategic consultation, and policy coordination on issues of common interest.

Later on his way from Cairo to Islamabad, Deputy Prime Minister Dar arrived in Saudi Arabia where he will pay his respects at Al-Masjid An-Nabawi.

Published in Dawn, June 22nd, 2026

WITH the signing of a memorandum of understanding between the US and Iran, an interim deal has been agreed. In what will be a two-step peace process the first phase freezes the war by extending the ceasefire for another 60 days. It commits Iran to open the Strait of Hormuz and the US to end its blockade. That process is already underway. But the hard part lies ahead as the second phase has to address the nuclear file and other thorny issues. If reaching a preliminary agreement proved so difficult, negotiating a comprehensive settlement will be tougher, especially with Israel’s malign presence looming in the background.

After four months of war, both sides wanted an exit ramp from the fighting. President Donald Trump seemed to want it more. Domestic political and economic pressure mounted on him, especially the fear that higher oil prices and inflation would hit American consumers and damage the US economy. This, as mid-term Congressional elections loomed with an unpopular war and the Republican party increasingly divided.

Moreover, continuing the conflict did not seem to bring Trump closer to any of his ever-changing objectives. If regime change was a core objective, the war failed to achieve that. More bombs would not have secured that outcome or his other stated aims. Around 40 times in 90 days Trump claimed “a deal is imminent”. This reflected his desperation for one as well as the constant effort to calm markets and drive down oil prices. The economic consequences of the Strait of Hormuz’s prolonged closure had begun to weigh heavily on Washington.

Iran was prepared to play the long game, especially as its control of the Strait of Hormuz gave it crucial strategic leverage. Its retaliatory attacks on US bases and energy infrastructure in Gulf countries raised the costs of war for America, its regional allies and the global economy. Tehran used the economic weapon to full effect. But there were limits to this strategy because of the substantial losses Iran also faced. Its ailing economy came under severe stress by reduced access to oil markets, restrictions on shipping and higher inflation. Another round of war heightened the economic risks. Having attained the upper hand in the conflict, a deal made sooner rather than later made more sense when Tehran’s negotiating position was relatively strong. Iran had already emerged as a symbol of defiance.

The US was unable to achieve its objectives both on the battlefield and negotiating table.

The deal ending the four-month war shows the failure of military force. The war imposed by the US and Israel did not compel Iran to surrender and accept terms dictated by them. A militarily weaker country under sanctions was able to hold out because of what the US has historically underestimated — the power of nationalism. While the US waged a war of choice with unclear objectives, for Iran it was an existential challenge. The will to survive powered by nationalist sentiment proved decisive in Tehran’s ability to resist aggression.

The broader question raised by this is about the limits of military power. The might-is-right paradigm is being challenged in an era where big powers can’t get their own way because modern warfare has levelled the ground between them and smaller countries. Military superiority does not guarantee dominance or victory, as exemplified by America’s operation Epic Fury, Russia’s unwon war against Ukraine and India’s aggression against Pakistan last year.

Whether the tentative US-Iran truce is followed by lasting peace depends on how issues deferred to the next stage of negotiations are tackled. This involves a 60-day, extendable period to reach agreement on Iran’s nuclear programme and sanctions relief for Tehran. But before that, Lebanon remains an obstacle if Israel, opposed to the US-Iran deal, continues its military rampage there. While the MoU says Lebanon is part of the “immediate and permanent termination of military operations on all fronts”, Israel seems intent on playing a spoiler.

The nuclear negotiations will of course be the key to a permanent settlement. Iran has already reaffirmed it will not “procure or develop nuclear weapons” in the 14-point MoU. The document also refers to agreement to resolve the stockpiled enriched uranium issue in the talks ahead. It holds out the option to resolve it by down-blending (diluting) the material on site under the IAEA’s supervision. This is what Iran offered all along despite Trump’s frequent declarations that the “nuclear dust” will be removed from Iran. Negotiations will also have to find common ground on the duration of a moratorium on enrichment of nuclear fuel. Sanctions relief will be tied to accord on these issues.

The MoU is a testament to US inability to accomplish its objectives both on the battlefield and the negotiating table. It sets out multiple concessions that Iran secured with Washington abandoning many of its red lines. This is reflected in Trump’s defensive remarks during his press conference at the G7 meeting. Iran can keep some ballistic missiles, which he had vowed to destroy, because other regional countries have them. He also said Iran could have its own nuclear programme because “other adjoining states have it”. Iran will receive waivers for oil exports immediately after signing of the MoU and before nuclear talks begin. As for the release of billions of dollars of Iran’s frozen funds, Trump said “We have taken a lot of their money, it’s not our money” and has to be returned. But he made it clear that the funds will be released in return for “good behaviour” by Iran and implementation of the MoU. The document also sets out a pathway for substantial financing for Iran’s reconstruction. Significantly, Iran’s support for its regional allies doesn’t figure in the MoU.

The deal got swift international applause. But its future remains uncertain. First comes the test of implementation. Will both sides honour the MoU? Then come the technical talks to hammer out a lasting settlement. As the gap between the two sides remains wide, negotiations may be long-drawn-out. For now, the deal has widened the rift between the US and Israel with America’s leaders rebuking the Israelis for their criticism of the agreement and Trump even taking a public swipe at Benjamin Netanyahu. Israel is already defying the latest ceasefire in Lebanon. But it is unlikely that its efforts to sabotage the interim deal will succeed.

The writer is a former ambassador to the US, UK and UN.

Published in Dawn, June 22nd, 2026

Delegations from the United States, Iran, Pakistan and Qatar arrived at Switzerland’s Burgenstock on Sunday for “technical-level” talks aimed at ironing out the details of the Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding signed by Tehran and Washington to bring an end to the conflict that has engulfed the majority of the Middle East.

On the table today several important issues: the lifting of the US blockade of Iran, reopening the Strait of Hormuz, Israeli strikes on Lebanon and Hezbollah, unfreezing of Iranian assets, and the sale of the country’s oil.

Each side will participate in bilateral talks ahead of the quadrilateral talks including mediators Pakistan and Qatar scheduled for Sunday afternoon.

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Header image: Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif gestures upon his arrival at the Burgenstock luxury hotel complex overlooking Lake Lucerne, Switzerland, on June 21. — AFP

THE fate of Lebanon could determine whether the recently signed MoU between the US and Iran survives.

True to form, Israel is doing all possible to ensure the nascent peace deal is destroyed before the proverbial ink dries, as it continues to mercilessly pound Lebanon. While a supposed ceasefire was announced on Friday, Israeli attacks in Lebanon continued yesterday, with a large number of casualties reported, as the Zionist state hit both the southern and eastern parts of the Arab state in apparent pursuit of its arch-foe Hezbollah.

Tragically, a large number of non-combatants have also been killed in Tel Aviv’s murderous forays, with even steadfast supporters like US President Donald Trump expressing displeasure over its bloodstained tactics.

But the Israeli leadership seems very clear on what it wants to do. For example, the Israeli prime minister has refused to end the occupation of southern Lebanon, while the extremist national security minister has said that “Lebanon must burn”. If this happens, the Iran-US MoU — and the entire region including Israel— may also burn.

At one end of the spectrum, the signatories of the MoU, as well as nations such as Pakistan, which have played key roles in finding a diplomatic off-ramp, are again actively trying to take the negotiation process forward. At the other end, Israel is hell-bent on sabotaging the process.

The international community, principally the US and Europe, must be firm with their friends in Tel Aviv and tell them that their destabilising behaviour must end. The past few months have proven that the biggest threat to Middle East peace is not Iran, but Israel, which has attacked one sovereign state after the other, along with carrying out the Gaza genocide. It must be stopped before it destroys a hard-won chance at peace.

While nearly all US administrations in the past — as well as European states — have mollycoddled Israel and ignored its atrocious behaviour, this time the tone in Washington seems to be hardening. For example, US Vice President J.D. Vance has told Israel to “wake up and smell the reality of the situation”, with reference to Tel Aviv’s displeasure with the Iran deal.

But tough words will not be enough. If the US wants Israel to change its bad behaviour, it must withhold the funds and weapons that are needed by the Zionist war machine to keep functioning. Israel has hardly any friends left in the world, and if the US starts asserting itself, Tel Aviv should listen.

The MoU is unambiguous: the ceasefire must apply to all fronts, including Lebanon. Either Israel must silence its guns and withdraw from all of Lebanon, or face isolation and boycott from the international community until it mends its ways.

Published in Dawn, June 21st, 2026

KARACHI: Despite the war in the Gulf region, Pakistani workers continued to leave for jobs in countries directly affected by the conflict, particularly during March.

Official data showed that during January-May, over 300,000 Pakistanis found employment in Middle Eastern states led by Saudi Arabia and the UAE. The largest number of Pakistani workers left for Saudi Arabia, while around 50,000 emigrated to the UAE, one of the countries most affected by the war.

According to data released by the Bureau of Emigration and Overseas Employment, 143,586 Pakistanis left for Saudi Arabia during the five-month period, the highest number for any single destination country. Saudi Arabia was also drawn into the conflict and reportedly faced multiple attacks by Iran targeting American facilities in the kingdom.

Although the war, which began on Feb 28, ended after about a month following a ceasefire, intermittent strikes by the US and Israel, as well as retaliatory attacks by Iran, continued to fuel uncertainty across the region. Concerns were further heightened by disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and heightened maritime tensions.

Over 300,000 Pakistanis found employment in ME states in Jan-May, led by Saudi Arabia and UAE

Despite these developments, Pakistanis continued to seek employment opportunities in Gulf countries.

