In the opening days of COP26 in Glasgow, headlines focused on a slew of long-term commitments, with more than 100 countries pledging both to cut methane emissions by 30 per cent and to end deforestation by 2030.
But just as important for the world’s long-term climate trajectory are the development decisions made this decade by countries which are not yet major emitters. While they are the least responsible for climate change, developing countries must chart a new course, away from the carbon-intensive development of countries like the US and China, if the goals of the Paris Agreement are to stay in sight.
Unlike India and Nepal, Pakistan has not announced a net-zero year. Pakistan’s Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) is ambitious in the short term, committing to cut 50pc of projected emissions and achieve 60pc renewable energy by 2030. However, many questions remain about its feasibility and implementation.
In Glasgow, The Third Pole sat down with Malik Amin Aslam, Adviser to the Prime Minister on Climate Change, to hear his views on net-zero targets and the road ahead for Pakistan as it seeks to deliver on its climate commitments.
The Third Pole: Given the message it could send to the investment community, and the potential for raising investment for green growth, why has Pakistan decided not to declare a net-zero year for this COP?
Malik Amin Aslam: In Pakistan, we don’t believe in the net-zero concept at the moment. We believe in the concept of a decisive decade in the next 10 years. If the world does not change in the next 10 years, then we’ll be too late for any net-zeros in 2050, 2060 or 2070. I believe that net-zero if it translates into concrete action in the next decade is good, but most of these announcements are just announcements.
Pakistan has done something different, a very clear directional shift [is] happening in the next 10 years – going 60pc zero carbon [in energy production] by 2030; clean transport, going 30pc electric by 2030; and trusting and investing in nature. We have the Ten Billion Tree Tsunami, which is already ongoing; 15 new national parks being declared in the last year alone; Recharge Pakistan, using floodwaters for restoring our wetlands and managing and adapting to climate change. We want to reinvigorate the momentum for these initiatives in the coming decade. The last decade has been a decade of disappointment on climate change, and the next decade has to be the decade of action. If that doesn’t happen, net-zero doesn’t matter.
Q: Pakistan’s updated NDC is ambitious, with a total target of a 50pc emissions reduction by 2030 (part of that being conditional on international financing), compared to projected emissions between 2015 and 2030. What time frame are you looking at to peak emissions?
MAA: We’ve done our arithmetic on the emissions and believe that with the sequestration projects that we’re doing, Pakistan could well be on its way to levelling all its emissions. Our NDC shows that we’ve gone 9pc below our business-as-usual trajectory in 2020, and we can go 50pc below by 2030. It’s a very clear directional target, but we have made it conditional on getting US $100 billion of finance which can allow us to make a clean and just energy transition.
We’re not talking about climate change in a silo, we’re shifting the direction of our mainstream development towards being climate-friendly. That is what really needs to happen all across the world. Pakistan is still responsible for less than 1pc of global emissions – even if we closed down everything in Pakistan, it wouldn’t matter for the world. What does matter is that a country like Pakistan is paving the way towards climate-friendly development, based on nature and based on clean energy.
Q: A note in the updated NDC suggests Pakistan will still increase the role of domestic coal in the energy mix to 15pc by 2030. What is the plan in terms of phasing out local coal?
MAA: The local coal aspect is still there, but we have committed to no new imported coal projects. We have followed this up with clear action by shelving two projects of 2,400MW, which were already signed off. We have shifted to 3,700MW of hydropower. On local coal, we’re looking for coal gasification and coal liquefaction technologies which are much less polluting and more efficient, but this requires access to the best available technology and climate finance.
Q: We’ve noted that coal gasification can be more polluting than traditional coal.
MAA: We are looking for the best available technology which would be less polluting. We’ve worked on some options which have been used in South Africa, but we’re still searching for that best available technology. That’s what these forums should be able to provide.
Q: Many of the actions outlined in the NDC are long-term projects, such as the Ten Billion Tree Tsunami programme. For that mitigation impact to be delivered, it depends on political continuity. As we’ve seen from the US example, a change of administration can have immense impacts on climate pledges. What happens to Pakistan’s commitments if there is a change of government?
