KARACHI, May 13: Business leaders of Pakistan are confident that trade relations with India would improve irrespective of the fact that which of the parties in the Indian election forms the government.
Industrialists and business leaders contacted by Dawn to seek comments over political change in India and its impact on two way trade, they said that the business community was optimistic and looking forward to enhancing trade between the two countries.
"We welcome the political change in India for further betterment of two way trade and hope that relations will get a boost," president Federation of Pakistan Chambers of Commerce and Industry (FPCCI), Riaz Ahmed Tata said.
It would not make any negative impact on the trade between the two countries, he told Dawn. "The real two-way trade between the two countries is yet to start."
He was confident that the Congress-led government in India would continue the previous government's economic policies. He said an inter-ministerial meeting of the representatives of India and Pakistan was held recently in Islamabad in a cordial manner.
The president, Karachi Chamber of Commerce and Industry (KCCI), Siraj Kassam Teli, who led a high level delegation to India from February 21-March 1, 2004, feels more of the same. He said trade relations will improve in future no matter which political party comes into power.
On political relation with the new Indian government, the KCCI chief said that the Kashmir issue would decide the fate of political relations. Senior Vice President of the KCCI, Mohammad Saeed Shafiq said that he did not foresee any setback to the trade relations between the two countries in view of political change in India because in times of globalization and competent business environment, the survival of both the countries lie in regional trade.
He said that governments on both sides of the border knew the public aspirations and business community also favours peace. "I think the Congress is more liberal as compared to Bhartia Janta Party (BJP)," Saeed said.
He recalled the Indian visit where a strong desire was witnessed to forge enduring trade relations with Pakistani businessmen. He added that there was a complete unanimity at least on one point that the volume of trade between the two countries was not in commensurate with the potential.
The recorded trade between India and Pakistan is not more than $250 million, but through third country and illegal channels, it is more than two billion dollars.
The actual potential of trade between the two countries is estimated within the vicinity of $10 to 15 billion, which is to be fully explored and expanded by adopting common approaches and joint-strategies.
The chairman, Site Association of Industry, Mohammad Nisar Sheikhani said that the new government in India could not change the current mindset of Indian public and the industrialists as both are in favour of free trade relations.
Pakistani business community also want trade relations between the two countries to flourish further. Exchange of trade delegations and Safta agreement in the last few months were enough to judge the intentions of the governments.
"I think the Congress led government is more moderate and will definitely not reverse the prevailing calm trade related developments, particularly the SAFTA agreement, as it is also in the interest of the new Indian government," Site chief said.
Chairman Korangi Association of Trade and Industry (KATI), Mian Zahid Hussain also forecasted a positive future business outlook between the two countries no matter which party runs the new Indian government.
"Trade relations will improve," he said adding that both the governments are well aware of their economic and political situations in the region and they are now focussing on improving the volume of regional trade.
Currently, a wave of improving political and economic relations is going with a swift pace and hopefully, the Congress people, considered more moderate, would endeavour to further push up the economic activities between the two countries. Likewise, political relations are also likely to improve in near future.
According to KCCI findings, many businessmen were of the view that trade with India was not a threat but an opportunity. In an era of globalisation, which contemplates liberalization of trade also, the maxim of 'survival of the fittest' would be the touchstone of trade promotion. As such the days of captive market will no more return.
It is however a fact that the Indian industry enjoys supremacy in value-added goods, including engineering, auto-industry, cement, pharmaceutical, chemicals, software and other high-tech industries, whereas Pakistan edge lies in certain categories of textile products, leather goods, fruits, vegetables, etc.
The freer trade with India would also eliminate or at least contain the element of smuggling or trade through third country.
The governments of both the countries would, therefore, be beneficiary in terms of tax-revenue and the businessmen would be able to purchase low cost of goods at a comparatively low freight rates. The consumers at large will be benefited as a result of fierce competition.
The Indian businessmen identify a few road-blocks including the problem in travelling, emanating from police-reporting, non- grant of MFN status to India and the growing volume of trade through illegal channels and smuggling, causing stifling-effect on the genuine trade and industry as well as loss of revenue to the governments.