SAO PAULO, Feb 15: The US Department of Agriculture’s upwards revision of its Brazilian soyabean crop forecast was exaggerated, local analysts and traders said.
In a monthly report, the USDA on Tuesday put the crop at a record 51 million tons in 2002/03 (Oct/Sept), up from 49 million tons in January and an initial forecast of 47 million tons.
The revision is very premature because the crop in Rio Grande do Sul is still flowering and in the pod-filling stage, as is part of the crop in Parana state, said Seneri Paludo, soya analyst at Parana-based Agencia Rural, estimating the crop at 48 to 50 million tons.
Parana and Rio Grande do Sul are respectively Brazil’s No.2 and No.3 soya producing states.
A record crop in every state is needed in order to produce more (than 50 million tons), said Paludo, adding that this would be difficult because of climatic problems, such as drought, which delayed planting in parts of the centre-west of the country in October. The centre-west includes Brazil’s No.1 soya state Mato Grosso.
Celeres/MPrado analyst Anderson Galvao agreed, saying it was practically impossible to produce 51 million tons. He put the crop at between 48.5 and 50 million tons. However some analysts consider 51 million tons feasible, but unlikely.
It was a rash change (by USDA). No-one is projecting 51 million tons, but it is a possibility, said Renato Sayeg of broker Tetras Corretora.
Antonio Sartori from Rio Grande do Sul-based broker Brasoja also believed that 51 million tons was possible in view of yields being reported.
If the weather remains favourable, then production in Rio Grande do Sul should grow from 6.2 million tons in 2001/02 to 8.4 million or even 9 million tons, Sartori said.
Market analysts were also sceptical of the USDA estimate of Brazil’s 2001/02 soya crop, which it maintained at 43.5 million tons despite climatic problems in states such as Rio Grande do Sul, Bahia and Piaui.
Nobody bought that tonnage, said MPrado’s Galvao, who like other local analysts estimated the crop at about 41.5 million tons.
The official estimate by the government’s crop supply agency Conab was 41.9 million tons.
However, most analysts believe that the USDA’s Argentine 2002/03 soyabean crop forecast of 33.5 million tons was conservative and should be raised.
It’s still very early to make changes because the Argentine harvest is even later than that of Rio Grande do Sul (starting late March), said Galvao, who toured Argentine soya farms last week.—Reuters