The UAE remained a key destination. Dubai, which was considered among the potential targets during the conflict, received thousands of Pakistani workers during the first five months of 2026. Total emigration to the UAE during the period stood at around 50,000. During the conflict in March, hundreds of Pakistanis were also seen queuing outside the Dubai consulate in Karachi to obtain visas.

Bahrain and Qatar, which were also considered vulnerable during the conflict, continued to attract Pakistani workers.

The data showed that about 25,500 Pakistanis left for Qatar, while 10,129 migrated to Bahrain during January-May.

The continued outflow of workers may have helped sustain remittance inflows, which had earlier been expected to weaken. Remittances reached a record $4.2 billion in May, while total inflows by the end of FY26 are expected to exceed the $40bn target.

Published in Dawn, June 21st, 2026

• Truce under strain as Tel Aviv kills family of four, Lebanese soldier
• Israel refuses to withdraw its troops from southern territory
• Hezbollah warns unprovoked aggression will not pass without a response

BEIRUT: Israeli strikes in Lebanon killed at least 20 people on Saturday, Lebanon’s state news agency said, one day after a ceasefire with Hezbollah took effect, underscoring the fragility of a truce aimed at halting months of escalating violence.

Lebanon’s National News Agency reported that Israeli warplanes and drones struck multiple civilian and structural locations in southern Lebanon and the Bekaa Valley.

Hezbollah accused Israel of committing hundreds of blatant ceasefire violations and warned that the continued Israeli aggression “will not pass without a response”.

The group noted that responsibility for the dangerous escalation lay solely with Israel and urged the US to place intense pressure on the Israeli regime to implement diplomatic agreements and halt its devastating attacks

The Israeli military remains an occupying force in parts of southern Lebanon.

Israeli broadcaster Channel 12 reported that the military had been instructed by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defence Minister Israel Katz to hold fire, but leaders refused to withdraw troops from the Lebanese areas they had captured.

An Israeli military official stated that Hezbollah launched more than 50 projectiles at occupying forces entrenched in southern Lebanon.

The Israeli military claimed Hezbollah’s self-defence operations constituted repeated violations of the ceasefire. The military warned it would respond to any attacks, ignoring its own unprovoked continued presence on Lebanese soil.

Remaining firmly committed to the diplomatic ceasefire, Hezbollah emphasised it would respond to any Israeli attempt to “seize territory or expand its occupation.”

The resistance said Israeli forces aggressively attempted overnight to infiltrate the Ali al-Taher hill area in southern Lebanon. Lebanese fighters engaged the invading troops, Hezbollah reported, after which Israel carried out sweeping airstrikes both inside and outside its declared operational zone.

A senior Hezbollah official maintained that the group would never allow Israel “freedom of movement” in occupied Lebanese territory, asserting that resistance remains legitimate as long as Israeli forces remain inside Lebanon.

The renewed Israeli violence casts serious doubt on the durability of the ceasefire. Among the deadliest attacks was an unprovoked Israeli strike that obliterated a three-story residential building in the southern town of Barish in the Tyre district.

The strike killed a Lebanese father, a mother and their two young children, a local official said.

Furthermore, the Lebanese military confirmed that another Israeli strike assassinated a national soldier stationed on the Kfarrumman-Nabatieh road.

Highlighting the devastating human toll of the Israeli military assault, Lebanon’s Health Ministry reported that 4,057 people have been tragically killed in Israeli attacks since March 2.

The number of casualties includes vital medics, women and children. Meanwhile, Israeli authorities report at least 32 soldiers and four civilians have been killed.

Late on Saturday, an Israeli army official said the military had received orders from the country’s political leadership to halt fighting in southern Lebanon.

“The IDF has received updated directives from the political echelon to cease fire,” the official said in a statement.

The directive emerged as diplomats from several countries were meeting at a Swiss retreat over the weekend in a bid to maintain dialogue on a preliminary US-Iran deal to halt the Middle East war.

The US-Iran understanding announced this week calls for an immediate and permanent halt to military operations by the parties and their allies across several fronts, including Lebanon.

Published in Dawn, June 21st, 2026

Key developments:

• US-Iran agree to a roadmap toward a final deal within 60 days; technical-level talks to continue for the rest of the week in Switzerland
• US-Iran agree to set up a communication line” to avoid incidents in the Strait of Hormuz; agree to a mechanism to end war in Lebanon
• Iran’s foreign minister says “tireless” efforts by Pakistan Qatar has delivered “major progress” to end Lebanon war; says Iran has secured waivers for oil and petrochemical exports, the release of some frozen assets and the launch of a reconstruction and development plan

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After hours-long negotiations in the Swiss resort of Burgenstock, the United States and Iran agreed on a roadmap towards reaching a final peace deal in 60 days, a joint statement issued by mediators Pakistan and Qatar early on Monday said.

The talks, which began on Sunday and stretched into Monday, were held under the framework of the Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) that was signed between the two sides on Thursday. Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif had also signed the breakthrough interim peace deal as a mediator, marking a significant step toward ending the conflict that began in late February.

The joint statement issued by Pakistan and Qatar on Monday after the second round of direct talks between the two sides — the first having been held in Islamabad in April — said the first session of the talks under the framework of the Islamabad MoU had concluded with the participation of representatives from Iran, the US and the mediators.

“The Lake Lucerne Summit was conducted in a positive and constructive atmosphere. Encouraging progress has been made, including the creation of a mechanism for further technical talks,” the statement read.

It added that building on the Islamabad MoU, the two sides had agreed to the establishment of a high-level committee, “which will provide political oversight on the mediation”.

“Chief negotiators will report regularly to the high-level committee and lead working groups focused on nuclear and sanctions [issues], and a monitoring and dispute resolution group to ensure the effective implementation of the MoU, and on other matters,” it said.

According to the statement, the high-level committee had agreed on a roadmap towards reaching a final deal within 60 days, laying the foundation for the immediate commencement of further technical talks.

In addition, a communication line between the US and Iran would be established for 60 days “to avoid incidents and miscommunication with the aim of safe passage for commercial vessels through the Strait of Hormuz”.

The joint statement said both sides had also agreed on the creation of a “de-confliction cell, between the parties, the Lebanese Republic and facilitated by the mediators, to ensure the adherence to the termination of military operations in Lebanon as per the MoU”.

“Technical talks will continue for the remainder of the week at the Burgenstock resort on all issues,” it added. “The mediating parties will continue to do their utmost to ensure that the negotiations continue to be conducted in a constructive atmosphere with the aim of reaching a final deal.”

Concluding the statement, the mediators appreciated the US and Iran for their “ongoing commitment to diplomacy and a peaceful resolution to the conflict”.

“The mediating parties further commend brotherly and friendly countries for their continued support and valuable contribution to the ongoing negotiations,” the statement read.

Soon after the foreign ministries of Pakistan and Qatar posted the joint statement on X, Iranian Foreign Minister shared it on his account, saying that “tireless Pakistani and Qatari mediation has delivered major progress to end the Lebanon war”.

“Oil and petrochem exports are waived, blockade lifted, some frozen assets released, and major reconstruction and development plan launched for Iran,” he said.

“1st real test: Lebanon deconfliction cell,” he said.

Earlier, an American official said several key issues, including “all elements of the nuclear deal” with Iran, were discussed during the talks.

“We’ve had robust discussions on all elements of the nuclear deal,” the official said, speaking of a key sticking point between the two sides.

The official detailed that the discussion also covered “clarifying some of the confusing messaging from Iran on the Strait [of Hormuz] and building deconfliction mechanisms to ensure the strait will remain fully open. We have also worked through deconfliction mechanisms and enforcing the ceasefire in southern Lebanon”.

“We plan to continue working through each of these issues and using today’s work as a starting point for ongoing technical talks going forward,” the official said.

Closed-door negotiations

Closed-door quadripartite negotiations between the US and Iran had kicked off on Sunday, with Qatar and Pakistan participating in a mediatory role.

As the talks began, US President Donald Trump, in a post on Truth Social, had threatened Iran over unrest in Lebanon, one of the key issues on the table during the talks.

“Iran must immediately stop their highly paid PROXIES in Lebanon from causing trouble. If they don’t, we’ll hit Iran very hard again, just like we did last week, only harder!!!” he said.

Separately, in an interview with Fox News, the US president issued threats over the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, claiming that he maintains “a variety of options” at his disposal.

Roughly 80 minutes into the talks, Iranian media had reported a pause, with delegations withdrawing to hold internal consultations.

Following reports of the pause, Iran’s chief negotiator Bagher Ghalibaf in a statement on X dismissed US threats, cautioning Washington to “be careful”. He vowed that Tehran stood “ready to respond”.

‘Peace requires give and take’

Addressing the opening ceremony ahead of the closed-door talks, PM Shehbaz had hoped for an outcome that would ensure peace, progress and prosperity globally.

He said he was looking forward to productive talks and expressed satisfaction that the joint efforts of everyone involved in the peace process had culminated in the meeting in Burgenstock.

“I think here we are going to have wonderful discussions which will lead to, hopefully, very productive results in times to come,” he said.

He thanked US President Trump and Vice President JD Vance for their leadership, and praised Chief of Defence Forces (CDF) Field Marshal Asim Munir for his consistent efforts, perseverance and patience during the mediation process.

Meanwhile, US VP Vance told the press that “peace requires give and take”.

“This is a historic meet. Never before have Iranian and American leadership met at such a high level outside of Islamabad,” he said.

