ALMOST every observer who has commented on this month’s post-election protests in Russia has been at pains to point out that they do not constitute a Tahrir Square moment for the world’s largest country.
This seems to be a reasonably accurate assessment, although one can hardly ignore the fact that these protests have occurred towards the end of what has been a remarkably tough year not just for dictators but even for ostensibly democratic regimes that have lost touch with broad sections of the citizenry they pretend to represent.
The unrest also coincides with the 20th anniversary of Russia’s rebirth as a stand-alone republic: the Soviet Union ceased to exist in December 1991, and its last president, Mikhail Gorbachev, formally bowed out on Christmas Day. His position had been fatally undermined by an attempted coup in August whereby prominent hardliners in the Communist Party had sought to halt the reformist tide — they had been particularly alarmed by plans to usher in a new union treaty incorporating substantially enhanced autonomy for the USSR’s constituent republics.
That late summer, in fact, was when Moscow witnessed what could be described as a ‘Russian Spring’: Muscovites of varying political stripes were determined to prevent the clock from being turned back. Multitudes of them poured out on to the streets — and, thankfully, the soldiers who had been ordered to patrol the city in their tanks were disinclined to mow down fellow citizens. The blundering coup-makers had placed Gorbachev under house arrest in a Crimean retreat but evidently hadn’t thought of extending the same courtesy to Boris Yeltsin, the president of the Russian Soviet republic, who emerged from the parliamentary premises known as the White House and, standing on top of a tank, defiantly rallied opposition to the extraordinary committee that had decreed a state of emergency.
If this was Yeltsin’s finest moment, arguably the worst phase of his subsequent rule focussed on the same landmark when, a couple of years later, the same White House was pounded by artillery under his orders with the aim of cowing a recalcitrant Russian parliament into submission.
Back in August 1991, Gorbachev was able to return to the Kremlin within days and felt obliged to disband the Communist Party. He resumed his efforts to renegotiate the union treaty, but was pre-empted by Yeltsin who, at a conclave with his counterparts from Ukraine and Belarus, decided the Soviet Union’s time was up. Stanislav Shushkevich of Belarus was chosen as the one who should break the news to Gorbachev, while Yeltsin simultaneously informed George H.W. Bush in the other White House.
In interviews this year, Gorbachev has hailed Yeltsin’s courage during the coup while denouncing his betrayal and treachery. Not surprisingly, he is equally contemptuous about the coup plotters and believes he ought to have removed them from positions of influence well before the summer of 1991.
In recent years Gorbachev has also been increasingly critical of Vladimir Putin, and this month he was among the first to demand a rerun of the Dec 4 elections amid evidence of extensive irregularities. He wasn’t always hostile to Putin, initially seeing his administration as a useful antidote to the chaos of the Yeltsin years — whose most pernicious effects were perhaps most damningly illustrated by a precipitous decline in the average life span.
Putin’s emergence at the turn of the century coincided with a surge in nostalgia for the Soviet Union, and he has capitalised on that in some ways — albeit largely in terms of increased authoritarianism rather than a nod to the welfare ‘statism’ that also characterised the Soviet way of life. The deep economic fissures of the Yeltsin years, whereby a vast increase in wealth for the few was “balanced” by the further impoverishment of the many who already felt alienated by the advent of the free market, were ameliorated to a small extent amid an international boom in the prices of oil and other resources in which Russia is incredibly rich.
More broadly, though, occasional interruptions in the trend towards privatisation are motivated largely by politics, and Putin’s party, United Russia, is popularly known as the party of thieves and crooks. The administration apparently did not realise the level of decline in its support until early exit polls on Dec 4 pointed to a disastrous result, and a concerted ballot-stuffing campaign was set in motion late in the afternoon. As a result, the official voter turnout in some parts of the country soared well above the 100 per cent mark — but even then United Russia’s overall share fell from 64 per cent four years ago to below 50 per cent.
The protests in Moscow, St Petersburg and a few other cities have been a reaction not only to electoral irregularities but also to Putin’s not particularly surprising announcement earlier in the year that after four years as prime minister, he was ready to resume his previous post as president. A constitutional limit of two consecutive terms meant he had to come up with an alternative in 2008, and his handpicked candidate, Dmitry Medvedev, has kept the seat warm in the interim. The two have not always seen eye to eye, and it remains to be seen whether Medvedev will take over as prime minister following the presidential elections next March.
Although Putin’s personal popularity has also declined and his arrogance has riled some Russians, the image he carefully projects of an athletic strongman (reputedly with a spot of Botox-aided facial reconstruction) has generally done him little harm. With presidential terms henceforth extending to six years, Putin could potentially be in power until 2024 (which would entail a longer tenure than Leonid Brezhnev’s).
That’s not an altogether pleasant prospect for capitalist, semi-democratic Russia. For better or for worse, the country was transformed dramatically under Gorbachev and Yeltsin.Notwithstanding a penchant for stability, it could happen again. As demonstrated by events in other parts of the world, change can be sudden and swift once an authoritarian-minded head of state outstays his welcome.