War returns to Iran with Israel, US strikes

Prolonged war in the Middle East and further disruptions to energy production, shipping routes or critical infrastructure pose the biggest risk to economies in the Middle East and Central Asia, the International Monetary Fund has said, Reuters reports.

Jihad Azour, the IMF’s director for the Middle East and Central Asia, told reporters the war was imposing a highly uneven economic shock to the broader region, with directly affected states under severe pressure.

“The outlook depends critically on how quickly energy production and trade normalise, and on countries ability to preserve macroeconomic stability,” Azour said at a news conference during the annual meetings of the IMF and World Bank in Bangkok.

Pre-war surpluses, alternative routes, demand adjustments and substantial inventory drawdowns had helped contain the impact of the energy shock caused by the US-Israeli-led attacks on Iran and Tehran’s subsequent closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

“These buffers bought time, but they are finite. Inventories are lower, spare capacity is tighter, and renewed disruption could generate much larger price adjustments,” he said.

Oil prices fell more than 1 per cent as investors weighed risks to supply from attacks on shipping through the Strait of Hormuz against US efforts to cut petroleum shipping costs by easing sanctions on vessels, reports Reuters.

Brent crude futures fell $1.64, or 1.6pc, to $104.42 a barrel by 0337 GMT, while US West Texas Intermediate crude futures were down 98 cents, or 1pc, to $94.11, reversing gains from the previous session.

WTI rose to a three-week high in the prior session after the Houthis attacked Saudi Aramco’s headquarters and Iran said it was deploying new tactics to target ships in the Strait of Hormuz and keep oil prices high.

The US military has developed new strike plans that include potentially using the so-called “mother of all bombs” to target Iranian energy infrastructure and nuclear sites should President Donald Trump give the order to resume combat operations either before or after the midterm elections, according to multiple US officials familiar with the matter, CNN reports.

Using the GBU-43/B Massive Ordnance Air Blast Bomb, or MOAB, the largest non-nuclear bomb in the US arsenal, for the first time in the conflict with Iran would mark a notable escalation, even though there are doubts over how effective it would be in accomplishing any of Trump’s stated strategic objectives or tipping the balance of the war, multiple sources familiar with internal military planning discussions about potentially deploying the weapon said.

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The Trump administration is considering easing sanctions on so-called shadow fleet vessels that have transported oil and petroleum products from countries including Russia, Iran and Venezuela, in an effort to reduce record-high global freight rates, a US official says, Reuters reports.

The new talks centre on the United States potentially allowing “legal oil” to flow on previously sanctioned vessels, the US official said. That means crude or petroleum products not sanctioned by Washington, rather than Russian and Iranian oil, which are under punitive measures.

The goal is to get more refined products and crude out of the Gulf, the official said.

US Energy Secretary Chris Wright said in a video to the World Petroleum Congress in Riyadh this week that the administration was talking about easing the sanctions on shadow fleet vessels in an effort to cut record freight rates that have cut into demand for US crude, according to Energy Aspects, a research group.

Bits of the talk were broadcast on social media, but Reuters was not able to obtain the full video or a transcript. The Department of Energy said it was not available.

A failure by the United States and Iran to agree within weeks on a UN-backed plan for moving fertiliser through the Strait of Hormuz could cause a food security crisis in parts of Asia and Africa, an official overseeing the proposed scheme says, Reuters reports.

“It’s absolutely crucial to get the deal in the next few weeks. Otherwise, we will miss the planting season,” he said in an interview in Bangkok, on the sidelines of the International Monetary Fund and World Bank annual meetings.

In response to questions from Reuters, a US State Department spokesman said the US military has assisted thousands of commercial vessels with transiting the strait.

“The United States will continue to take decisive action against Iran’s attempts to disrupt freedom of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz and hold the global economy hostage,” he said.

Iran’s army spokesperson Brigadier General Mohammad Akraminia says that the US has not been this strategically isolated since World War II, according to state-run IRNA.

He also alleged that “by waging an unlawful war against Iran, America aims to wipe out Iranian-Islamic civilisation”.

Iran’s Parliament speaker Bagher Ghalibaf says that Iran must “both fight and negotiate” in order to achieve its goals: “Whenever we achieve victory on the battlefield, we must consolidate the field of victory in the political sphere,” he says, according to state-run Fars news agency.

