WITH just seven National Assembly seats and a population of around 6.2 million, of whom about 3.4 million are registered voters, the Hazara Division has never really been a major factor in the formation of governments at the federal level.

It is, nevertheless, an important front in the psychological warfare waged by political parties ahead of every general election.

This time, too, the Hazara Divi­sion has acquired a unique significance because the PML-N’s supreme leader, Nawaz Sharif, has chosen one of its constituencies — NA-15 (Mansehra–II) — as the launching pad for his bid to become prime minister of the country for a record fourth time.

Whether Mr Sharif’s ambitions will be realised, only time will tell — but the winds of favour do seem to be blowing in his direction. The legal hurdles on his path to PM House have almost completely been removed, courtesy of a much more welcoming state as compared to 2018.

The apex court ended his lifetime disqualification with a 6-1 vote on Jan 8, clearing his path for a bid at re-election. Mr Sharif’s nomination papers had been challenged by the Pakistan Tehreek-i-Insaf through Azam Khan Swati, but Mr Swati’s efforts bore no fruit, and Mr Sharif’s candidature has been upheld by all legal forums where it was challenged.

That this area was traditionally considered an ‘N’ stronghold may explain why Nawaz has chosen to contest from NA-15, but the region famously witnessed a PTI wave in 2018, when the party bagged four NA seats

Constituency make-up

The Hazara region — which comprises Mansehra, Abbottabad, Haripur, Battagram, Torghar, Kolai-Palas, Upper Kohistan and Lower Kohistan — was once considered a stronghold of the PML-N. It fell to the PTI in the 2018 general elections.

Of its total seven NA seats, three were won by the PTI directly, while a successful independent candidate also joined the party later. The PML-N secured two seats, while the JUI-F won a single seat under the banner of the Muttahida Majlis-i-Amal (MMA).

Compared to its somewhat limited utility on the federal level, the region plays a much more important role in the formation of the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa provincial assembly with its 18 provincial assembly seats spread over eight districts.

KP had returned to the PTI in the 2018 general elections, and its lawmakers from Hazara had played a pivotal role during its term in power. Hazara’s Mushtaq Ahmad Ghani was initially tipped to become the PTI’s chief minister in KP, but the idea was later dropped because of internal rifts within the party. He was later picked as speaker of the provincial assembly.

The numerical nomenclature of both national and provincial assembly seats for the Hazara Division has completely changed for the 2024 general elections after the recent delimitations.

Kohistan (NA-12)

In the 2018 general elections, Kohistan district’s Afreen Khan had won in NA-11 (now NA-12), securing 16,480 votes on an MMA (JUI-F) ticket. Dost Mohammad Shakar, an independent, had been the runner-up with 14,536 votes, while Mehboobullah Jan of the PPP had obtained 13,188.

For this year’s general elections, this constituency, which stretches over Upper Kohistan, Lower Kohistan and Kolai-Palas, has almost all mainstream political parties in the running.

Malik Salahuddin is contesting on a JUI-F ticket, and his chances seem good considering the constituency has mostly been won by independents backed by regional alliances or religious parties in the past. Other candidates include Mehboobullah Jan from the PPP, Kareemdad of Pattan Kiyal Ittehad, and Malik Mohammad Idrees of Jalkot Qaumi Ittehad.

Battagram (NA-13)

The Battagram district entirely covers the NA-13 constituency, and was once considered to be the stronghold of the PML-N. This seat fell to the PTI in the 2018 general elections, when its leader Prince Mohammad Nawaz Khan captured it with 35,120 votes.

Qari Mohammad Yusuf of the JUI-F stood runner-up with 24,307 votes, while Sardar Malik Jan of the PPP secured 12,505 votes. The PTI and JUI-F have fielded the same candidates for the Feb 8 contest. Sardar Moin of the PML-N, Mufti Aman of Tehreek-i-Inqalab, Atta Mohammad Deshani of Rah-i-Haq Party and Saeed Ahmad Malkal of the Jamaat-i-Islami will also be contesting the seat.

