PESHAWAR, Dec 31: Improvement recorded at the macro level by the military regime and signals emanating from the federal government viz-a-viz expected abolition of the negative list concerning Afghan Transit Trade (ATT) coupled with greater export prospects in the war-torn Afghanistan have made the NWFP trade and business community to pin high hopes on the year 2003.

Besides, the recently signed agreement between the Sarhad Chamber of Commerce and Industry (SCCI) and Kabul Chamber of Commerce and Industry (KCCI) to promote bilateral trade has, apparently, raised the level of optimism among the trade and business circles of NWFP who believe that the new year would not be as uncertain as was 2002.

“The next year would certainly be better than the last one, if the improvement recorded at the macro level trickles down to the micro level in 2003,” said Jamshed Sawal, former president of the SCCI.

However, consistently decreasing exports from NWFP in the post 9/11 situation and closure of over 250 floor mills in addition to closing down of more than 1,700 industrial units in the province leave little hope for a large segment of the trade and business society.

“One can hardly expect that the new year would be different than 2002,” said Pervez Ilahi, who owns a small industrial concern.

Those who see a ray of hope in the next year feel that improvement recorded under the macroeconomic indicators would not benefit the common people unless the government adopts policies which could boost up economic activities at the micro level.

To make this happen, maintained Sawal, government should start spending in the construction and public sectors. Otherwise, the unprecedented growth under the foreign currency reserves, reduction in the inflation rate, rescheduling of foreign debt and downward revision of the lending rate would not be of any utility to the common people — particularly the consumer class.

Zia-ul-Haq Sarhadi, a known NWFP trader who deals in ATT, foresaw a good year ahead due to the signing of an agreement between the SCCI and KCCI aiming at growing mutual trade.

“There are greater chances that Islamabad may abolish ATT’s negative list on the insistence of Afghan government, if this happens then there would be a lot of trade and business opportunities for the NWFP traders and businessmen,” said Sarhadi.

However, he was quick enough to concede that if the negative list was not done away with, whatever little business the people [dealing in the business] were having would be lost.

Same was the reply by Jamshed Sawal who said that if the government failed to pass on the benefit of the improvement in macroeconomic indicators, the new year, too, would be a repetition of the past.

“The NWFP-based industry could only flourish and survive the tide of difficulties in the post 9/11 scenario if federal government adopts effective policies to take advantage of the increasing opportunities emanating from the reconstruction process in the war-torn Afghanistan,” said an official of the industries department, NWFP.

Russia and China, said the official, would grab the emerging Afghan markets if Pakistan fails to move in the right direction.

The exports from NWFP, said an exporter, were declining in the post 9/11 situation. Similarly, non-custom duty paid items were still finding their way into Pakistan despite deployment of large number of security personnel on the country’s porous boarder with Afghanistan.

Apart from those who appear to be quite optimistic about the business prospects in the next year, there is equally larger number of industrialists and traders who don’t see the year 2003 would be different than the last.