THE need for new storages, wherever feasible on the Indus and other rivers, was recognized by the Water Accord 1991, but construction of a dam on Indus, especially at Kalabagh has become a contentious issue.

What is obstructing a national project of vital importance that promises irrigation of three million acres of land and generation of 2400 mw of cheap power? Time has come when an answer to this question must be found for our survival. We will have to dispassionately analyze different viewpoints to come to a logical conclusion. To do this, we will have to start from the beginning.

Indus is the largest of the six great rivers of the Indus Basin. The Indus Water Treaty of 1960 allocated the three rivers, Ravi, Beas and Sutluj, with a total annual flow of 33 million acre feet (maf), to India and the three Western rivers, Chenab, Jhelum and Indus, with a total annual flow of about 140 maf, to Pakistan.

Pre-independence (1940-45) water usages:
 

After the Independence, new barrages were built on Indus along with their canal systems to augment the irrigated agriculture. Kalabagh barrage was built in 1947, Kotri in 1955, Taunsa in 1958 and Guddu in 1962. Consequent to the Indus Water Treaty, replacement works comprising Mangla dam, barrages and link canals were built which made good the loss of water from the eastern rivers. Water usages during 1965-70 increased to 97.57 maf as under:

A history of mistrust is central to water distribution. In the past 70-80 years, integrated hydraulics reaching water budget constraints, have led to riparian conflicts. The government appointed a number of committees and commissions to resolve the water distribution issues which finally resulted in the historic 1991 Water Accord. In the meantime, while Pakistan’s population grew to 150 million, the growth in water sector remained stagnant because the waters of the Indus system were not apportioned to the provinces till 1991. The use of available water from Tarbela was not optimized for agricultural expansion and development. It was consumed in a most haphazard manner through the existing canals of Punjab and Sindh. Post-Tarbela (1977-87) water use increased from 97.57 maf to 104.53 maf as under:
 

In the absence of planned expansion of irrigation system, Tarbela water was added to the existing systems of Punjab and Sindh with serious consequences in terms of water logging and salinity. Although water utilization in NWFP increased from 4.89 to 5.62 MAF, this was basically in the civil canals situated above the rim stations as the province neither had the necessary infrastructure to utilize water from Tarbela nor it could get any new scheme approved in the absence of water apportionment between the provinces.

The Water Apportionment Accord 1991 distributed the waters of the Indus Basin among the provinces as under:
 

The accord recognizes the need for future storages for agricultural expansion and distributes the flood water as well as the water from future storages between the four provinces in the ratio of Punjab 37, Sindh 37, NWFP 14 and Balochistan 12 per cent.

After allocation of 114.35 maf from the average annual inflow of 140 MAF, a balance of about 25 maf remains unutilized and flows out to sea. Ten maf is optimally required for escapage to sea below Kotri for environmental protection and approximately 15 maf remains surplus for storage and year round utilization. Kalabagh dam with the maximum retention level of 915.00 and storage of 5.2 maf, can effectively regulate 15 maf throughout the year, which will be distributed as under: