Gujarat polls may make or break BJP

Published December 9, 2002

AHMEDABAD: The place that gave the world Mahatma Gandhi is bracing for a new clash of cultures which once again could shape the future of India.

The western state of Gujarat, home of India’s independence leader, holds an election for a new state assembly on Thursday billed as a litmus test of the electoral popularity of a wave of Hindu nationalist revivalism.

On one side is the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), backed by hardliners who want to revive a Hindu culture they say was destroyed by centuries of Muslim and British rule.

On the other is the opposition Congress, supported by a motley array of BJP critics who see the seeds of fascism in the Hindu revivalism and fear a repeat of Hindu-Muslim clashes in Gujarat in February and March in which at least 1,000 died.

“It will be a referendum,” says Pravin Togadiya, a leader of the Vishwa Hindu Parishad.

The opposition says the Hindu hardliners are whipping up fear and intolerance and say if such tactics are allowed to succeed and spread, they will destroy India’s secular traditions established at independence in 1947.

“The forthcoming elections in Gujarat are a battle for the soul of India,” the Congress manifesto says.

Not only will Gujarat succumb, say BJP critics, but the hardline influence could ultimately cripple Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee, who has stuck to a more moderate course at the helm of a national coalition, which includes secular parties.

“If they get 120 or 130 seats (out of 182), they would repeat this at the national level,” said Gujarati analyst Achyut Yagnik.

“The Vajpayee era would be over. You will see a more aggressive and dangerous face of the BJP,” he said.

Poll forecasts are mixed for the Dec 12 election. The BJP will face no challenge from Muslims, who make up less than nine per cent of Gujarat’s population.

But to win they have to unite the Hindu vote, traditionally fractured down caste and geographical lines. In turn, Congress is trying to get voters to focus instead on policy.

—Reuters