OSAKA, Sept 21: Global energy supplies will remain abundant until 2030 with demand expected to grow by two-thirds but access, particularly for impoverished countries, is critical, a key report released on Saturday said.
According to the World Energy Outlook, which appears every two years by the International Energy Agency (IEA), fossil fuels will continue to dominate the global energy mix with natural gas outpacing other forms of energy.
The 521-page report found the overall number of people without electricity would fall by one-third in 2030 but 1.4 billion people would still lack access to electricity compared with 1.6 billion currently, or a quarter of the world.
Another 2.6 billion people will rely on traditional biomass — wood, agricultural residues and dung — for cooking and heating in 2030, compared with some 2.4 billion people currently.
It found that developing countries would need investment of 2.1 trillion dollars to meet growing demand for electricity alone which was more than double power generation investment in these countries over the last 30 years.
“On the basis of present policies, carbon dioxide emissions from energy use will continue to grow steeply.
“New technologies will emerge on the energy scene within 30 years; but it will be much longer before they become dominant,” the outlook said.
Robert Priddle, executive director of the Paris-based IEA, said the report was the IEA’s most ambitious, projecting energy supply, demand, prices, trade and carbon emissions from now until 2030.
“Despite our plentiful resources, there are formidable challenges,” he said. “Consuming countries will increasingly depend, especially for oil, on a small number of producers, some of them located in unstable political areas.”
He said members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), particularly the Middle East, along with non-OPEC member Russia would remain the focus of oil and gas production.
The report was released in Osaka at the International Energy Forum and urged a concerted international effort in tackling problems associated with demands for energy.
“Far too many people in the world lack access to modern energy and that energy poverty is not set to end,” Priddle said.
“And, despite serious efforts by many nations, energy-related carbon dioxide emissions, which threaten to change the earth’s climate decisively continue to grow.”
The outlook forecast that demand for coal would grow, but at a slower pace than oil and gas, with China and India together accounting for two-thirds of the increase in global demand.
“In all regions, coal use will become increasingly concentrated in power generation, where it will remain the dominant fuel.”
However, the role of nuclear fuel in power generation was expected to decline markedly after reaching its peak at the end of this decade. The report predicted the share of nuclear demand for global energy will hold steady at about seven per cent through to 2010 then fall to five per cent by the 2030.—AFP