BoE likely to raise rates

Published February 5, 2004

LONDON, Feb 4: The Bank of England is widely expected to raise interest rates this week for the second time within three months to try to deflate a consumer debt bubble and cool sizzling house prices, analysts said.

A quarter point increase in interest rates by the central bank's monetary policy committee (MPC) on Thursday to 4 per cent is seen as a done deal, with all 25 analysts polled by AFP's financial newswire AFX predicting such a move.

Last November the Bank of England became the first of the world's four major central banks to hike rates for several years.

Meanwhile the US Federal Reserve has only just started hinting of rate increases, while European Central Bank officials will more likely be talking about a rate cut when they meet on Thursday in Frankfurt.

But in Britain figures released last month showing that gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 0.9 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2003 - the fastest quarterly pace for almost four years - set the stage for another hike, analysts said.

Thursday's meeting "takes place against a general background of an economic recovery, which is becoming ever more entrenched," said Philip Shaw, economist at Investec Securities. "If anything the signs are that the economy is stepping up a gear or two."

A particular concern for the policymakers is Britons' seemingly insatiable appetite for borrowing, which analysts fear - if left unchecked - could cause serious problems as interest rates go up.-AFP