WASHINGTON: As the Bush administration continues debating a proposal to create an provisional Palestinian state, signs are mounting that the idea could face a rocky domestic reception.
While some experts on the region — such as former president Clinton and his chief Middle East negotiator, Dennis Ross — have praised the notion, other initial reactions indicate it could face a cross-fire of resistance from Republicans and Democrats.
Even before Bush finalizes his proposal, conservatives are charging that the president would be rewarding hardliners if he endorses a provisional Palestinian state in the wake of the latest suicide bombings against Israelis.
“It gives momentum to the terrorists by allowing them to say we got this (recognition) by doing things our way,” said Gary J. Schmitt, executive director of the Project for a New American Century, a conservative foreign policy think-tank.
Democratic officials and analysts worry that the idea doesn’t directly address enough Israeli or Palestinian concerns to change the behaviour of either side in the conflict — especially since Bush previously has indicated he would support a permanent state for the Palestinians if they stop ‘terrorism’.
“I just fail to see how (the idea) moves anything, anywhere,” Rep. Richard A. Gephardt, D-Mo., the House minority leader, said in an interview.
White House officials privately express some frustration at such remarks, arguing that the final proposal will address many of the critics’ concerns.
But the skeptical responses suggest that Bush is still caught between Arab pressure for steps to provide the Palestinians greater hope of a political solution and an American leadership hostile toward any measures that seem to reward violence or give legitimacy to Palestinian Authority President Yasser Arafat. And the latest violence is complicating Bush’s position by heightening resistance to any increased Palestinian autonomy — not only in Israel but among its supporters in Congress.
“I don’t know how you create a state out of chaos in a place where terrorists are running the show,” said Gephardt.
Likewise, Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., said on CNN earlier this week: “How in the world could you enhance (Arafat’s) status and that of the Palestinians to statehood, unless (the violence) stops?”
Beyond increased sensitivity to Palestinian resistance after Sept 11, underlying political currents in both parties are creating pressures that could shrink the congressional audience for Bush’s eventual initiative.
Conservative Christians, a key GOP constituency, have grown more resistant to any moves they perceive as constraining Israel or rewarding the Palestinians.
Meanwhile, concern that Bush’s generally strong support of Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon might open inroads for the president among American Jews is increasing pressure on Democrats to move to Bush’s right on the issue, party insiders say.
“Whereas a couple of years ago, for the American Jewish community Israel was diminishing as an issue, it has reasserted itself at the top of the agenda,” said a lobbyist for a leading Jewish organization. “I think that it makes sense for the Democrats to not allow themselves to get outflanked on this (by Bush).”
Senior officials told The Times that after the latest attacks, Bush has become especially determined to avoid “doing anything that can possibly be interpreted as a reward for the Palestinians’ behaviour.”
Still, close administration observers expect the plan, when finally released, to call for creation of a provisional Palestinian state with temporary borders — once the Palestinian Authority has undertaken sweeping reforms and moved to stop terrorist attacks on Israel.
Under the proposal, negotiations would be deferred on the underlying issues — such as permanent borders and the right of return for Palestinian refugees — that derailed the search for a final Israeli-Palestinian agreement during the Clinton administration.
The idea’s supporters believe it might provide the spark for renewed progress at a time when the two sides are too bloodied and embittered to reach a permanent agreement.
Ivo Daalder, a former Clinton national security aide, argued that the lengthy negotiation the administration appears to envision — even with the promise of a provisional state along the way — is unlikely to provide sufficient inducement for reform by the Palestinian Authority or a crackdown on anit-Israel hardliners.—Dawn/The Los Angeles Times News Service.