KARACHI, Sept 24: Final estimates of poverty in the country for the year 2000-01 and provisional estimates for 2001-02 have been drawn up, but government is reluctant to make it public, as it fears a public outcry against its economic policies.
Knowledgeable sources disclosed that the survey of the Federal Bureau of Statistics has found poverty rise during 2000-01 and 2001-02. The government is not ready to share with the public the results of this survey, as it exposes the failure of policy makers in checking the growing income disparities and rise of poverty to unmanageable proportions.
Sources said top brass of the finance ministry wants to conceal this report or destroy it before any of its part is leaked out to public.
REPORT: Sources in Bureau of Statistics confirm of carrying out a poverty survey and that some kind of report was also prepared by July this year. “But it was withdrawn on technical grounds,” a well-placed source confided but did not give more information.
The Economic Survey of the year 2001-2002 released in June this year, has mentioned that the “estimates of poverty for 2000- 01 are at the finalization stage and likely to be available in few months time.” The government is giving no indication of any such survey even after about four months given by the Economic Survey.
Poverty has been on the rise during the entire decade of 1990s and is showing no signs of let up in the initial two years of the first decade of 21st century, the survey establishes.
CAUSES: Blame is being put on persisting drought, fallout of Sept 11 attacks, international recession, unending Indian hostility and the growing militancy by the fundamentalists causing serious law and order situation in Pakistan. But the government also shares the responsibility for focussing entirely on macro-economic stabilization at the cost of growth and equitable distribution of resources.
This survey, sources added, came up for a heated discussion at a meeting with the officials of the World Bank sometimes early this month in Islamabad. The WB executives wondered why the survey findings have not been made public and why there is no debate on this issue. But no mention has been made by the WB of this default.
Officials discard this survey on the plea that correct methodology was not adopted by the Federal Bureau of Statistics in the assessment of poverty rise. More samples of poverty stricken areas were drawn up while giving relatively less weightage to those areas which are relatively less deprived. This was said to be the main argument by the government against its own department claiming to be employing specialists. And therefore, the survey, according to the government officials magnified the poverty rise in Pakistan beyond proportion.
AUTHENTICITY: The 2001-02 Economic Survey reported that the government adopted a calories-based poverty concept and fixed 2,150 calories consumption at Rs 650 per capita per month. Based on this concept the poverty in 1998-99 was found to be 28.2 per cent.
“Poverty in Pakistan is largely a rural phenomenon, as 32 per cent rural population lived below the poverty line as against 19 per cent urban population in 1998-99,” the Economic Survey pointed out.
The World Bank Human Index 2000 put Pakistan on 135th position out of 174 countries. About 31 per cent of Pakistan population was found to earn less than one dollar a day thus implying that every third household in Pakistan does not have sufficient income to afford daily intake of 2,150 calories.
A report prepared of Asian Development Bank prepared by a private consultant mentions poverty at 54 per cent in Balochistan, 53 per cent in Sindh, 29 per cent in Punjab and 24 per cent in NWFP.
The preliminary conclusion of the qualitative poverty assessment (QPA) by Aga Khan University reveals the presence of extreme poverty in rural areas of Sindh. As compared to other provinces, social indicators in Sindh are very low. Large number of people earn little and consume little.