War returns to Iran with Israel, US strikes

The Energy Information Administration (EIA) has raised its oil price forecast for the third quarter of the year, expecting significant restrictions on oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz to continue throughout August, Al Jazeera reports.

The US agency lifted its 2026 average Brent crude price estimate from $81.91 to $86.81 per barrel.

The average price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil was estimated at $80.88 per barrel, up from the EIA’s forecast of $76.26 last month.

The EIA set its average barrel price forecast for next year at $69.39 for Brent oil and $65.39 for WTI.

Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar has condemned a Houthi attack on a commercial vessel in the Red Sea, which he said claimed the lives of three Pakistani nationals and injured one.

In a post on X, DPM Dar expressed deep concern at the incident and shared that “three Pakistani nationals have lost their lives and one has sustained injuries in the incident,” extending condolences to the families of the deceased.

Dar continued, “Pakistan strongly condemns the Houthi attack on a non-combatant commercial vessel,” adding that such attacks “endanger innocent lives, constitute a violation of international law, and pose a serious threat to freedom of navigation, maritime security, and the safety of commercial shipping in the Red Sea”.

He said that Pakistan remained in contact with relevant Saudi Authorities and the Yemeni government to determine further details and circumstances surrounding the incident.

“I have directed our Embassy in Riyadh to immediately coordinate with the concerned authorities, and to strongly pursue all necessary measures for the retrieval and repatriation of the mortal remains of the deceased Pakistani nationals and for the provision of all possible assistance to the injured Pakistani national.”

He added that Pakistan was following the situation closely.

Israeli forces carry out large explosions in southern Lebanon, Al Jazeera reports.

The tally of vessels tracked in the Strait of Hormuz fell to a one-week low of eight on Tuesday, shipping data showed, as owners avoided the key waterway amid continued hostilities in the Middle East, Reuters reports.

The United States and Yemen’s Iran-aligned Houthis reported separate attacks as prospects appeared to dim for an end to the Iran war, with Tehran saying the strait would stay closed unless Washington accepted its conditions.

Tuesday’s tally of eight vessels fell below a 10-day average of about 12, for the lowest daily count since August 5, Kpler data showed. Only one, a coal carrier, exited the strait, while the rest were still making their way through.

Four drones crash in Iraq’s Erbil province following Iranian strikes, Al Jazeera reports.

A senior advisor to the chief commander of the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC) says Iran’s production of ballistic missiles and drones exceeds the rate at which the Islamic Republic deploys the hardware, Press TV reports.

“We produce ballistic missiles at a rate exceeding the one at which they are deployed, and deliver them to the Islamic Republic’s Armed Forces. In the drone sector too, our production capacity is far greater than the rate at which the aircraft are deployed,” Brigadier General Mohammad-Reza Naqdi said.

Al Jazeera reports that Iran has fired missiles and drones at Kurdish positions in Erbil.

Mohammad Reza Naqdi, an adviser to Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps commander, has given an interview to PBS, saying that the United States military was “weaker than what we perceived”.

“Up until now, we are victorious. In the future, we will continue to be victorious,” he said.

“The longer this war lasts, the more experience we gain. We had never seen a real war to gain real experience to learn how to fight with America. In these five months, we have learned how. We have also seen how the American military is weaker than what we perceived,” he added.

US military operations in 2025 killed 153 civilians and wounded 243, a US official said, citing Pentagon assessments, according to Reuters.

This compares with a Pentagon assessment that two civilians were killed and two were injured by US military operations in 2024.

The report said that all the death and injury tolls against civilians recorded in 2025 were due to three US strikes in Yemen.

Speaking to reporters after a visit to Ohio on Tuesday, Trump said “Iran is going fine, going just absolutely fine.”

“We totally control the Strait of Hormuz … Nobody else, only us,” he said, according to Reuters.

“At some point, maybe they’ll do something and then they get blown away,” he said of Iran.

“But right now, we’re in a very good position. We have a country that has been the bully of the Middle East for 50 years, really 51 if you think about it … and they’re no longer the bully of the Middle East.”

Oil prices rose as doubts about a US-Iran peace deal and attacks on two ships fuelled concerns about Middle East supply disruptions, even as industry data showed US crude inventories expanded, Reuters reports.

Brent futures gained 72 cents, or 0.81 per cent, to $89.63 a barrel by 0053GMT, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude climbed 71 cents, or 0.85pc, to $83.91.

US President Donald Trump said the plane he flew on after he secretly took a military flight from Turkey last month was “at greater risk”, Reuters reports.

The switch involved the Republican president being moved between aircraft in a catering truck because of worries over reports of a potential Iranian assassination threat.

“I think actually the plane that I flew on was at greater risk,” Trump told reporters after The Washington Post broke the story.

“I think it was at greater risk because that would be the plane I think that they would be more likely to go for.”

A US helicopter fired missiles into the engine room of a Panama-flagged cargo ship that attempted to break the American blockade of Iran’s ports, the United States military said, according to AFP.

The US Navy MH-60 helicopter fired on and disabled the M/V Vela Nova “after the ship’s civilian crew ignored repeated warnings from American forces,” US Central Command said on X, adding that the vessel “is no longer transiting to Iran in violation of the US blockade”.

It was the third time the United States, in a months-long war against Iran, has forcibly halted a vessel since reinstating the ports blockade on July 14.