“What today really represents is the beginning of a technical negotiation that’s not going to solve every disagreement, but is going to allow us to sit together as teams, for the first time really in history, to figure out what matters most to the respective parties, to settle those issues, to solve those issues, and get to a better tomorrow,” he told reporters.

“The reason why the political leadership of the respective countries is here is because we wanted to, first of all, set up the structure for these technical negotiations, and second of all, make sure that our teams have our full support and know they can always call on us to break through any barriers.”

Thanking Trump “for empowering us to find a diplomatic solution”, Vance said a great deal had “already been accomplished” and the team looked forward to seeing “how much more we can accomplish together”.

“Can we change relations in the Middle East, or do we go back to doing things the old way?” he said. “Where Iran and the Gulf have had an unfriendly relationship, or Iran has been a driver of regional instability? We see a future where everyone can work together to promote peace and prosperity for everyone.”

Vance said Trump was committed to a “full regional ceasefire”, including Lebanon. These kinds of ceasefires are always “a little bit messy”, but they had seen progress over the last few days, he added.

Vance also shared appreciation for PM Shehbaz and CDF Munir, saying: “I have joked that I have two very, very important people in my life. An Indian and a Pakistani. The Indian is my wife, and the Pakistani is Field Marshal Munir,” he said, adding that he had “probably talked to Field Marshal Munir more than anyone else over the last few months”.

“If Iran is willing to give up nuclear weapon ambitions for the long term, the US is willing to transform relations with them,” he said.

The president, he said, had urged him to “turn over a new leaf to transform our relationship with the people of Iran, and to extend an outstretched hand”.

Qatari Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman bin Jassim Al Thani, also speaking at the opening ceremony, thanked both the US and Iranian delegations for their efforts to make peace in the Middle East.

“I think that every one of you has highlighted how important and historic this is, not only on the security of the region but also for the security of the world and for the global economy,” the Qatari PM said.

“I would like to thank all of you for your leadership and determination that put us in this room. This is not really the main celebration, this is just the beginning and I wish everyone all the best,” Al Thani said.

He added that Qatar would remain dedicated to the partnership to support mediation efforts until a solution is reached.

Before the start of their remarks, Iran’s Araghchi briefly walked into the room and embraced PM Shehbaz, the White House Press Pool Reports said in a statement released on X.

“He was there just a short time before walking out again and did not during that time interact with Vance, who was on the other side of the room,” it added.

The media were ushered out of the meeting room as the talks began.

Later, PM Shehbaz again spoke to the media and praised the Iranian delegation’s dignity and attempts at de-escalation.

“I think they genuinely mean to promote peace in the region,” PM Shehbaz said of the Iranian leadership, adding, “So does President Trump.”

“I have no second thoughts about the fact that he is a man of peace — He has demonstrated that during the war between Pakistan and India,” he said.

PM Shehbaz was optimistic about the “renewed friendship” with the US, and hoped it would grow into a relationship of close coordination and cooperation between the two countries.

Delegations meet ahead of talks

The quadrilateral meeting followed bilateral and tripartite meetings between the different parties participating in the talks.

Iranian state television said that delegations from Iran, Qatar and the US were holding a meeting to discuss a ceasefire in Lebanon and Iran’s frozen assets.

Ahead of the quadrilateral meeting, PM Shehbaz and CDF Munir met the US negotiating team, led by VP Vance.

The Pakistani delegation also met the Iranian delegation led by Ghalibaf. Iran’s Araghchi, Interior Minister Mohsin Naqvi and Information Minister Attaullah Tarar were also part of the meeting.

Pakistani delegation arrives

Delegations from the US, Iran, Qatar, and Pakistan had arrived at the venue on Sunday morning amid tight security and heavy media presence.

The Prime Minister’s Office said PM Shehbaz and his delegation arrived in Zurich earlier on Sunday morning to participate in the talks, after which they travelled to Burgenstock.

State broadcaster PTV reported that the premier was accompanied by Information Minister Ataullah Tarar and other senior government officials. State media also confirmed the arrival of CDF Munir and Interior Minister Mohsin Naqvi at the Burgenstock resort.

US, Iran teams arrive

US Vice President JD Vance and Iran’s Parliament Speaker and head negotiator of the Iranian side Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf had also arrived for the talks on implementing the deal on Sunday.

Vance arrived at Emmen Air Base at 5:59am (08:59 PKT), according to his spokesperson. He had taken off for Switzerland on Saturday, saying negotiators would discuss Iran’s nuclear programme and the Lebanon ceasefire.

“I think we’re going to hopefully make progress on the nuclear issue, make progress on the Lebanon ceasefire issue. Those are the two big things that I think we’re to be focused on,” Vance told reporters before departing from Joint Base Andrews, saying he could only join the talks “for a day or two”.

Vance said the situation in Lebanon was “actually getting better”. “It’s going to be something we’re just going to have to continuously manage to ensure that… Israel and Lebanon are both safe and secure,” he said.

“The big problem is that you have somebody will shoot and then somebody will respond, and you kind of have a chicken and egg problem where you’ve just got to stop the shooting for long enough to get the ceasefire to keep hold.”

US negotiators Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff were already in Switzerland handling technical elements of the talks, Vance said earlier.

Iran’s delegation, which landed in Switzerland in the early hours of Sunday, arrived at Burgenstock for the talks by early afternoon.

Iran’s official news agency IRNA said the delegation was led by Ghalibaf and included Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi.

Ali Bagheri (Deputy for International Affairs of the Supreme National Security Council Secretariat), Central Bank Governor Abdolnaser Hemmati, National Iranian Oil Company CEO Hamid Bovard, Deputy FM Kazem Gharibabad and Esmail Baqaei were also part of the team.

US-Iran deal

The 14-point agreement was signed by Trump and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, with PM Shehbaz signing as mediator.

Under the deal, Tehran and Washington have agreed on a framework to end the war, reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and a 60-day timeline for further talks.

The deal, ending more than 100 days of war, has been widely welcomed by the international community.

Once a final agreement is reached on Iran’s nuclear ambitions, the US will also facilitate the release of a $300 billion reconstruction fund supported by regional nations, the deal says.

Earlier this week, the US and Iran finally reached an agreement to stop the war. Pakistan, which played a central role in said agreement has been acknowledged and praised by the international community. But is this where it ends for the country? Or can the Shehbaz-led government convert the diplomatic visibility and influence into that rare opening that actually guarantees dividends?

Before we answer that question, however, it is important to acknowledge that the agreement, brokered after weeks of intense diplomacy between the United States and Iran, is not a peace treaty. It is an interim framework that has merely paused a dangerous confrontation and created a 60-day negotiating window during which the most difficult questions, including sanctions relief, nuclear restrictions, and regional security arrangements, will have to be addressed.

The fragility of the arrangement was evident even before its conclusion, with disagreements linked to Lebanon threatening to derail the process at a late stage, and Qatar eventually stepping in to facilitate implementation mechanisms and financial assurances.

That reality is the first lesson Islamabad should absorb.

Opening negotiations was the difficult part, but perhaps the harder task will be converting this diplomatic breakthrough into durable strategic gain.

Why did Pakistan get involved?

Pakistan did not involve itself in the process merely out of altruism; it had compelling reasons of its own. A prolonged Iran-US confrontation, or worse a regional war, would at a minimum have directly affected Pakistan’s security environment and economic stability. The country shares a nearly 900-kilometre border with Iran and remains heavily dependent on Gulf energy supplies. It is, therefore, vulnerable to oil price shocks and maritime disruptions, and any continuation of conflict in the Gulf would carry immediate consequences for inflation, energy security, and economic recovery.

Seen in that context, Pakistan’s mediation effort was less an act of charity than an exercise in strategic self-preservation pursued through diplomacy.

The first dividend is already visible as Pakistan has successfully reminded major capitals that it is capable of playing a useful role in moments of international crises.

In recent years, the country’s international profile has often been shaped by discussions of economic distress, political instability, or security concerns, but the mediation effort briefly altered that narrative. As a result, Pakistan was no longer being discussed as a problem to be managed but as a channel through which a problem could be addressed. This shift in perception mattered.

In Washington, utility often translates into access, and in Gulf capitals, states that can maintain dialogue across competing camps are valued assets. Broadly speaking, in diplomacy, relevance is measured not by wealth or military strength alone but by whether others need your participation when circumstances become difficult.

Pakistan has earned some prestige through its role, but that is only the residue of diplomacy, not a substitute for policy outcomes.

The prize

For Pakistan, the real prize lies in two interconnected domains — security and economics.

The security dividend is perhaps the most immediate, as reduced hostility between Washington and Tehran would lower pressure on Pakistan’s western frontier and decrease the likelihood of regional instability spilling across borders. It would also lessen the prospect of sudden energy disruptions that trigger domestic economic stress.

More importantly, successful mediation has created space for Pakistan to manage relations simultaneously with Tehran, Riyadh, Abu Dhabi, Doha, Beijing, and Washington without being forced into uncomfortable choices. That balancing act has always been difficult, but it remains one of the country’s most important diplomatic assets.

The economic opportunities are potentially more transformative, although far from guaranteed.

If sanctions are gradually eased and Iran begins reintegrating into regional and global commerce, trade routes across the wider Gulf region will inevitably adjust. For decades, much of Iran’s commercial interaction with international markets has been constrained by sanctions architecture and political restrictions. Any sustained opening will, therefore, create demand for new transit arrangements, financial channels, and logistical partnerships. This is a possibility Pakistan should be preparing for now.

