BEIJING: As Chinese leaders gather in the seaside resort of Beidaihe to thrash out details of a leadership change, rumours are spreading fast that Jiang Zemin is making a play to stay on as head of the Communist Party.

The idea is based largely on a state media campaign extolling his plan to modernize the party as well as reports of private letters and circulars sent to Central Committee members commending his leadership, academics and diplomats say.

But while no one is certain of the outcome of the secretive Beidaihe meetings, many analysts play down the likelihood of Jiang keeping the country’s top job after a five-yearly party congress in September or October.

Jiang, 75, and other leaders had been expected to leave their party posts at the congress and their government jobs at a parliament meeting next year to make way for a new generation fronted by Hu Jintao, the current vice-president, as party chief.

If Jiang does stay on, he would be breaking the unwritten rule that leaders should not seek office after 70, possibly prompting others, like parliament chief Li Peng, to do the same.

That could undermine the ideal of staging the first orderly leadership succession of the Communist era and besmirch Jiang’s own record in the annals of Chinese history.

POWER BEHIND THE CURTAIN: re is no doubt Jiang is concerned about maintaining his political influence, personal interests and historical legacy after the congress, analysts say.

He has long been expected to try to stay on as head of the Central Military Commission (CMC), commander-in-chief of the armed forces, as his predecessor Deng Xiaoping did.

But rumours Jiang will also remain party chief began circling a few weeks ago, fuelled by media eulogies that critics say recall the personality cult of Chairman Mao Zedong.

The pro-Jiang campaign revolves around his “Three Represents” theory that the Communist Party represents advanced productive forces, advanced culture and a wide sector of the population.

Some analysts trace the rumours to a speech by Jiang at the Central Party School on May 31 in which — in a section edited out of state media reports at the time — he praised the successes of the third generation of leaders he represents.

Jiang’s supporters say Hu lacks the experience and authority to handle the complex problems facing China, such as the economic and social impact of its entry to the World Trade Organization.

The international climate is also complicated by the hawkish administration of US President George W. Bush and the lack of progress in relations with Taiwan, they say.

“Jiang has deluded himself into thinking he is somehow indispensable,” said James Mulvenon, China analyst at the Rand Corp in the United States. “But the graveyards are full of indispensable people.”

CHINA’S GEORGE WASHINGTON: A strong argument against Jiang staying on as party chief is that he has neither sufficient support on the Central Committee nor the personal authority to impose his will on the party, unlike Mao or Deng.

Cheng Li, an academic who does extensive research on the background of party officials, says many Central Committee members are not from Jiang’s support base of Shanghai and are unlikely to vote for him at the congress.

“Jiang does not have the power to do what he wants,” said Li, professor of government at Hamilton College in New York. “There are limits on his power. I think most people want him to go.”

The media campaign praising the “Three Represents” is paving the way for its incorporation into the party constitution, not necessarily for Jiang to stay on, he said.

One theory is that Jiang’s camp is floating the idea as a negotiating tactic to ensure he can remain CMC chairman.

Another is that Jiang wants to delay retirement by a few months to avoid being a lame duck on a visit to United States, scheduled in November.

But perhaps the best argument against Jiang staying on is that he would jeopardize his chance of a place in the pantheon of Chinese Communist leaders alongside Mao and Deng.

“The dangers of him staying on — if he’s looking at this clear-headedly — are fairly extensive,” said the diplomat. “It will take from him being China’s first George Washington, who once he had established a system, backed out to say ‘okay, it’s now time for my successor’.”

“That would be perhaps even a greater legacy and make him, even in Chinese minds, a greater leader than staying on.”—Reuters