MOSCOW: President Vladimir Putin may not like what he sees in Ukraine, but he can be confident a "people power" revolution is unlikely to spread to Russia despite political similarities with its neighbour, analysts say.
The turmoil in Ukraine just a year after a peaceful coup in Georgia, on Russia's southern rim, is bound to have some repercussions on its political house however, they say.
What has alarmed the Kremlin about events in the two ex-Soviet states is that the mass protests, triggered by rigged elections, are fundamentally directed at the same political model as espoused by Putin's Russia.
"Much of the irritation demonstrated by our leaders comes from the fear that the collapse of the model of 'managed democracy' in the post-Soviet space would create a precedent," liberal analyst Andrei Pyontkovsky said.
In essence, this model in Russia adds up to strong central control over political parties, parliament and media. After the victory of Georgia's Western-leaning Mikhail Saakashvili in December last year, Moscow invested much effort to prevent a repetition of a similar scenario in Ukraine, Russia's closest ally by history and culture.
These efforts culminated in Putin himself publicly plumping for the establishment candidate in the Nov 21 election, that subsequently turned out to have been fiddled.
But, though events in Ukraine have not developed the way Moscow would have liked, analysts do not see any prospect of an "orange revolution" in Russia that could shake the Kremlin-dominated political structure.
An absence of public discontent and of a strong political opposition take away two vital ingredients for such upheavals, Lilia Shevtsova of Carnegie Endowment for International Peace said.
Nor is there any sign of any break-down of consensus within the national elite that in Russia combines powerful business forces, policy-makers and top layers of the bureaucracy, that includes the military and security forces.
PUTIN POPULARITY: As leaders, Georgia's Eduard Shevardnadze and Ukraine's Leonid Kuchma were largely discredited. Putin, by contrast, remains by far the most popular politician in Russia and the country itself enjoys relative stability and strong economic growth after a decade of post-Soviet political upheaval.
Putin's latest political reform, which would scrap gubernatorial elections, toughen rules for creating parties and close parliamentary doors to independent deputies, has alarmed the West as a sign of Russia rolling back from democracy. Putin denies such suggestions.
Russia's elite finds the Soviet-style rules of the game that Putin offers more acceptable than the no-rules chaos of the first years after the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991.
"There are no serious groups inside the Russian elite keen to change the regime," Shevtsova said. Nor does he have to worry about the opposition, which has proven itself incapable of formulating a programme or uniting to reach its political goals.
By contrast with Ukraine, it has taken Putin's liberal opponents a year to timidly put to the Supreme Court their complaints about alleged Kremlin manipulation of parliamentary elections, in which they lost their seats.
DOMESTIC POLICY: But Georgia's "Rose Revolution" and the "Orange Revolution" proclaimed by the opposition in Ukraine are certain to force Putin to make changes to policy at home, the analysts said.
"There are two possible options - to tighten the screws or to try a compromise with the opposition," Shevtsova said. "I think a further toughening of the bureaucratic, autocratic regime is to be expected," she added.
Some analysts suggest the Kremlin may now on the contrary choose to show more political flexibility at home to at least provide a safety valve and let political steam off.
"The Ukrainian elections could deliver a sober message to those who are keen to exploit 'managed democracy'," former Moscow Mayor Gavriil Popov said. "Our ruling elite, with relevant pressure from the West, may ease authoritarian instincts to survive."
Last week Putin, who has reduced his parliamentary contacts to the leaders of the pro-Kremlin United Russia majority, ordered his ministers to talk more to opposition. "I know, for practical reasons, that you maintain close contacts with United Russia, but you also need to consult with the opposition," Putin said. "I say this not for the sake of saying it." -Reuters