For instance, this year’s conflict disrupted a commercial relationship that had long underpinned trade across the Gulf. For decades, the UAE, particularly Dubai, served as Iran’s principal commercial gateway to international markets, functioning as a major re-export, logistics, and financial hub for Iranian businesses. However, the conflict exposed the vulnerabilities of that dependence, after the UAE restricted Iranian businesses and banks operating on its territory, prompting debate within Iran about diversifying trade routes and reducing reliance on that corridor.

Though since the ceasefire and subsequent US-Iran negotiations, Abu Dhabi has moved cautiously to restore commercial channels and reassure markets, the relationship has not returned to its pre-war equilibrium. It is now increasingly characterised by a duality in which strategic suspicion born of conflict coexists with a desire to revive trade, investment, and shipping links. For Pakistan, this situation, which has compelled Iranian businesses and policymakers to reassess supply chains, logistics corridors, and commercial partnerships has created opportunities.

Pakistan must, therefore, position itself as one of those alternative routes rather than remaining a spectator.

This is where Gwadar assumes greater significance.

The geographical advantage

For years, discussions about Gwadar have oscillated between excessive optimism and skepticism, but the reality is somewhere in between. Geography has already given Pakistan an advantage, with Gwadar sitting at the intersection of key maritime and overland corridors and lying relatively close to Iran’s southeastern region. This has given Pakistan a natural opening for Iranian businesses exploring alternative gateways for trade, logistics, and warehousing.

But geography alone never creates commerce.

To become a credible corridor, Pakistan will need a strategy and, more importantly, the capacity and will to seize emerging opportunities. Without these fundamentals, Gwadar will remain a strategic concept. The same logic applies to the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor.

For much of its existence, CPEC has been viewed primarily through the lens of China-Pakistan bilateral cooperation, but a more economically open Iran would create the possibility, however distant, of extending regional connectivity westward. Energy exchange, transit trade, logistics hubs, and industrial processing networks linking Pakistan, Iran, and parts of Central Asia could then become easier to imagine in a less hostile geopolitical environment.

Yet there is a credibility challenge that Islamabad must confront honestly.

During the conflict period, Pakistan issued several Special Regulatory Orders intended to facilitate emergency commercial interaction with Iran. These measures generated considerable interest among traders and business groups on both sides of the border and created expectations that Pakistan was preparing for a broader framework of commercial engagement once tensions subsided.

The problem, however, is that implementation of these SROs has not matched announcement, according to diplomatic and business sources.

These circles are essentially pointing to gaps between regulatory intent and operational execution, with measures announced on paper often moving slowly through the administrative system.

This may appear to be a bureaucratic issue, but it is in fact a strategic one.

Geography alone won’t do it

States do not become trade corridors through geography alone; rather, they become trade corridors through reliability. If Pakistan wishes to attract commercial activity that might otherwise flow through established Gulf channels, it must convince investors and traders that commitments made in Islamabad will be implemented in practice. Otherwise, opportunities will simply migrate elsewhere.

The potential demand is already visible.

During the US blockade, reports emerged of hundreds of Iranian vessels carrying essential goods waiting off Karachi and nearby waters. On one hand, the episode offered a glimpse of what Pakistan’s maritime geography could potentially support under different circumstances, but on the other is a reality under which most of the ships anchored near Karachi are yet to be cleared for return to Iran.

An Iranian business delegation from Mashhad is currently in Pakistan to explore imports of Pakistani meat products and related commercial arrangements. On its own, the visit is not transformative and will not alter bilateral trade statistics overnight, but such interactions matter precisely because they are practical rather than symbolic.

Large economic relationships instead of emerging from grand announcements, rise through hundreds of smaller commercial decisions involving importers, exporters, logistics operators, banks, and regulators. This is where Pakistan has frequently struggled.

The country has often demonstrated an ability to generate strategic moments through diplomatic success while underperforming in converting them into sustained economic gain.

That is why there is concern that although the Islamabad Memorandum may have created a window of opportunity, whether or not that window is exploited will depend less on events in Tehran or Washington than on decisions taken in Islamabad.

Pakistan may have done the difficult work of opening the door, but the harder task now is to ensure it does not itself remain outside describing its achievement while others walk through and collect the benefits.

United States President Donald Trump has said that Pakistan “really helped” Washington with the memorandum of understanding (MoU) with Iran.

He made the remarks during an interview with American news outlet Axios. During the interview, the US president was asked about which global leaders he “liked”.

In addition to Chinese President Xi Jinping, Chinese President Xi Jinping, Trump talked about Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, before mentioning Pakistan’s leadership.

“In Pakistan, you have the field marshal, who is great. Munir, he’s great. And you have the prime minister, and they just get along great … He totally respects the prime minister. It’s a beautiful thing to see,” he said, talking about Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and Chief of Defence Forces and Chief of Army Staff Field Marshal Asim Munir.

“But they really helped us with this deal. They knew the Iranians, they knew the people and they were good,” he said.

During the interview, Trump was also asked about the lessons he had learned about the “limits” on his power.

“There are no limits,” he said.

“I haven’t learned that lesson yet. I know there are, but there are no limits. We defeated them totally militarily. I was asked by Pakistan because they’re close to please not do anymore. I said, I like them a lot,” he said.

Talking about last year’s military conflict with India, he said, “You know, I stopped Pakistan from fighting India, two nuclear nations, and the prime minister of Pakistan said, ‘President Trump saved 50 million lives’. They were going to use nuclear weapons.

“Eleven planes were shot down. They were at it. And I was hearing about it, then I saw some really terrible pictures. They were going at it, Pakistan and India. They have gone at it in the past, but this was, and they’re both nuclear-armed, heavily, and they were going to use those nuclear weapons. And the prime minister of Pakistan said, ‘Donald Trump saved 50 million lives’. But it’s not 50. I think it was much more than that. Fifty is nothing when you look at 1.5 billion people just in India alone. So I think that there are no limits,” he said.

“We have the most powerful military in the world by far. Who else could have done a blockade like that? I did a naval blockade where not one ship was able to get through. Some tried. They didn’t, you know, it didn’t last very long,” he said.

It is worth mentioning that the US president has repeatedly commented on the brief military conflict between Pakistan and India in May 2025. He has also praised PM Shehbaz and CDF Munir on several occasions, specifically calling the latter a “highly respected general”, a “great fighter” and “my favourite”.

Thursday proved to be a red-letter day for Pakistan, as the country awoke to news of a long-awaited peace deal finally being signed between the US and Iran, heralding an end to the bitter animosity that has afflicted the Middle East and plunged the world into crisis for months.

The honour of announcing that the ‘Islamabad MoU’ had been ‘electronically’ signed by all parties, fittingly fell to Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, who put his signature to the historic document after US President Donald Trump and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, bringing it into effect two days earlier than previously expected.

Earlier in the day, Trump signed the document during a reception at the Palace of Versailles — also the venue for the landmark treaty that ended World War I — with French President Emmanuel Macron looking over his shoulder. Meanwhile, Iranian media released photos of Dr Pezeshkian signing the deal in his office.

As the sound of Israeli artillery shells echoed around their hilltop homes close to Lebanon, residents of Trump Heights struggled to hide their dismay at the deal to end the war on Iran, but were not giving up on their hero in the White House.

Under the US-Iran agreement announced earlier this week to end the Middle East war, fighting is also supposed to cease between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon.

In Israel, the agreement is widely viewed as undermining the country’s security and its acceptance by Washington as a strategic failure for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

In Trump Heights, a community of small prefabricated homes perched on a hilltop just 15 kilometres from the Lebanon border, the deal with Iran has not proved popular with residents.

But for those living in the settlement, named in homage to the US president, the agreement was not cause to completely abandon their community’s namesake.

“We give President Trump the benefit of the doubt that he is making the right decisions for America, and that he is also trying to help his allies — and, of course, the most important ally in the region is Israel,” said 32-year-old Shlomo Schlechter.

But “we understand that American and Israeli interests do not always go hand in hand,” the law student said, adding that he still trusted the US president to make the right decision as the deal’s details are hashed out over the next 60 days.

Like other residents AFP spoke to, Schlechter said he did not expect the deal to hold, nor Israel to withdraw from Lebanon.

“We hope that President Trump will remain firm, and when he sees that the Iranians are not serious — as I expect will happen — he will return and know how to deal with them with a heavy hand, as he knows how to do,” he told AFP.

‘Very thankful’

From Trump Heights, Israeli artillery could be heard pounding its northern neighbour on Friday morning, after four Israeli soldiers were killed the previous night.

By late afternoon, a US official said Israel and Hezbollah had agreed a ceasefire that began at 4:00pm local time (1300 GMT), brokered by US and Qatari mediators following talks with Israel and Iran.

“When someone does something good for you, you’re not gonna hate them right when they do something you agree a little less with,” Dalia Ben Shabbat, a 38-year-old resident of Trump Heights, told AFP.

“Regarding President Trump himself, we’re very thankful for what he’s done for Israel until now,” the architecture student and mother-of-four said.

Hours before the US-Iran deal was announced earlier this week, Trump excoriated Netanyahu for launching attacks in Lebanon that threatened to derail it.

“He’s a very difficult guy,” Trump said of Netanyahu, “and to be honest with you, he should be very thankful to us for doing this. Because if Iran had a nuclear weapon, Israel wouldn’t be around for two hours.”

On Thursday, US Vice President JD Vance also issued an extraordinary rebuke to Israeli critics of the Iran deal, warning them not to alienate their “only powerful ally” left in the world.

