ANKARA: In the unpredictable world of Turkish politics, there is one player that stands firm, lending a guiding hand and guaranteeing the principles of the secular state it vows to defend at all costs.
The military has carried out three coups since 1960 and as recently as 1997 forced an Islamist-led government out of power on the grounds that it threatened to overturn Muslim Turkey’s fierce brand of secularism.
“We don’t have a government. The prime minister is sick, everybody is looking forward to elections. The only establishment we have is the army,” said Atilla Yayla, professor of political science at Hacettepe University.
Prime Minister Bulent Ecevit fought a losing battle last month to avert early elections, now set for November 3.
For several months his three-party coalition had been crumbling, divisions deepening over joining the European Union. Ecevit fell ill at the start of May and was away from his desk for nearly two months.
The army sees itself as the guardian of Turkey’s secular democracy, and has always handed back power after its coups. Surveys show it is the most trusted institution in Turkey.
But the army’s persistent influence in civilian life is at odds with Turkey’s stated aim of joining the EU, a goal publicly embraced by the generals.
Yayla said the army would play a crucial role in the coming months both in domestic politics and on the international stage.
Turkey’s election comes at a time of growing speculation that Washington is preparing military action in Iraq to topple President Saddam Hussein. The United States is expected to lean heavily on its NATO-ally Turkey for support in the operation.
“The army will decide what to do in all these issues, which is good for the United States,” Yayla said, adding that the military would prefer to be involved in any US action but would drive a hard bargain to protect Turkey’s interests.
Turkey fears war in Iraq would damage its already fragile economy, recovering from a deep crisis last year, and could lead to the creation of a Kurdish state in northern Iraq that Ankara fears would encourage separatism among its own restive Kurds.
Ankara, led by the generals, will be seeking concrete guarantees before it commits itself to help in an attack.
DIVIDED CYPRUS: The attitude of the military will also be crucial in another foreign policy conundrum — finding a solution on the divided island of Cyprus where peace talks underway since January have made little progress so far.
Cyprus has been effectively partitioned since Turkey invaded in 1974 in response to an Athens-backed Greek Cypriot military coup. Only Ankara recognizes the self-declared Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus and many in Turkey believe the problem was solved with the 1974 “liberation”.
Peace talks have been given added urgency by the fact that Cyprus is close to finalising membership of the EU, expected to happen in 2004 or 2005. Ankara has threatened to annex the north if Cyprus is admitted without a solution, creating the potential for a major crisis in Turkey’s relations with the EU.
Turkey’s newly appointed chief of general staff, General Hilmi Ozkok, has plenty of experience on Cyprus. As head of Turkey’s land forces until his promotion this weekend, he has visited the island frequently and has made clear his firm support for Turkish Cypriot leader Rauf Denktash’s hard line.
On a visit to Cyprus in January, Ozkok said a solution based on two sovereign states was the only way to prevent a crisis in the region. Such an idea is anathema to Greek Cypriots. Ozkok warned of problems if the EU accepts Cyprus without a solution.
“We think that such a development will cause a continuous crisis atmosphere in the east Mediterranean,” he said.
On the domestic side too there are some who warn of looming crisis. The Justice and Development Party, AK, formed from the ashes of an Islamist party banned last year, has topped most opinion polls in recent months.
“It wouldn’t really make so much difference who is in charge (of the military) if AK Party is the winner,” said Professor Hasan Unal of Bilkent University.
“That would certainly plunge the country into enormous chaos and the current military leadership will have a difficult job.”
Unal predicted Ozkok would be as tough on AK as his predecessors were on Necmettin Erbakan, Turkey’s first Islamist prime minister, whose government was forced from power in 1997. Western diplomats, however, say AK leader Recep Tayyip Erdogan has made efforts to move away from his Islamist roots and on policy he now resembles other conservative parties.
Military analyst Mehmet Ali Kislali said the generals would be unlikely to act hastily even if AK were to come to power.
“Of course they would be worried and they would follow developments very carefully, and if they think the basic principles of the republic are in danger, they may (do something),” Kislali said.
“Nobody should make a wrong calculation,” Kislali said. “I’m sure Erdogan...learned a lot in the last few years so I don’t expect they would make the same stupid mistakes of Erbakan.”—Reuters