Some producers in the Middle East are likely to struggle to restore oil output to pre-conflict levels by the end of 2027, even if trade patterns return to normal by early next year, the US Energy Information Administration says according to Reuters.

The EIA estimated about 5.5 million barrels per day of Middle East oil output, or over 5 per cent of global consumption, was shut-in during July, the agency said in its short-term energy outlook (STEO) for August.

The EIA now expects flows through Hormuz to be severely constrained through August after renewed attacks on vessels in recent weeks, but it assumes that shipments will start to slowly increase in September.

Even if most Middle East oil output and global trade recover to pre-conflict levels by early 2027, about 600,000bpd of production from the region will be shut-in through the end of 2027, the EIA said in the August STEO.

Oil prices have edged up to a fresh one-week high as the market focuses more on supply disruptions in the Middle East and Russia than on signs of progress in talks between Oman and Iran over shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, Reuters reports.

Brent futures were up 95 cents, or 1.1 per cent, to $88.67 a barrel at 1:15pm EDT (10:15pm PKT), while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose $1.04, or 1.3pc, to $83.17.

US Energy Secretary Chris Wright has claimed that oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz are averaging nearly 9 million barrels per day, citing coordinated efforts by the US military and Gulf allies, in a statement on X.

Wright claimed an additional 5-7m barrels per day are leaving the region through upgraded pipelines and export facilities, putting total regional oil flows at about 15m barrels per day.

He said more than 20m barrels left the Gulf region on Sunday alone, exceeding the pre-conflict average.

Interior Minister Mohsin Naqvi has met with Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian while in Tehran, ISNA reports.

Naqvi described the relationship as “strong, long-standing and unbreakable” and conveyed Islamabad’s “serious determination and will” to pursue the comprehensive development of ties with Tehran.

The Iranian president noted that Pakistan-Iran relations would serve the two countries’ national interests as well as contribute to regional stability and security.

The United States will sponsor a new round of talks between Israel and Lebanon in early September in Rome, a State Department official has announced according to AFP.

“The political track will reconvene in Rome in early September, and conversations will continue in Beirut, Jerusalem, and Washington in the interim,” the official said on condition of anonymity. “We feel good about the trajectory.”

The US official gave an update on the last round of talks in Rome, saying that “the framework is being implemented, the first zones are live, and the working groups have aligned their language, maps, and procedures”.

At the next round of technical talks, he said, “Lebanon will present detailed roadmaps for securing new areas as implementation proceeds in the current zones.”

The spokesman for Iran’s Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC) says US aggression against the country exposed Washington’s strategic vulnerabilities, state-run Press TV reports.

Brigadier General Hossein Mohebbi said that Iran had changed a long-standing US approach in which Washington sought through its military campaigns to shift the costs of war beyond its own borders by involving other countries.

“However, the Ramadan War saw those costs return to the United States itself,” Mohebbi stated.

“This power was the result of the capabilities of the armed forces as they were able to return the costs of the war to the opposing side,” he added.

Mohebbi also noted that Iran’s military operations demonstrated its ability to affect global supply chains, particularly in the energy sector, with consequences extending beyond the region.

Mohsen Rezaei, secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, has told China’s ambassador that the Strait of Hormuz “will not be opened until the United States changes its behavior and accepts Iran’s conditions,” Al Jazeera reports citing Iran’s semi-official Tasnim news agency.

He said the US is “the source of insecurity” in the the Gulf, the Strait of Hormuz and the Sea of Oman, accusing it of imposing “an illegal war” that has put the entire region at risk. Rezaei said Washington “must end the war” and release Iran’s blocked funds, along with ending conflict across the region, including in Lebanon and Gaza.

He added that any Iran-Oman agreement on a route through the Strait of Hormuz would remain “separate” from the broader issue of the Strait’s closure.

Qatar’s foreign ministry spokesperson, commenting on the recently signed defence agreement between Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and Turkiye, has said that Qatar “welcomes any regional cooperation for the sake of security and stability and defence in the region”.

He said that Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and Turkiye were all countries that Qatar shared good relations with, saying, “We welcome this step and we support it.”

Yemen’s coastguard says alleged strikes by the Houthi rebels on a cargo vessel killed at least six people near the Bab al-Mandeb Strait off the country’s southern coast, AFP reports.

The coastguard from Yemen’s internationally recognised government said four sailors aboard the cargo vessel — identified as the “Tihamah” — were among the dead along with two members of the forces deployed during a rescue mission to evacuate the ship.

The initial salvo targeting the ship “caused a fire to break out aboard the vessel and inflicted extensive damage, in addition to causing deaths and injuries among its crew, including three Pakistani nationals and one Indonesian national killed,” the coastguard said in a statement.

A second strike targeted the vessel as rescue workers carried out a mission to evacuate the ship.

“The attack struck the site of the rescue operation and resulted in deaths and injuries among the forces participating in the response operation,” the coast guard added, saying 10 people were injured over the course of the strikes.

Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar has exchanged views on regional and international developments, including the “evolving situation concerning US-Iran engagements”, in a phone conversation with Indonesia’s Foreign Minister Sugiono, according to the Foreign Office (FO).

A statement by the FO said that Sugiono appreciated Pakistan’s role in promoting dialogue and facilitating efforts towards peace and stability.

The two ministers also discussed bilateral relations, reaffirming their commitment to further strengthening cooperation between the countries.