“Donald J. Trump is the only head of state in the entire world who is sympathetic to the nation of Israel at this moment in time, and he happens to be the head of state of the world superpower,” Vance said.

But in Trump Heights, emblazoned with Israeli and US flags, residents didn’t take the comments by the US executive to heart.

“If the person is good, the person is good,” Ben Shabbat said of the US president.

‘Vichy deal’

Trump Heights, which sits in the Israeli-annexed Golan Heights, is an homage to Donald Trump, who in 2019 recognised Israel’s sovereignty over the strategic plateau, making the US the first, and so far only, country to do so.

While the community didn’t seem to have fully abandoned the US president, some residents voiced strong disappointment about his deal with Iran.

“This deal is the equivalent of Vichy France making a deal with Nazi Germany,” one middle-aged man in a wheelchair who declined to be named said, referring to France’s World War II government, which collaborated with the Nazis to send Jews to concentration camps.

A teenager who said he had been out of school for the last two months because of the war said he felt the deal didn’t take into account Israelis living near Lebanon.

“If there is a ceasefire with Iran, people in central and south Israel will stop receiving Iranian missiles, but here in the north we will still have Hezbollah rockets,” he said.

WASHINGTON: The US Department of Defence needs $80 billion to cover costs from the Iran war as well as other non-war-related bills, Deputy Defence Secretary Stephen Feinberg told lawmakers in phone calls this week, the Wall Street Journal reported on Thursday, citing people familiar with the matter.

A full US supplemental request, which will include money for the Pentagon as well as non-defence priorities such as farm and disaster relief, could be sent to lawmakers in the coming days, the newspaper added.

Reuters could not immediately verify the report. The Pentagon declined to comment. The White House was not immediately available for comment outside business hours when contacted by Reuters.

Pentagon leaders have said they risk running out of money for operations in the coming months unless Congress passes a new wartime spending bill, the newspaper said. The military may need to cut back on training and troop deployment along the US-Mexico border as part of President Donald Trump’s immigration crackdown, it added.

A full supplemental request could be sent to lawmakers in coming days

Some of the $80bn, if approved, would go towards munitions, personnel pay and ship operations, the Journal cited a source as saying.

The Iran war has cost around $25bn, a Pentagon official told Reuters in April providing the first official estimate of war costs. However, the full cost of the conflict, which Trump began alongside Israel on February 28, has remained an open question on Capitol Hill and an initial $200bn request for additional funding met stiff opposition from lawmakers.

White House budget director Russell Vought told a hearing in April of the House of Representatives Budget Committee that he had no estimate for the cost of the war, as he defended Trump’s request for a $1.5 trillion annual military budget.

The proposed budget reflects Republican priorities ahead of November’s midterm elections, where the party is trying to keep control of Congress but is facing growing voter anxiety over rising living costs, high energy prices and the financial burden of the Iran war.

Trump has faced backlash from Americans who accuse him of pouring billions of taxpayer dollars into the Middle East conflict while oil prices and inflation skyrocket in the United States.

Published in Dawn, June 20th, 2026

• Truce brokered by US, Qatari negotiators with Iran’s help
• Iran-US meeting in Switzerland postponed
• Tehran ‘waives’ Strait of Hormuz transit fees for 60 days
• PM Shehbaz, Saudi crown prince discuss Islamabad peace deal

BEIRUT: Israel and Hezbollah agreed to a ceasefire on Friday, a US official said, after an escalation in hostilities in Lebanon sorely tested the US-Iranian interim deal to end the wider Middle East conflict.

A senior Israeli official and two Hezbollah sources confirmed the ceasefire to Reuters, which the US official said was due to begin at 1300 GMT. “If Hezbollah does not attack us, then for us it is not a time of war,” the Israeli official said, adding that Israeli forces would remain in southern Lebanon.

The Iran deal requires the United States, Iran and their allies to declare an immediate and permanent termination of military operations on all fronts, including Lebanon. Violence has picked up over the course of the week after initially abating when the agreement was first announced.

Hezbollah lawmaker Hassan Fadlallah earlier said that Iran had informed the group that talks with Washington could not continue without a comprehensive ceasefire.

The senior US official said that the ceasefire was worked out by negotiators for the US and Qataris with help from Iran.

“Hezbollah and Israel have agreed to a ceasefire,” the US official said. “We understand that after the exchange of fire earlier today, Israel and Hezbollah are now in a ceasefire.”

Israel, which was not consulted in the negotiations that led to this week’s US memorandum of understanding with Iran, has bristled at the apparent requirement that it halt its campaign in Lebanon, which it invaded after Hezbollah fired across the border in solidarity with Tehran on March 2.

The Israeli official said Israel had the freedom to act against emerging threats and threats to its forces and territory.

Earlier, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had vowed to “extract a very heavy price” from Hezbollah for the killing of the four soldiers.

Israeli officials have voiced anger at the US-Iran pact, saying it does not go far enough to address Israeli concerns over Iran’s nuclear programme.

Iran-US meeting postponed

Meanwhile, a planned meeting between Iranian and US officials in Switzerland on Friday has been postponed, with arrangements underway for talks in the coming days, Iran’s Foreign Ministry said on Friday.

The ministry said the meeting was no longer urgent because a memorandum of understanding on ending the war had already been signed digitally between the two sides.

The ministry spokesperson, Esmaeil Baghaei, added that negotiations on a final agreement would depend on the start and continued implementation of specified terms outlined in the memorandum.

Meanwhile, the head of the Iranian parliament’s national security committee says the Trump administration has shown a “failure to commit to the first clause” of the MoU with Tehran. That first clause states that both sides agree to “the immediate and permanent termination of military operations on all fronts, including in Lebanon”.

“America’s failure to commit to the first clause of the agreement demonstrates that America still lacks the will to gain the trust of the Iranian nation,” Ebrahim Azizi wrote on X.

Separately, Iran’s Strait of Hormuz body said on Friday it would waive planned fees to use the strait during a 60-day negotiation period under the memorandum of understanding signed with the United States this week.

Ships seeking passage through the strait while the interim agreement is in force must submit transit requests at least 48 hours before arrival, Iran’s Persian Gulf Strait Authority (PGSA) said in a notice.

Iran would waive fees for security, safety, environmental services and related insurance during the period, while requiring vessels to coordinate routes and transit times in advance due to areas affected by mines and to ensure safe navigation.

Shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz rose to its busiest in two months after a deal to halt the US-Iran war, maritime trackers said on Friday.

A total of 25 commercial vessels crossed the newly reopened strait on Thursday, the highest number since mid-April, according to data from tracking firm AXSMarine — more than three times the average of just over seven a day since early March.

In a sign of traffic picking up in the region, empty trucks queued for up to three kilometres outside the UAE port of Korfakkan just south of the strait, as at least four container ships unloaded there, an eyewitness told AFP.

Other ships could be seen on the hazy horizon, apparently waiting their turn to dock and unload, the eyewitness said, requesting anonymity.

PM-MBS call

Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif on Friday held a telephone conversation with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman of Saudi Arabia and congratulated him on the signing of the historic Islamabad Peace Deal.

According to the PM Office, the prime minister expressed deep appreciation to the crown prince for his steadfast and consistent support to Pakistan’s peace efforts and paid tribute to him for leading Saudi Arabia with great wisdom and sagacity throughout this crisis.

He said that it was only with the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia’s strong support, as well as the support of other Gulf states, that the peace deal between Iran and the US was signed within a few months.

On the occasion, Prince Mohammed bin Salman congratulated the premier and praised the untiring efforts of Field Marshal Asim Munir, that led to the successful signing of the peace deal.

The two leaders agreed that now, it would be vital to ensure that the next phase of negotiations between Iran and the US progresses smoothly, and the outstanding issues are resolved through dialogue and diplomacy.

Syed Irfan Raza in Islamabad also contributed to this report

Published in Dawn, June 20th, 2026

THOUGH uncertainty may surround the fate of the US-Iran MoU, throughout this episode — from the start of the war on Feb 28 to the electronic signing of the document this week — Pakistan has played a crucial role in securing a diplomatic off-ramp. Other states, such as Qatar, Egypt, Turkiye etc. have also played a significant part, but it is Pakistan that has secured top billing in this geopolitical drama.

This country’s efforts, both public and those behind closed doors, have helped prevent the war from metastasising into an even more brutal conflict. Nations across the world have appreciated Islamabad’s proactive diplomacy. The US president has often expressed his fondness for this country’s political and military leadership, while the Iranian president has warmly recognised Pakistan’s role in securing the MoU.

The fact is that despite its limitations, Pakistan has been punching above its weight for decades, bringing together disparate powers in a bid to ease global tensions. An oft-quoted parallel is the role played by Pakistan in bringing together Nixon’s America and Mao’s China.

At this moment of international glory for the country, the rulers also need to think about how to apply Pakistan’s diplomatic acumen to lessen regional tensions, as well as to encourage internal political rapprochement. Islamabad has succeeded in bringing together bitter ideological foes that have not seen eye to eye for nearly five decades, and prevented further conflict. It should now apply the same diplomatic determination to improving relations in the neighbourhood.

Granted the country has made several attempts to build bridges with two difficult neighbours — India to the east, Taliban-ruled Afghanistan to the west — with little reciprocity from either state. But such efforts should be renewed in the interest of the country’s security and economic development. Pakistan, without compromising on its key interests, should again extend the hand of friendship to Kabul and New Delhi, and invite them to resolve all outstanding issues at the negotiating table. If they shun the offer of dialogue, it will be clear for all to see exactly who is uninterested in peace in South Asia. Pakistan’s diplomats are second to none, and if these states seek to engage this country constructively, a new modus vivendi for the subcontinent can be reached.

