KARACHI, Nov 22: With the election of Mir Zafarullah Khan Jamali as Prime Minister, the political scene has now shifted from Islamabad to Sindh.

Although there are three other provincial assemblies in the country where swearing-in of the respective members-elect is scheduled for Nov 25 28, all the political circles have centred their focus on the Sindh assembly which was to meet on Nov 25 but within 24 hours of the announcement for the session, the date was advanced by three days.

The impression given for delaying the session is to facilitate the parliamentary parties in selecting their coalition partner in the game of numbers that will eventually help them form a government after the election of Speaker and Deputy Speaker of the House.

The bare majority required for the purpose is 82 members in the House of 163.

Circles close to the Grand National Alliance confided to Dawn that the oath-taking session has been delayed to allow the GNA leadership time to workout mathematics in respect of achieving a simple majority in the House. They pointed out that the GNA had not been able to complete the home work as all of its leaders, including its candidate for the office of the chief minister, Dr Arbab Rahim, were busy in a similar but more important task in Islamabad.

As five members-elect of the Sindh Assembly have now abandoned their provincial seats in order to retain their seats in the National Assembly, the strength of the King’s party — Pakistan Muslim League-Q has reduced to 15 from 18 while its ally, National Alliance, has suffered a loss of two seats and has now 14 members in the House.

The party position in the House indicates that none of the three major groups enjoys simple majority. With 67 seats, Pakistan Peoples Party Parliamentarians is the largest parliamentary party while the second largest is Muttahida Qaumi Movement having 41 members in the House. The GNA has a strength of only 29 members but its candidate, Dr Arbab Rahim, is widely believed to be in a strong position to become the chief minister because of the likely support from a large number of other members.

Arbab Rahim’s rivals in the run are likely to be Nisar Ahmad Khuhro of PPP and Syed Sardar Ahmad of the MQM. However, both the parties are yet to name their candidates. Another candidate in the field was Syed Muzaffar Hussain Shah of PML-F but it would only be a miracle if his name could get an approval from the concerned quarters.

Apparently, the PML-F votes are expected to go to the GNA and if this happened, the alliance will be able to raise its strength to 42.

Other groups in the House are Muttahida Majlis-i-Amal (10), Independents (02) and Mohajir Qaumi Movement (01).

After the election of Speaker, Deputy Speaker and Leader of the House at the Centre, where all slots have gone to PML-Q, there left scant chance of manoeuvring for any other party to compete with the PML-Q, what to talk of the PPP, which is being elbowed out from the seat of power due to some of its own follies and, to an extent, disliking of the rulers.

Moreover, it has been a tradition that the party which forms government at the Centre, leaves no stone unturned in imposing its own government in the provinces, no matter its opponent party enjoys majority there.

The Sindh chief of MMA, Asadullah Bhutto, on his arrival in Karachi on Friday night, was asked whether the alliance had taken a decision on supporting any specific aspirant for the slot of CM. He replied that a meeting would be held to review the situation in the aftermath of the election of the Leader of the House in the National Assembly. He further stated that contacts would be renewed to ascertain as to what they were going to offer to the MMA in lieu of its support.