IT is a country that has flirted with change but clung to the familiar. On Monday night, Canada delivered a verdict that seemed less an embrace of Mark Carney and more a desperate clinging to the idea that someone — anyone — could out-think Donald Trump.

Carney, the rookie Liberal leader once better known for polishing interest rate forecasts than kissing babies, managed the improbable: he steered the battered Liberal Party to a fourth consecutive mandate. If not quite a coronation, it was nonetheless a remarkable reversal of fortune in a political landscape that had seemed destined, mere months ago, to turn Tory blue.

Victory, however, came with an asterisk. The Liberals are perched at 168 seats — enough to govern, but short of the 172 needed for a majority. Carney will lead a minority government, where survival will depend on managing a fractured parliament.

The election, a compressed five-week sprint, had been pitched as an epic duel between Carney’s supposed steadiness and Pierre Poilievre’s populist fervour. In the end, neither man’s vision truly captured Canadian hearts. Instead, it was Donald Trump, Canada’s accidental kingmaker, who overshadowed all.

With a fractured parliament at home and a belligerent Trump abroad, new PM now faces a daunting road ahead

Trump’s incendiary musings about annexation, his tariffs on Canadian goods, and his open contempt for Canadian sovereignty spooked voters more effectively than any Liberal attack ad could. A contest that would have been about housing affordability and carbon taxes turned into a referendum on national survival.

In an eerie echo of old fears, Carney sounded the alarm across the land: America is trying to break us so they can own us.

The Liberals’ campaign, with Carney at the helm, became less about Trudeau’s legacy and more about existential dread. The message: steady hands were needed to navigate the storm.

It worked — just enough to secure another mandate.

It is tempting to paint Carney as a man forged by the moment. A political outsider, coaxed into leadership by a desperate party. The narrative writes itself, and Carney leaned into it: “My government will work for and with everyone,” he declared early Tuesday morning, promising to heal divisions and govern for all Canadians.

But the shiny technocratic armour came with dents. Throughout the campaign, Carney struggled to reconcile his carefully crafted image of competence with the blood sport of electoral politics. And while voters may have ultimately chosen his brand of managerial steadiness over Poilievre’s ideological fury, it was no sweeping endorsement. The Liberals squeaked past, not soared.

For a man whose career had been built in the vaulted halls of global finance, the House of Commons will feel claustrophobic.

Meanwhile, Pierre Poilievre, who had appeared just months ago to be on the verge of a major breakthrough, faced a significant setback in his own backyard.

Losing ground to Liberal Bruce Fanjoy in Carleton, Poilievre delivered a concession speech with the tone of a politician determined to regroup and re-engage. The Conservatives may have lost the election, but they made tangible gains, particularly in Ontario, where they clawed back blue-collar ridings and suburban belts.

The irony? Poilievre was punished not for fighting Trump, but for not knowing how. His early campaign was a confused mess — one part MAGA cosplay, one part grievance-mongering — while Trump steamrolled his way into the centre of the Canadian electoral conversation.

By the time Poilievre tried to pivot, it was too late.

And then there was Jagmeet Singh — the man who lost not just his party’s relevance but his own seat.

The NDP’s collapse, especially in BC and Atlantic Canada, turned the 2025 election into a two-party race. Singh, ever the optimist, defended his legacy even as he walked off the stage. But there was no mistaking the NDP’s irrelevance; Canada’s progressive heartland shifted, not left or right, but inward — voting for survival in an age of trade wars and nationalist sabre-rattling.

Singh’s resignation was not a shock. It was an inevitability.

Carney now inherits a challenging mandate. His task: to stare down a belligerent US president while holding together a minority parliament that may not share his urgency or priorities.

Domestically, he has pledged to end interprovincial trade barriers, build infrastructure, and craft a unified economic policy. Lofty promises. Delivering them will require dealing with a parliament where support is tenuous, and enemies lie in wait.

Internationally, he must sit across from Donald Trump and navigate a negotiation that often feels more like a hostage situation.

Carney’s much-vaunted technocratic competence may keep the wolves at bay for now. But competence alone rarely stirs lasting loyalty. And as history shows, minority governments in Canada often falter — whether through ambition or inertia.

The Liberals have bought themselves time. How long it lasts, and at what cost, is still to be seen.

In an election shaped by uncertainty and hard choices, Canadians have once again opted for caution over upheaval.

The coming months will test whether this can deliver the stability Canadians hope for.

Published in Dawn, April 30th, 2025

Header image: Mark Carney reacts as he celebrates with his supporters during an event at the Liberal Party election headquarters in Ottawa.—Reuters