Similarly, on the domestic front, the focus needs to be on national reconciliation. Political tribes can differ in their ideologies, but a level playing field must be provided to all, and an atmosphere of tolerance and respect for difference of opinion must be created. The prime minister hinted at the need for national unity in the House on Friday. It is time these intentions were translated into action, as without internal political cohesion, development will be impossible, and the gains made on the foreign front may not be sustainable.

Published in Dawn, June 20th, 2026

Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, following a phone conversation with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman, said the two leaders agreed that the next phase of Iran-US negotiations must be “guided by a firm commitment to dialogue and diplomacy, and vigilance against any attempt to undermine the peace process”.

On Thursday, a long-awaited peace deal was finally signed between the United States and Iran after a preliminary agreement was reached between the two sides earlier in the week, heralding an end to the bitter animosity that has afflicted the Middle East for months.

In a post on his X handle, the premier said he held a “warm and most cordial” conversation with the Saudi crown prince and thanked him for the kingdom’s steadfast support for Pakistan’s peace efforts.

The premier also congratulated the crown prince on the signing of the “Islamabad Peace Deal”.

“His Royal Highness’s wise leadership and the Kingdom’s unwavering commitment to regional peace and stability remained vital guiding forces throughout this crisis,” said the post by the prime minister.

PM Shehbaz further stated that he “expressed complete satisfaction” with the excellent state of bilateral relations between the two countries and added that Islamabad looked forward to further strengthening its economic partnership with Riyadh.

The memorandum of understanding was electronically signed by all parties, with PM Shehbaz putting his signature to the historic document as mediator after US President Donald Trump and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, bringing it into effect two days earlier than previously expected. The signing of the deal was originally scheduled for Friday in Switzerland.

Under the deal, Washington and Tehran have agreed on a framework to end the war, reopen the Strait of Hormuz and negotiate on key issues within 60 days.

However, talks that were planned to take place in Switzerland on Friday were later postponed, as US Vice President JD Vance dropped plans to travel to Geneva.

“The planned talks between the US, Iran, Qatar and Pakistan have been postponed,” the Swiss foreign ministry said in a message to AFP.

“Switzerland remains ready to facilitate these talks. The relevant preparatory work at Burgenstock is continuing,” it added, without providing a new date for the talks.

The war, which began on February 28 with US and Israeli air attacks on Iran, has killed at least 7,000 people, sent energy prices soaring and shaken global markets.

Throughout the conflict, Pakistan has remained actively involved in mediating for peace. It brokered a ceasefire between the US and Iran on April 8 and also hosted historic direct talks between the two in Islamabad that month.

Soon after the first round of talks in early April, the US blockade of Iranian ports in the Strait of Hormuz became one of the sharpest disputes.

Pakistan and Saudi Arabia have long shared a multifaceted relationship rooted in strategic military cooperation, mutual economic interests, and shared Islamic heritage. These ties have encompassed economic assistance and energy supplies, with Riyadh being a significant source of financial aid and oil for Islamabad.

In September of last year, Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman signed a “Strategic Mutual Defence Agreement” in Riyadh, pledging that any attack on either nation would be treated as an act of aggression against both.

United States Vice President JD Vance is poised to take on his biggest role yet on the international stage as President Donald Trump’s chief negotiator to end the three-month war with Iran, a moment ​that could shape Vance’s prospects as a White House successor.

The two nations agreed to a provisional peace agreement on Wednesday that suspended hostilities but left core issues unresolved, deferring decisions on Iran’s ‌nuclear programme, its support for regional groups and the economically vital Strait of Hormuz to 60 days of talks.

The discussions are a high-risk scenario for all sides in the conflict, the broader Middle East, and for Vance’s political ambitions. And the situation remains fluid: Vance cancelled a planned Thursday night flight to Switzerland for the start of talks, though the White House said the US delegation is “prepared to depart at the first available opportunity”.

The fast-moving developments coincide with the publication of Vance’s book on his conversion to Catholicism, Communion, and a media ​tour to promote it, during which he discussed his faith while positioning himself as the Iran deal’s top booster.

The campaign-style push reached a crescendo on Thursday with a White House news conference where Vance laid out ​US hopes for a final peace deal and offered what some observers called one of the strongest rebukes of Israel in US history, while also swatting away a question ⁠about a potential presidential run.

“If the Iranians don’t change their behaviour, their military and their nuclear programme is still destroyed,” Vance said. “If they do change their behaviour, then they are going to have a transformative relationship with the Middle ​East, and the Middle East will have a transformative relationship with the people of Iran.”

Fellow Republicans have underscored the significance of Vance’s high-profile role in the Iran deal.

Senator Lindsey Graham of South Carolina, a leader in the party’s foreign policy ​establishment, called Vance the “architect” of the peace agreement, and said the vice president should present a final deal to the Senate for approval.

Trump joked on Wednesday that Vance had little to gain and much to lose from this assignment.

“If it works out, I’m going to take the credit. If it doesn’t work out, I’m blaming JD!” the president chortled during a news conference at the G7 summit in Evian-les-Bains, France.

Representatives from Vance’s office declined to comment for this report.

Defending Trump

Trump ran for office promising lower prices and an end ​to what he called “forever wars” in the Middle East. Instead, inflation has accelerated, and he launched strikes on Iran on February 28. Some Republican allies have accused Trump of granting Tehran major concessions to alleviate the price pressures caused ​by the conflict.

While Trump has touted the provisional peace deal as a total military and diplomatic victory, it appears at this point to have advanced few of his goals from the outset of the war: Iran’s theocratic government remains in place, it retains ‌ballistic missiles and ⁠a stockpile of highly enriched uranium, and it continues supporting its allies such as Hezbollah in Lebanon.

Vance has had to defend the president’s decisions while trying to establish some distance from Trump’s falling approval ratings. He has attempted to do so by pointing to marginal economic improvements while declaring “there’s a lot more work to do”.

“Have a little bit of faith in the president of the United States. The idea that he is going to strike a deal that’s bad for the American people, it’s preposterous,” Vance said on Thursday.

He told conservative media host Megyn Kelly earlier in the week that he remained engaged on the Iran war because distancing himself from the effort would be “a very immature way to approach ​the political process”, while accusing hawkish conservatives of seeking ​to continue US attacks “until every bomb has been dropped, ⁠or until every Iranian is dead”.

Vance has cautioned against intensifying the war and advocated for Trump to pursue a diplomatic exit. He is one of the leaders of an ascendant wing of the Republican Party that hopes to restrain US global military pursuits.

He is not without critics.

“In my opinion, the vice president — the chief negotiator on this project — has ​not well served the president,” right-wing media figure Ben Shapiro said on Thursday on Fox News.

Trump appears to have elevated Vance as the face of the agreement ​rather than Secretary of State Marco ⁠Rubio — traditionally the country’s chief diplomat — triggering questions from administration allies about Rubio’s role in negotiations.

A White House official, speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss private conversations, said no one on Trump’s team voiced opposition to the provisional peace deal.

Rubio is also seen as a contender for the 2028 Republican presidential nomination, though neither he nor Vance have said they plan to seek the presidency.

The State Department did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

The move to promote Vance, though, is typical of ⁠the way Trump ​has managed cabinet officials in his second term, said one person close to the White House, who spoke on condition of anonymity to ​discuss private conversations.

“This back and forth is throwing people off, but Trump knows what he’s doing,” the person said. “He is literally conducting a tryout in real time.”

Throughout it all has been Vance’s book, which he has jokingly promoted in nearly every media engagement alongside discussion of the day’s ​news.

Facing a grilling about Iran, immigration and civil rights on ABC’s “The View” on Tuesday, the vice president quipped: “Let’s talk about the book — I’m here to sell books.”

Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif said on Friday that a “significant” reduction in fuel prices would be announced later in the day, following the swift decrease in global oil prices after the signing of a Pakistan-brokered memorandum of understanding (MoU) between the US and Iran to cease hostilities.

“Today, we have to announce the weekly revision in oil and petrol prices. And I will say just this much: as promised by the government to pass on the relief to the people after oil prices fall, a significant decrease in the prices will be announced today,” he said during an address to the National Assembly (NA).

He noted that global oil prices were swiftly falling after the recent agreement between the US and Iran. “Surely, they will decline further,” he added.

The premier then recounted that the prices had risen sharply after the US-Israeli war on Iran began, resulting in a “storm of inflation”.

“While the people of Pakistan made every humanly possible effort to save the economy, the federal government immediately spent Rs128 billion rupees to bring inflation down to the lowest possible level,” he recalled.

But now, he said, “the sun of progress and prosperity is about to rise”.

In this connection, he also thanked provincial governments for “extending their full support and leaving no stone unturned in providing relief to the people”.

He further thanked Petroleum Minister Ali Pervaiz Malik, Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb, Federal Board of Revenue Chairman Rashid Mahmood Langrial and Planning Minister Ahsan Iqbal for their efforts to keep the economy on track as the world reeled from the financial impact of the US-Israeli war on Iran.

Pakistan, as well as the rest of the world, dealt with the economic impact of the US-Israeli war for months before the MoU was signed on Thursday.

The war, which began on February 28, resulted in a fuel crunch as Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz — a key maritime corridor that served as the passage for 20 per cent of the world’s oil and gas supply before the conflict — in retaliation of attacks by the US and Israel.

