Commerce minister’s wishful thinking

Published September 20, 2002

KARACHI, Sept 19: In a country where average per capita monthly income is hardly Rs2,000, about 40 per cent people are under nourished, housing stock is one of the lowest in the world and electric power breakdowns are frequent and regular features, Pakistan’s Industries and Commerce Minister Abdul Razak Dawood wants every household to have televisions, refrigerators, air-conditioners, washing machines and cars and for that matter any durable item that comes to mind.

And he does not mind at all if all these items are imported, because consumers have a right of choice to get best things at the lowest possible price. The minister launched with religious zeal, on Wednesday, a marketing campaign of foreign assembled televisions, and gave a call to the people to get rid of “made in Pakistan” obsession. He performed well on Wednesday at the NBP Committee Room.

“We cannot produce everything ourselves,” he observed and told the representatives of a Pakistani company that enjoys dealership and assembly rights of the foreign television sets in Pakistan “not to be apologetic”.

The occasion was the launching of “ghar ghar television” scheme on Wednesday for which the National Bank of Pakistan will start providing from next month Rs10,000 to Rs100,000 credit on 13 per cent interest. About 2,000 jobs are promised by the company executives during the next one year on successful implementation of this consumer financing scheme.

NBP President Ali Reza said that assets in the form of homes and land were lying idle and their conversion into cash could generate a lot of economic activity and contribute towards expansion of industry. He proposed that about 10 to 12 per cent of such asset value could be put to use for purchase of durables.

But then is it not a fact that bulk of the Rs260 billion bad loan portfolio of banks in Pakistan is tied up with fixed assets and real estates. Has the liquification of these fixed assets brought any change in the economic environment of the country?

No bank has come out with any information so far of how much it has been able to recover from the auction of the land and junk machines of the closed industrial units. The two committees formed by the government consider it prudent to conceal these facts from the public in general and depositors of the banks in particular.

Then the question is if liquification of fixed assets is the only answer to all “our economic woes than why Japan is still limping from the terrible shock of eighties decade when real estate values crashed and mighty banks crumbled.” The bubble had burst in decade of eighties and since then Japan reports bankruptcies in thousands every year and market is simply not expanding.

There is Japan, all fixed assets — homes, lands and durables — were tied with the bank loans, lease financing and other financial services. Once the real estate values crashed, there was an all round turmoil of unprecedented level in the market and one bank after the other started crumbling down.

And what about the electric power supply. What has this government done in the last three years to improve the generation and distribution of electricity except handing over Wapda and KESC to the army officers. These two utilities are now in worse shape, both operationally and financially, than what they were three years ago. Does the commerce minister know that there have been electric power riots recently near Peshawar and it does happen in many parts of Karachi because of long interruptions in electric supply. Have the bankers and the minister given a thought how much demand for electric power will rise if all households have all these durables.

Deposits in the banks are the money earned and saved by the community. This deposit should be invested for the welfare of the community. And consumer financing is one such effective way in a principle that no one would question. But in Pakistan where industrial landscape is littered with dead, dying and sick industries, unemployment is on rise and market has shrunk, the top priority should be revival of national industry.

It has to be led by the government. Economists say that the government should provide at least 5 per cent of the budget for the public sector development programme. It should be anywhere from Rs250 to Rs300 billion outlay. What is being done to provide each and every Pakistani with a decent housing, education, health and a healthy environment.

And then, has anyone taken notice of the growing inequality of income distribution in the country. Even if a few thousand households managed to get all the durables, that Razak Dawood wants, will it restore peace and harmony in Pakistan, is a question that begs for an answer from the government.

Or else, one would be justified to conclude that Pakistan’s industries minister is echoing World Bank proposal to close down all key industries.

And by the way, what has the Ministry of Commerce done to improve exports that stagnate around $9 billion a year. Razak Dawood is happy on the results of July-August exports but is as much uncertain about the remaining period of the year as anyone else.

Thanks to the policy of this government that a consumer in foreign countries now gets Pakistani wheat at about Rs6.40 a kilogramme but those in Pakistan buy it at Rs8.50 to Rs9 a kilogramme. Perhaps those who benefit from this policy in the government or in the trade will buy all these durables.