Mansehra (NA-14)

Mansehra’s NA-14 had slipped from PML-N grasp in the 2018 general elections, when an independent, Salah Mohammad Khan, defeated PML-N hopeful Sardar Shahjehan Yusuf, son of former federal minister Sardar Mohammad Yusuf. It was a close fight: Salah, who later joined the PTI, secured 108,950 votes, while Sardar Shahjehan Yusuf secured 107,114 votes. Mohammad Baseer Khan of the JUI-F managed 19,814 votes in comparison.

Following the May 9 incidents, Salah Mohammad quit the PTI and joined the newly formed PTI-Parliamentarians as its central president. He is not running from this constituency in the February elections, but Sardar Mohammad Yusuf will be contesting on a PML-N ticket.

The PTI has meanwhile fielded Mohammad Saleem Imran Swati, who is a stranger to locals. The PPP’s provincial general secretary in KP, Shujah Salim Khan, who is backed by the JUI-F, is also in the running.

Mansehra-II-cum Torghar (NA-15)

The PML-N had won the 2018 general elections from NA-15 Mansehra-II-cum Torghar. Mohammad Sajjad, elder brother of Mohammad Safdar — Nawaz Sharif’s son-in-law — had emerged as the winner with 76,220 votes. Zargul Khan, then an independent candidate, secured 59,918 votes, while Mufti Kifayatullah of the JUI-F had secured 45,798 votes.

This time, Mr Sharif has replaced Mr Sajjad with himself and will be running from this constituency. Mr Kifayatullah is also in the running on a JUI-F ticket, while Zargul Khan will be contesting this time on a PPP ticket.

Former opposition leader in the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa assembly, Shahzada Gustasab Khan, has been fielded by the PTI after Senator Azam Khan Swati’s nomination papers were rejected by the returning officer.

Abbottabad (NA-16 and NA-17)

PML-N leader Murtaza Javed Abbasi won the 2018 general elections from Abbottabad’s NA-16 with 96,643 votes. The PTI’s Ali Asghar Khan was next in place with 82,073 votes. Sardar Mohammad Yaqoob, a PTI dissident, had contested as an independent candidate to challenge the party’s decision to award the ticket to Mr Asghar. He got 39,325 votes.

In this year’s elections, Mr Abbasi is again in the running on a PML-N ticket, but is facing a critical challenge from PML-N dissident and former chief minister and governor of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Sardar Mehtab Ahmad Khan. The PTI’s Ali Asghar Khan, who was runner-up in 2018, is one of the strongest candidates from this constituency.

NA-17 Abbottabad-II fell to PTI in the 2018 general elections after its leader, Ali Khan Jadoon, secured 85,763 votes. Mahabat Khan of the PML-N had received 55,102 votes, while Sardar Ali Tanoli, an independent, had secured 12,689 votes. Mahabat Awan, Ali Khan Jadoon, Saleem Shah of the PPP, and Shaukat Tanoli, an independent who was ex-district naib nazim of Abbottabad, are running from here for the Feb 8 election.

Haripur (NA-18)

Ayub Khan’s grandson, Omar Ayub Khan, followed his family’s legacy and won Haripur’s only NA seat, NA-18 Haripur, on a PTI ticket in the 2018 general elections. He had secured 173,125 votes, while his close rival, Babar Nawaz Khan of the PML-N, secured 133,158 votes.

This time, too, both the winner and runner-up of the previous elections are running on behalf of the same parties. Raja Amir, who was elected from the constituency in 2013, has put his weight behind the PML-N this time, and it is believed this may give the party an edge in the contest.

Ali Zawar Naqvi of the PPP, Ghazan Iqbal Tareen of the JI and Mohammad Ayub of JUI-F are also in the running.

Published in Dawn, January 19th, 2024