Consequently, oil prices spiralled, and to deal the impact. PM Shehbaz’s government initially hiked petrol and diesel prices by Rs55 per litre on March 6 and announced unprecedented austerity measures on March 9. The prices have been undergoing upward or downward weekly revisions since.

Meanwhile, Pakistan also continued to lead mediation efforts between the US and Iran and Thursday proved to be a red-letter day for the country, as it awoke to news of a long-awaited peace deal finally being signed between the US and Iran. Under the deal, the two sides have agreed on a framework to end the war, reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and a 60-day timeline for further talks.

Soon after the news of the deal, a major shift in oil prices was also witnessed, and they fell to their lowest since the start of the war.

Earlier, Petroleum Minister Ali Pervaiz Malik said PM Shehbaz had directed authorities to immediately pass on the benefit of declining international oil prices to consumers.

‘Great success’

In the NA, the prime minister began his address by noting that Pakistan had earned respect globally after mediating between the US and Iran.

“Several countries have sought such respect for centuries, but could not get the respect that God has blessed Pakistan with today. From Japan to Saudi Arabia, from Kuala Lumpur to Casablanca and from Mexico to India, if any country’s name is reverberating with respect and honour, it is Pakistan’s,” he said.

The premier said that if the National Assembly adopted a resolution in this regard, it would not just be an affirmation of Pakistan’s “great success” in its peace endeavour but would also send a message of unity and solidarity to the world.

He urged both sides of the aisle to collectively send a message to the world that, despite “our political differences, we will always be united” for national causes.

The premier said if he would not specifically name those who had worked day and night for peace between the US and Iran, even at the cost of repetition, “I will not be fair to myself, to yourself, to this honourable House and to the people of Pakistan”.

“It is an undeniable truth, whether we like it or not, that the most significant role in this is of Field Marshal Asim Munir, who worked tirelessly day and night, sacrificing his sleep for the last two to three months, to restore peace,” he said.

He also thanked Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar for contributing to peace efforts and Interior Minister Mohsin Naqvi, whom PM Shehbaz said “played his part regarding Iran”.

He also congratulated Leader of the Opposition Mehmood Khan Achakzai and other opposition members, PPP Chairman Bilawal Bhutto-Zardari and other allies of the ruling PML-N.

The premier then shared that he held a telephone call with Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian on Thursday evening. During the call, he said, the Iranian president repeatedly expressed his gratitude to me and to the entire Pakistani nation for standing by them in difficult times.

“I invited him to Pakistan. I told him the entire nation is ready to give him a warm welcome and tell the world that Iran and Pakistan are not just neighbouring countries, but brother countries,” he said.

The prime minister said the Iranian president accepted his invitation and said he would come to Pakistan soon and thank Pakistanis.

Moreover, he said, the Iranian president asked him to attend the funeral of the assassinated supreme leader of Iran, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, on July 3-4.

“I said, Pakistan’s delegation will be present there, so we can tell the world how much respect we have for him in our hearts, and that Pakistan and Iran will closely cooperate in the times to come and as a result of the ceasefire, economic prosperity will be witnessed in the region,” he said.

Concluding his address, he extended thanks to brotherly countries that contributed to peace efforts, particularly naming Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Turkiye and China.

The prime minister also mentioned that while Iran’s leadership participated in negotiations to end the conflict with “great dignity and seriousness”, the US leadership and President Donald Trump also played their part.

“It is said that nothing succeeds like success. Nations are unable to get this respect, this honour and status [that Pakistan has today] in centuries,” he said, adding that a message of national unity should be sent through the House. “Today’s great success demands that all of us unite.”

Pakistan leadership’s role lauded

Subsequently, the NA unanimously adopted a resolution that lauded the role of Pakistan’s leadership in the US-Iran agreement.

It was presented by Law Minister Azam Nazeer Tarar.

The draft of the resolution, seen by Dawn, stated: “Whereas the National Assembly of Pakistan notes with immense satisfaction and pride the landmark diplomatic breakthrough in the form of cessation of hostilities, and signing of an agreement on a framework for peace and stability between the United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran.

“Whereas the House recognises the negative fallout of the conflict for the regional peace and stability, as well as for the economic stability and energy security of the countries across the globe.”

Through the resolution, the NA recorded “its profound appreciation” for PM Shehbaz, DPM Dar, Interior Minister Naqvi, Chief of Defence Forces and Chief of Army Staff Field Marshal Asim Munir and the entire team engaged in the process of negotiations.

The House acknowledged that “their sincere and tireless efforts positioned Pakistan as a trusted neutral mediator on the global stage”.

The NA also congratulated and appreciated the leadership of Iran and the US on the “successful completion and signing of this historic peace deal”.

Switzerland said talks between the United States and Iran on a pact to end the Middle East conflict would not take place on Friday, as US Vice President JD Vance dropped plans to travel to Geneva.

The talks were set to take place under the ‘Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding’ signed between the US and Iran a day ago, after the two sides agreed on a 14-point accord on Monday. Under the deal, Washington and Tehran have agreed on a framework to end the war, reopen the Strait of Hormuz and negotiate on key issues within 60 days.

The talks, set for the mountaintop resort of Burgenstock, would not take place, Switzerland’s foreign ministry confirmed, but gave no details.

“The planned talks between the US, Iran, Qatar and Pakistan have been postponed,” the Swiss foreign ministry said in a message to AFP.

“Switzerland remains ready to facilitate these talks. The relevant preparatory work at Burgenstock is continuing,” it added, without providing a new date for the talks.

In Washington, a White House spokesperson said, “The logistics of these negotiations have never been simple or predictable. As of now, the vice president is not departing tonight.”

However, the official added, “We look forward to beginning technical talks as soon as possible.”

There was no immediate response from Iran, which had earlier said it was ready to begin technical talks after Thursday’s 14-point accord extended a tenuous ceasefire by at least 60 days.

Iran’s negotiators first needed to see signs of the US implementing the interim deal, and there was no confirmation its delegation would travel to Geneva, the semi-official Tasnim news agency said before Vance’s Thursday announcement.

Vance and the US delegation had been ready to depart as soon as plans were finalised.

On Thursday, the US vice president had hinted at plans being unconfirmed, saying: “We think these technical negotiations are going to start sometime this weekend. That’s still the plan, but that could change.”

US and Iran, along with mediators Pakistan and Qatar and other involved countries, were set to meet at “Buergenstock for initial negotiations about implementing the agreement”, according to the Swiss foreign ministry.

An official signing ceremony of the Islamabad MoU had also been in the works previously, with Geneva as the planned venue.

Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, who signed the Islamabad MoU as the mediator, had said earlier this week that the ceremony would be held in Geneva and be hosted by Pakistan.

However, the premier’s plans to travel to Geneva were cancelled on Thursday, with Deputy PM Ishaq Dar giving the reason that the signing had been “completed remotely”.

US officials had also said they would hold a formal signing ceremony in Switzerland, but Iran’s foreign ministry had cast doubt on the plan, calling it unnecessary after both countries’ presidents signed the pact.

The war, which began on February 28 with US and Israeli air attacks on Iran, has killed at least 7,000 people, sent energy prices soaring and shaken global markets.

Throughout the conflict, Pakistan has remained actively involved in mediating for peace. It brokered a ceasefire between the US and Iran on April 8 and also hosted historic direct talks between the two in Islamabad that month.

Israel continues Lebanon attacks

Israel, left out of the peace talks, has distanced itself from the US-Iran accord and kept up its attacks on Lebanon that it insists are targeted at Hezbollah, also raising questions about whether the agreement would hold.

Fresh Israeli strikes on Friday in Lebanon, where more than a million people have been displaced by the fighting, killed at least 15, the state news agency NNA said.

That raised doubt about how far Trump will go to force his wartime ally to halt an offensive he has now pledged to end.

The deal calls for “permanent termination” of the war in Lebanon, but Israel has said it has no intention of withdrawing, instead depicting an expanded occupation zone in a new map.

Trump has become openly critical of Israel’s operations in Lebanon, opening one of the biggest rifts between the two countries in decades.

On Friday, Iran’s chief negotiator Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf warned that Tehran would give a “decisive” response if the agreement was breached.

Prospects of further talks

In Washington, some of US President Donald Trump’s Republican allies in Congress questioned whether he had conceded too much in order to end the conflict, unpopular with most Americans in the run-up to mid-term elections in November.

Trump had sworn to end the war only with Iran’s “UNCONDITIONAL SURRENDER”.

But the memorandum signed with Iran instead provides relief from economic sanctions, unfreezes assets worth tens of billions of dollars and immediate US waivers for its exports of oil.

Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei said Trump had signed the deal “out of desperation” and signalled that approaching talks over Iran’s nuclear ambitions, among Trump’s stated reasons for starting the war, would not be easy.

“If the American side wants to be too demanding, we will not accept it,” he said in a message.

The deal gives negotiators 60 days to agree on the status of Iran’s nuclear programme, unless an extension is agreed, and set up a $300 billion reconstruction fund for Iran and other financial incentives.

Vance said Washington would also seek to limit Iran’s long-range missiles.

The growing cost of the war also drew the spotlight, as the US defence department told lawmakers it needed $80 billion to cover the costs and some unrelated bills, the Wall Street Journal said.

When the US and Israel launched the war nearly four months ago, Trump said he aimed to destroy Iran’s nuclear capabilities to ensure it could never develop such weapons.

Tehran has repeatedly denied that it aims to develop nuclear weapons, stating that its nuclear programme is only for civilian purposes.

