As could be expected, it is the cellular variety that has been in the vanguard of this telecommunication revolution which has cut across the rural-urban divide. Of the base of 110 million subscribers in an official population of 173.54 million, as many as 97.3 million happen to be using cellular phones. It is as heavily lopsided a growth as that.
According to the latest figures released by the Pakistan Telecommunication Authority (PTA), national tele-density stands at 63.5 per cent - 59.4 cellular, 2.1 fixed lines and 1.6 per cent Wireless Local Loop (WLL) subscribers.

Though the national telecom sector has been actively promoted by the government since the turn of the century, current figures indicate a recent burst beyond the expectations of those who had set the ball rolling. Just four years ago, addressing an International Telecommunication Union (ITU) conference in the Turkish city of Antalya, the then federal minister for information technology Awais Leghari had hoped that Pakistan would touch 35 per cent tele-density by the end of 2010.

The current PTA figures relate to April this year, which means the country has overshot the target by almost 82 per cent and has done so with just a shade under three quarters still to go.

The exhilarating pace at which the sector has grown can be seen through a quick comparison with corresponding figures for some of the previous years. Fifteen years ago - 1996-97 - total tele-density was a meagre 2.14 per cent, with landlines accounting for 2.04 and cellular connections for 0.1 per cent.

In the year 2000, the overall tally went up to 3.08; 2.56 per cent landlines and 0.52 per cent cellular. By 2005, the overall figures had already gone up by more than 200 per cent, with national tele-density recorded at 10.37 per cent of the population. It was on the basis of these amazing numbers that the minister concerned had set the next five-year tele-density target at 35 per cent.

Apart from the pace, one can also see in these figures the texture of growth registered by the sector. By the end of 2002-03 fiscal, landlines outnumbered cellular connections by almost two to one - 1.62 cellular connections against 3.01 per cent landlines. Just a year later, cellular connections edged past their landline counterparts for the first time in the country - 2.97 landlines versus 3.31 per cent cellular tele-density.

Since then the gap has only widened and today there is no ground for comparison between the two. The third entity, the Wireless Local Loop, first made its entry in March 2005, contributing 0.16 per cent to the national tele-density data. This has now grown up to 1.6.

The rise of the cellular variety has been in line with global trends. According to the World Telecommunication Development Report 2010, which was released a couple of months ago, mobile technology is the most widely spread entity. There is data available to suggest that by the end of 2008 almost three-quarters of the world's rural inhabitants were covered by a mobile cellular signal, up from 40 per cent in 2003.

The lowest coverage is in Africa, but even there the relevant figures stands at over 50 per cent, indicating a significant improvement over 2003 when coverage stood at only 20 per cent. Complete mobile coverage of all rural areas worldwide by 2015 is a rough target set out by the International Telecommunication Union and Pakistan seems to be ahead of the target in that regard as well.

On an year-on-year basis, the number of cellular subscribers has grown six per cent this year. However, the big question today facing the stakeholders relates to the potential of the local market to continue to prosper at the same pace.

The general mood is upbeat among market-watchers who argue that so well-entrenched is the mobile phone in today's lifestyle and business ethics that even the federal budget was largely a non-event for the sector. Implementation of VAT or increase in GST are factors that are unlikely to have much of an impact on the demand side, they argue, insisting that the growth is expected to continue its upward journey.

There are others, however, who expect the pace of growth to slow down in the days ahead because, according to them, market saturation is a factor that is fast becoming ominous from an investor's point of view.

“The cellular market has been witnessing its saturation point in the country and despite all out efforts, the operators will not be able to add a significant number of users on their network,” said one analyst while pointing to the “war of advertisements” that major companies are fighting through media in order to broaden their subscriber base. The cost of running these media wars, he said, would itself be a factor in causing a serious dent in the coffers of telecommunication companies.

Even if the latter scenario does prevail in the days to come, there is still a silver lining for the telecom sector; the sphere of broadband connectivity. Even the ITU report is certain in its opinion that “the next decade will be the decade of the broadband.” It is running a full-scale 'build-on-broadband' campaign designed to increase awareness of the “vital role broadband will play in the 21st century in every country in the world”.

Pakistan is surely well-placed to jump on to the bandwagon.