MAA: We’re trying to link up our financing streams with clear performance indicators on nature. We have floated our first green bond which is US $500 million for renewable energy.
We’ve done the national capital evaluation for our blue bonds, with mangroves, and we’re also looking at nature performance bonds which link up debt relaxation or reduction with nature performance. If that happens, no matter who comes into power, those agreements will be locked in with nature performance and climate action. I think that’s the solution to this problem of keeping on track.
Q: How are you measuring the current and future carbon sequestration impact of the Ten Billion Tree Tsunami programme?
MAA: If we can do TBTTP by 2040 and keep them (the trees) standing, we would be sequestering the same amount of carbon as we’re emitting today, about 500 million tonnes. That’s based on IPCC estimations which have been done by the Climate Change Impact Strategy Centre, and a study that we have sent in to the UNFCCC. We’ve already [reached] 1.5 billion [trees]. We hope to reach 3.2 billion by 2023, and then in the next five years, by 2028, we want to reach 10 billion trees.
Q: Pakistan has a high deforestation rate. What is the government doing to preserve the existing forests, given their value for biodiversity?
MAA: This TBTTP is not about planting new forests. Seventy per cent of it is about protecting existing natural forests, which is called assisted natural regeneration.
Q: How will these areas be protected in practice?
MAA: A problem in Pakistan has been a lot of protected areas which were just paper parks. We have started a protected area initiative, and are going to be training a new national park service, with 5,000 green jobs.
We’ve secured 120 billion in funding for that through the World Bank. This is going to be community-based, with young people and women included, who will be our new park rangers for these expanded national parks. They’ll be integrating into community-managed national park management plans. We will be starting this next month, and by the middle of next year we hope to target filling these jobs.
Q: The updated NDC pledges that by 2030, 60pc of energy produced in Pakistan will be from renewable sources. But a lot of this would hinge upon investment in hydropower, which can have major negative impacts on local communities through displacement, on ecosystems and on water availability. What do you have in place to mitigate those issues, and why is the focus still on large hydropower rather than solar and wind?
MAA: Large hydropower has huge potential in Pakistan. We have untapped potential of more than 50,000MW of power and water storage for agriculture. That’s why we are focusing on the 10 big dams in the next 10 years. Environmental issues will be mitigated by environmental impact studies to make sure communities get properly compensated if they are displaced, and any natural area that gets inundated is recreated. We are cognisant of that and we’ve addressed that. But this 60pc also includes wind, solar and nuclear energy as zero-carbon options for Pakistan.
Of the 60pc, 45pc is hydro, small and large. Wind and solar have got limitations. You need a lot of land for solar. Similarly for wind you’ve got environmental issues. All of these come with their own tags, but at the end of the day they deliver zero-carbon emissions.
Q: As things like off-grid solar become hopefully cheaper and more effective, do you see Pakistan revising that balance between hydro, wind and solar?
MAA: If it becomes practically possible, we would definitely love to do that. There are limitations on all three of them and we have to weigh up the options. At the end of the day what we are targeting is the zero-carbon energy which comes out of all three of them.
Q: What are your impressions of COP26 so far, following the World Leaders Summit?
MAA: The leaders summit to me was a disappointment. Of the big five, two didn’t turn up, and the third came up with a joke of a 2070 announcement. The remaining two have been trying, but I don’t think they’ve reached the mark.
The big disappointment is US $100 billion [in climate financing for developing countries] which has been pushed now to 2023. It’s a decade-old promise – if they cannot deliver that, it’s meaningless to expect delivering a very ambitious climate agenda. We’re still hoping for the best, not for Pakistan but for the world.
Climate finance is central to all of it, because every transition requires finance. If finance cannot be directed towards this pathway, it just shows the big 20 polluters are not serious. Throwing coins in the Trevi Fountain is not going to wish climate change away.
This interview has been edited for clarity and length.
This article was originally published by The Third Pole and has been reproduced with permission.