Trump also sought to end Tehran’s ability to strike its neighbours and prevent it from backing anti-Israel groups in the region, and at times called for regime change in Iran.

None of those objectives had been met when Trump signed the agreement, in which Iran restated its decades-long assertion not to get or develop nuclear weapons.

It also agreed to the onsite “down blending” of its highly enriched uranium stockpile and inspections by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) as a Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) member, rejecting Trump’s wish to remove the material from the country.

US officials say the negotiations could still yield a strong agreement on Iran’s nuclear programme, aiming to better one dating from 2015 between Iran, the US and other countries that Trump tore up in his first term.

But critics say Iran is in a stronger position now, having withstood a superpower attack, demonstrated its control of the Strait of Hormuz and gained valuable waivers to financial sanctions.

Iran has said it will still exert control over Hormuz in partnership with Oman, its neighbour across the critical waterway, and intends to charge ships service fees that did not exist before the war, although not during the 60-day talks.

Oil prices dipped on Friday as prospects brightened for more supply after tankers began moving through the reopening Strait, which had carried nearly a fifth of global crude oil and liquefied natural gas supplies before the war.

---

Additional input from AFP

ISLAMABAD: The announcement of the US-Iran peace deal came after talks nearly collapsed several times, including on the final night.

Two sources and a diplomat briefed on the negotiations said securing the framework deal required Qatar to step in.

Disagreements sometimes came down to single words, such as a 45-minute debate in late May on whether the text should use “etc.” or “including”, the diplomat said, without describing which clause the debate referred to.

Achieving a final settlement on issues including sanctions relief and management of the strait as well as restrictions on Iran’s nuclear programme – all while Washington and Tehran distrust each other’s intentions – could prove even more challenging.

Trump’s shifting public statements repeatedly complicated the effort

“Washington and Tehran appear to have different interpretations of the same text,” said Alex Vatanka of the Middle East Institute.

“Iran will try to turn ambiguity into leverage, while the US will try to preserve pressure until nuclear concessions are secured. Mediation will therefore remain central, but difficult.”

Soon after the first round of talks in early April, the US blockade of Iranian ports in the Strait of Hormuz became one of the sharpest disputes, while at the end of May a call by President Donald Trump for Iran and Pakistan to join the Abraham Accords and normalise relations with Israel also disrupted negotiations, Pakistani sources said.

One of the sources said the arrival of a Qatari delegation in Tehran at the same time as a Pakistani team in early June was a key moment, as Doha was able to provide financial assurances to the Iranian leadership.

Doha had been reluctant to formally enter the process, the diplomat said, but that changed in mid-May after talks had stalled for about 10 days.

Qatar agreed to become more directly involved only if a ceasefire held and it was not attacked, the diplomat said. Its team then made five discreet trips to Tehran, often via Turkiye, to work through gaps in Pakistani drafts.

On May 19, after leaving Tehran with what they believed was a positive opening, the Qatari team flew to Washington, met senior US officials and made edits to the text while calling Iranian counterparts from inside the White House, the source said.

One of the Pakistani sources, who was involved in the negotiations, said the final night showed how perilous the process remained up to the end.

By around 11pm on Sunday in Pakistan, with officials gathered at the prime minister’s house and in a situation room, the talks were again falling apart after Israel attacked Lebanon, the source said.

“Things were very fluid,” the source said, adding that army chief Field Marshal Asim Munir passed messages between the two sides through the night. Hours later, the agreement came through.

An international source familiar with the negotiations said the Iranians were very careful about information security. “Messages get passed through many hands, and then come back days later,” they said.

The Pakistani source involved in the negotiations said things improved after a representative of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei came to Islamabad, allowing FM Munir and his team to “get more direct communications running.”

The international source said Pakistan grew frustrated with the differing communication styles. “With the Americans, you never really knew what their position was, and it could change. And with the Iranians, you often didn’t get a clear answer for days and days,” the source said.

Published in Dawn, June 19th, 2026

• Tel Aviv says will keep operating in south
• US sanctions ‘Hezbollah-aligned’ officials over allegedly obstructing peace

BEIRUT/WASHINGTON: Israeli strikes in south Lebanon killed three people on Thursday, according to Lebanese state media, hours after the United States and Iran signed an agreement to end the Middle East war.

“An enemy drone targeted a car” in the Kfar Tebnit area, killing two people, the official National News Agency (NNA) reported, raising an earlier toll of one dead.

In the neighbouring village of Zebdine, another drone killed one more person, NNA said.

Israel’s military, meanwhile, announced the death of one of its soldiers the night before in an incident in south Lebanon that also left seven others wounded. Since Iran and the US announced they had reached an agreement on Monday, there has been a sharp decrease in the level of violence in Lebanon.

South Lebanon operations

The Israeli military said on Thursday it will continue operating in southern Lebanon and “remove threats” beyond its so-called security zone, after the US and Iran signed an agreement to end the Middle East war, including in Lebanon.

The military published a map of its declared “security zone” — which runs some 10 kilometres (six miles) inside Lebanese territory. It said troops would continue to be deployed there “to remove threats and strengthen the defence of Israel’s northern residents”.

In a later statement, an Israeli military official said the army “will continue to remove threats to IDF soldiers and the civilians of the State of Israel that are identified beyond the security zone”.

The announcement came after the United States and Iran signed a memorandum of understanding on Wednesday meant to end the Middle East war, with fighting supposed to be halted on all fronts, including in Lebanon.

The military official on Thursday called on the Lebanese Armed Forces to operate in coordination with Israeli forces and urged Lebanese civilians to avoid entering the security zone.

US sanctions

The United States on Thursday sanctioned two prominent Lebanese officials as well as companies associated with a business magnate over allegations that they obstructed the country’s peace process and delayed the disarmament of Hezbollah.

The designated individuals include the leader of the Marada political movement, Sleiman Frangieh, and high-ranking Hezbollah political bureau member Mahmud Qamati. The disarmament of Hezbollah has been a key demand of the United States and Israel, and Lebanon’s government has ordered the powerful group to lay down its weapons.

Hezbollah, however, has rejected that decision and repeatedly demanded Lebanese authorities abandon direct talks with Israel being hosted in Washington.

The US government alleged that Frangieh had used his political alliance with Hezbollah to further his party’s parliamentary objectives. Frangieh is a Lebanese Christian politician, former minister, and leader of the Marada Movement, a political party in northern Lebanon.

Published in Dawn, June 19th, 2026

WASHINGTON: President Donald Trump has insisted that the deal he has reached with Iran is superior to the one that President Barack Obama sealed in 2015, while Trump’s critics say at this point he has gotten much less and given up much more to Tehran.

Here is how the two agreements compare:

What each deal is and isn’t

They are very different. The memorandum of understanding that Trump signed with Iran is not a final agreement but a one-and-a-half-page, 14-point framework negotiated on and off over a period of weeks.

It has launched a 60-day negotiation period to seek a full settlement of the nearly four-month war, with many hurdles yet to overcome on issues that include Iran’s nuclear programme, sanctions relief and the future of the Strait of Hormuz.

Obama’s pact was a finished, detailed document titled the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) that extended to more than 160 pages. It was narrowly focused on restricting Iran’s nuclear activities, with strict benchmarks. Trump, who condemned the Obama-era deal as horrible, scrapped it in 2018.

Trump’s approach has been bilateral, between the US and Iran. Obama brought China, France, Germany, Russia, Britain and the European Union into negotiations that lasted about two years.

N-programme

Both deals involve a written commitment by Iran never to seek a nuclear weapon. Trump, who declared the nuclear threat his main reason for going to war, has insisted, incorrectly, that Tehran had never done so before.

Obama’s deal placed tight limits on Iran’s efforts to produce weapons-grade uranium, aimed at extending the “breakout” time it would need to produce a bomb. The US government said Tehran had complied until Trump withdrew from the JCPOA.

Trump’s interim deal outlines only a general path toward curbing Iran’s nuclear activities, with no specific commitments from Tehran other than to discuss nuclear issues in the 60-day window.

It suggests Iran’s willingness to resolve a dispute over its near-bomb-grade uranium stockpile, but leaves that decision for a final deal.

Sanctions and frozen assets

Both deals involve sanctions relief and unfreezing of assets which Iran is now even more anxious to receive to boost its crippled economy – but in very different ways.

Obama eased some sanctions early on, but only after a comprehensive settlement was signed, and then phased in further relief based on verified steps by Iran.

Trump’s memorandum front-loads initial relief, including immediate U.S. waivers for Iran to export oil, while leaving a final package to be negotiated later.

It also opens the door to releasing billions of dollars in frozen funds.

Another provision calls for the U.S. and Middle East allies to set up a $300 billion fund for Iran for economic development, but is vague about the conditions and timetable.

Trump has berated Obama for years over the Democratic president’s return to Tehran of $1.7 billion in proceeds from arms sales frozen since 1981.

But Trump, who has made clear his disdain for any comparison between his deal and Obama’s, now stands to provide Iran with many times more funds.

Hormuz

The JCPOA dealt only with nuclear issues, a deliberate choice by the Obama administration, which calculated that bundling in other regional concerns would make a final deal impossible.

The MOU, however, is the diplomatic starting point for permanently ending the war. As a result, one of its main thrusts is an agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, a critical oil-shipping channel which Iran effectively closed. Iran has insisted it retain a management role over the strait that it lacked pre-war, and that could be a sticking point in negotiations.

Published in Dawn, June 19th, 2026