PRAGUE: Uneasy about immigration and crime, Western Europe is shifting to the political right.
Seeking economic reassurance and smooth entry to the European Union, voters in the young democracies of central and eastern Europe are turning to the centre left.
Plans for EU enlargement, the 15-nation bloc’s most ambitious project in decades, are to be finalized late this year and invitations to join will be sent to up to 10 candidate states.
But the changing political scenery risks complicating the enlargement endgame.
The rightist trend in the West — from France and Italy to Denmark and the Netherlands, via Spain, Portugal and Austria, and maybe even Germany at September elections — is fuelled by fears over immigration, a key theme at next week’s EU summit in Seville, Spain.
While most immigrants originate outside Europe, many come from the EU candidate states and more travel through them.
Experts argue that in the long term the EU needs an influx of skilled workers to offset the impact of an ageing population, but populist leaders address anxieties felt in the short term.
Voters in the West have flocked to parties that rail against mass immigration, tilting the balance of power and prompting a closer look at the costs and risks of enlargement.
RIGHT OUT OF FAVOUR: On the eastern side of the old Iron Curtain, tough entry terms demanded by Brussels and EU members could erode popular support for joining the EU.
Most candidates plan EU referendums next year.
There are fears that the newcomers to the EU will be treated as second class citizens, starved of Brussels cash payouts and forced to push through harsh economic reforms too quickly.
Central Europeans want to be part of a modern EU but not at any cost, after years of painful reform and large-scale restructuring. Many are not ready to give up their social safety nets.
For now, voters in candidate nations are shunning charismatic populists who warn of the loss of national identity in the EU and demanding fairer terms for their farmers, truckers and small businesses.
Three leading candidates — Hungary, Poland and the Czech Republic — have all recently elected centre-left governments that campaigned on smooth and swift integration into the EU.
The centre right has generally fared badly, being blamed for bungling reforms, in-fighting, corruption and cronyism.
Hungary’s Viktor Orban narrowly lost elections in April after irritating neighbouring states, financial markets and Brussels.
Abrasive former Czech conservative premier Vaclav Klaus was crushed in weekend elections as voters rejected a discredited deal that gave his Civic Democrats a share of power despite election defeat four years ago.
Turnout over the two-day poll was a record low, at 58 per cent.
Last September, Polish voters booted out the heirs to the Solidarity movement and turned to ex-communist leftists who promised EU entry but with some safeguards on jobs and incomes.
HAVES AND HAVE-NOTS: The shift to a moderate EU-friendly left shows central Europe’s desire to join the West, now the region’s key trading partner, but also suggests underlying tensions over the pace of economic reforms.
The 12-year transition from central planning to free markets has delivered robust growth across the region and boosted living standards... for some.
Millions more have been left on the wrong side of a gaping wealth divide, many of them worse off than they were under communism.
Although foreign money poured into the capital cities, an army of unemployed was created as communist-era heavy industry was switched off.
Hungary’s Social Democrats came to power pledging to bridge the economic divide, acknowledging economic gains had been unevenly spread.
“Voters have sent us a clear message, they wanted a move to the left,” said Vaclav Klaus, conceding defeat on Saturday. “This is a failure, not merely our failure, but a failure of the right.”—Reuters