LAHORE, Feb 16: The Mangla Dam on Sunday hit the dead level — at least three weeks ahead of its planned date — and Tarbela dam may get empty by tomorrow (Tuesday) sending the irrigation plans of the country in tailspin.
The irrigation supplies would be depending on the run-of-river supplies during the next one-and-a-half month — remaining period of the Rabi season — which has been maintaining derisory trend for the last many weeks.
On Sunday, the Tarbela level stood at 1375.00 feet; only six feet above the dead level of 1369. The drop in level is by almost six feet a day, which means that dam would hit the level by Monday. Even if there is some increase in the inflow due to rains in Northern Areas, it would be emptied on Tuesday.
The Mangla Dam hit the dead level on March 21 in year 2002 and on March 27 in year 2001. The Indus River System Authority (Irsa) had planned to take the dam water up to first week of March this year. But the its hitting the dead level three weeks earlier has left the wheat crop — at its most crucial maturity stage — totally at the mercy of river supplies, which had been less than meagre during the last few weeks.
The Tarbela Dam has also ditched the water planners by at least two weeks. It hit the dead level on March 6 last year. In 2001, it hit on March 16 and March 26 in year 2000. Its hitting the dead level by 20 days earlier may hit the wheat crop beyond redemption if there are no heavy rains during the next few days. It would not only be wheat crop that would be on risk, but the sever water shortage may also hit cotton crop. There would be no water for early Kharif sowing.
About the mismanagement of water this year, an official of the Irsa maintained that the misfortune was compounded by lack of any central planning by the body. “The absence of planning is evident from the steep decrease in dam level in spite of its repeated claims that water in both dams would last up to March 31,” he said.
“It has worked more of a body meant for settling provincial scores rather than one leading the provinces. For example, it always knew that Mangla water cannot be delivered below Rasul barrage without risking transmission losses. But it insisted on the same and result is for every body to see.
“It is not only lack of seasonal planning which is lacking in the country, but the whole water strategy, based on the Water Accord, has crumbled down,” says an official of the Ministry of Water and Power. The accord was meant to develop new storages, sharing prosperity and reducing losses. The executioners of the accord have failed on all three counts.
“There is no new storage in sight, at least in near future. Without new dam, there cannot be any prosperity to be shared, and transmission losses have gone up to the extent of disturbing the whole planning in the country. In these circumstances, one really does not know what can be done to retrieve the situation,” the Irsa official said.
The Mangla Dam’s hitting the dead level so early also exposes the fallacy of expectations attached to the raised Mangla dam.
“If the lower level lake cannot last up to its planned time, where would water come from for the additional capacity. The dam was not filled, with its present capacity, for 10 out of its 35 years’ life. Pinning hope for the filling of increased capacity lake would only bring more grief,” the official insisted.