CAMBRIDGE: When the last Taliban fighter retreats into the mountains of Afghanistan and a new government is established in Kabul, the United States and its supporters in the war on terrorism will undoubtedly claim victory. But in the long term, Osama bin Laden is likely to be only a footnote in the history of conflicts between East and West.

The more profound challenge facing the US is the broad-based Islamization of societies — ordinary Muslims searching for the path toward religious purity. Islamization of these societies has spurred opposition to their respective governments, and because the US supports these governments, it has indirectly fostered anti-American sentiment.

Islamization is in full bloom in Egypt, where it began about 30 years ago, and in other countries and regions, such as Pakistan and the Gaza Strip. In other states, the rise in Islamist sentiment remains in an early stage, but will undoubtedly grow.

In Turkey, the grass-roots Islamic movement is groping for a place in the background of the overpowering Kemalist state, which represses most forms of public religious expression.

Millions of mainstream Muslim activists, embarrassed that Osama bin Laden unleashed his war in the name of Islam, could nonetheless use this conflict to their advantage. With governments in countries such as Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and Pakistan under more pressure to crack down on Islamic militancy, moderate Islamists can be expected to seize upon this political opening.

For years, a fundamental dynamic has operated between nation- states in the Islamic world and their citizens: When the state becomes more repressive in response to religious extremism, moderate activists gain popularity by offering themselves as a political alternative. Generally, the rebellious discourse of the militant fringe resonates in the mainstream and revives the lists of grievances among society as a whole.

The now-famous question of Sept 11 — Why do they hate us? — was always misplaced. The more pressing issue, from Casablanca to Karachi, is: Why do so many Muslims, particularly middle- class professionals, see the attacks as an understandable response to the frustration the Islamic world feels about US behaviour?

Widespread demonstrations in many Islamic countries were misinterpreted as a seal of approval for violence. Rather, Osama’s attack was a wake-up call that brought out the crowds.

Osama’s primary grievance is US support for repressive governments, such as Egypt and Saudi Arabia. He shares the belief with many mainstream Islamic activists that, if not for this US support, Muslims would be more in control of their destinies.

It is these millions of Muslims seeking self-determination and peaceful accommodation with the West — not Osama bin Laden — who will decide whether the United States will ultimately be successful in the war on terrorism. —Dawn/The Christian Science Monitor News Service.