“This does not mean endless war and prolonged negotiation. We fight to exhaust the enemy so that it is forced to yield to our demands,” he added.

Yemen’s Houthis say they have targeted Riyadh’s international airport with a ballistic missile, hours after the Saudi-led coalition reported an interception of one fired towards the capital, AFP reports.

“The Yemeni Armed Forces… were able to target King Khalid International Airport in the Saudi enemy’s capital, Riyadh, with a ballistic missile, and the hit was accurate,” Houthi military spokesman Yahya Saree posted on X.

The Yemeni government forces say they have carried out 2,309 “targeting operations” against the Houthis, as part of their military campaign to recapture Houthi-held territory across Yemen, Al Jazeera reports.

The operations were conducted by the government forces using combat aircraft, drones, artillery and rocket launchers, and destroyed 460 Houthi military vehicles, according to claims made by the forces’ spokesperson, Majeed al-Nuzaili.

Al-Nuzaili said air strikes in Taiz continue to thwart the Houthis’ efforts to “compensate for losses and reorganise their forces”.

Iran’s Brigadier General Yadollah Javani, deputy for political affairs of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), says that US President Donald Trump is reluctant to accept defeat in the war is “anxiety” over the domestic repercussions of Iran’s victory, according to state-run IRNA.

Speaking at the Administrative Council of the northern province of Golestan, General Javani said that the war imposed on Iran was not labeled a world war, but global public opinion considers it one.

He explained that the Mideast war had the same nature and characteristics as World Wars I and II, which impacted the global order, the geometry of power, and the shifting power equation.

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi has discussed regional developments in a phone call with Lebanese President Joseph Aoun and stressed the need to halt Israeli attacks on Lebanon, state-run IRNA reports.

Araghchi highlighted Iran’s concern over Israeli attacks and aggression against Lebanon, while Aoun emphasised the need for diplomatic solutions to regional crises.

At least ten vessels have been attacked in or near the Strait of Hormuz since Sunday, a high since the war broke out, security data shows according to AFP.

Four vessels were struck on Tuesday and six on Sunday — the highest number of attacks in a single day since the start of the conflict — according to data from security firm Vanguard, the International Maritime Organisation (IMO) and the British maritime agency UKMTO.

Two seafarers have been reported missing and a container ship reportedly sank as a result of recent attacks, according to the maritime sources.

The Antigua and Barbuda-flagged Cape Dao sank close to the Strait of Hormuz after being struck by a projectile on September 23, data from UN shipping agency the International Maritime Organisation showed, according to Reuters.

The loss was reported less than 24 hours after the sinking of the Singapore flagged GFS Pride, which was struck by a projectile in a separate incident, maritime security sources said earlier.

The Yemeni government has spoken with Beijing about the Houthis’ alleged attempts to utilise Chinese-made technology for weapons, a Yemeni minister said, according to AFP.

“The Chinese are partners and we have discussed with them about, you know, the use of dual products,” Foreign Minister Afrah al-Zouba said in response to an AFP question about reports the group was trying to secure Chinese components to help manufacture weapons.

“They were very keen for any sort of information so they can investigate it. Their support to the Yemeni government is clear,” Zouba added.

The chairman of Saudi Arabia’s General Entertainment Authority said that the exhibition Six Kings Slam tennis tournament has been postponed, after Yemen’s Houthis carried out several deadly attacks on the kingdom, Reuters reports.

Novak Djokovic, Carlos Alcaraz and Alexander Zverev were all due to take part in the competition next week, alongside Taylor Fritz, Learner Tien and Alex de Minaur.

The event, originally scheduled for October 21-24 and to be streamed live by Netflix, will now take place from December 27-30.

Israeli military vehicles have advanced in Wadi Zibqin, in the Lebanese Tyre district, after they used a drone that launched a number of explosives ahead of the vehicles as cover, Al Jazeera reports, citing Lebanon’s National News Agency (NNA).

Separately, the NNA said that Israeli forces targeted the town of al-Mansouri with artillery shelling.

Yemen’s Houthi rebels say they targeted facilities belonging to Saudi oil giant Aramco as well as Riyadh airport, as they vow to conduct more attacks,
AFP reports.

“The Yemeni Armed Forces carried out a high-quality military operation targeting Aramco in Dhahran, in the Eastern Province, King Khalid International Airport, and the Aramco refinery in Riyadh. This was carried out using a large number of ballistic missiles, cruise missiles and drones,” military spokesperson Yahya Saree says.

“Operations toward Saudi depths will continue in the coming days, targeting Saudi enemy airports and oil facilities,” he adds.

US Central Command (Centcom) has responded to claims by Iran’s ambassador to the International Maritime Organisation (IMO) that US forces have used “threatening, abusive, and provocative language” against Iranian mariners and caused “serious stress and psychological pressure to civilian crews”.

“The highly successful US blockade against Iran has been in place for months and professionally communicated. The only country attacking civilian mariners transiting regional waters is Iran,” Centcom says in a statement posted on X.

The US military adds that despite attacks on commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, traffic continues to flow.

Oil prices have steadied after rising following an attack on the headquarters of Saudi Arabia’s state-owned oil company, and Iranian comments about new tactics deployed to target ships and keep oil prices high, Reuters reports.

Brent crude futures are up 13 cents at $105.56 a barrel as of 1325 GMT (6:25pm PKT). US West Texas Intermediate crude gained $1.25, or 1.33 per cent, to $95.39 for a more than two-week high.

The Saudi Arabian football league (SPL) has postponed three fixtures, including one involving Cristiano Ronaldo’s Al Nassr, following the dramatic escalation in the country’s war with the Houthis, AFP reports.

The matchweek nine fixtures have been pushed back in the calendar for “logistical considerations, taking into account the mandatory minimum rest period between matches”, according to a statement published on the SPL’s website.

The meeting between league leaders Al Hilal and Al Riyadh and the match between Al Ittihad and Al Shabab have been postponed to Dec 19, while the clash between Al Ahli and Ronaldo’s Al Nassr has been rescheduled for March 6, 2027.

The SPL added, however, that the other matchweek nine fixtures “will be played according to the previously announced schedule with no changes”.

Saudi Arabia plans to move ahead with a major investment conference in Riyadh despite Houthi attacks on the kingdom, offering on-site and virtual attendance as well as alternative air and land travel routes, diplomatic sources tell AFP.

The kingdom’s Future Investment Initiative (FII) Institute hosts an annual forum dubbed “Davos in the desert”, which usually draws foreign leaders and business titans, and this year it is scheduled to be held in Riyadh from Oct 26 to 29.

Diplomatic sources say that to prevent cancellation, organisers reached out to embassies and foreign companies to explore “hybrid” participation options, allowing officials and business executives to attend either in person or virtually.

They have even discussed arrangements for participants to fly by private jet to Dhahran airport in eastern Saudi Arabia before travelling by road to Riyadh.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu says he is not in favour of a preemptive strike against Iran before Israel’s October 27 election, but has warned Tehran and aligned groups against striking Israel.

“It is not convenient for us, it’s no good,” Netanyahu says in an interview on Israel’s Army Radio, when asked about the possibility of a preemptive strike and allegations by his political rivals that he was seeking a military confrontation ahead of the election.

“Even if Iran fires missiles at us, they will blame me,” Netanyahu adds, repeating his previous warnings to Iran, saying Israel will respond forcefully if attacked.

He has not elaborated on the possibility of a preemptive strike after the election, or on his recent discussions with the US about Iran.

A civilian has been injured by debris caused by the interception of a missile over Riyadh, Saudi Arabia’s Directorate of Civil Defence says.

In a statement on X, the agency says debris has caused “limited material damage” to a vehicle and a house in the Saudi capital.

A visiting senior United Nations official has reaffirmed the UN’s commitment to stability in Lebanon as the mandate of its peacekeeping force in the country is set to expire this year, AFP reports.

Under-Secretary-General for Peace Operations Jean-Pierre Lacroix has met officials as well as representatives of countries contributing to the UN Interim Force in Lebanon (Unifil), which counts some 7,500 personnel from nearly 50 countries.

“I thanked them for their critical support to Unifil and reiterated the UN’s strong commitment to supporting peace and stability in Lebanon,” Lacroix says.