ISLAMABAD, March 13: Environmentalists have warned Pakistan of threats to food security because of a staggering decline in the production of food crops due to water shortages, climate changes and natural calamities.
Pakistan now produces more than 30 million metric tons of carbon emissions, registering an almost four-fold increase from one million metric tons in 1988, while the country’s forest cover is suffering from the world’s worst deforestation rate. Experts on climate change here on Thursday revealed some disturbing figures during a dialogue on the “scoping study” conducted in Karachi, Lahore and Peshawar by LEAD Pakistan and funded by the Bilateral Programme Fund of the British High Commission.
“If officials say Pakistans forest cover is 5 or 6 per cent, don’t believe it. If we have 3 per cent, we are lucky,” observed development expert Dr Afgha Imran Hamid.
According to the fourth assessment report of the Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), forest cover declined to 2.5 per cent in 2005 from 3.3 per cent in the 1990s, he said.
Special Assistant to Prime Minister on Climate Change Dr Ishfaq Ahmad asked the policy-makers to brace for the hazardous impacts of “global fever” on Pakistans agriculture dependent on Himalayan glaciers, which were under threat from global warming. Melting glaciers meant erosion of valuable resources, reduction in agriculture production and slowdown of the national economy heavily dependent on agriculture outputs, he added.
Some 11 climate zones in the country are under threat of extinction. According to the IPCC, the country’s 990km coastline is considered vulnerable to rise in the ocean levels. The 16 million people of Karachi are under severe threats of tsunami, firstly, because it is located on three seismic fault lines and, secondly, because the mangrove cover that deflects tsunami is being destroyed at an alarming pace.
Increased torrential off-season rains and droughts during growing seasons are adding to the problems. Crops, particularly of cereals are highly susceptible to temperature variations and higher average temperatures mean declining yields, as does water stress. The experts warned that if temperature went up by two degrees centigrade, many areas in Pakistan, presently growing wheat, would become unsuitable for the crop. This would also result in a slowdown in the economy heavily dependent on wheat and other food crops.
They said that 38 million Pakistanis living below poverty line were especially vulnerable to any shifts in production and price patterns.
Emissions from road transport already stand at 1.3 million tons and will go on increasing as transport sector continues to expand at the annual rate of 7.6 per cent.
The LEAD Pakistans study has found that the trucking mafia, which doesn’t want to see a developed railways network, is a major cause of the emissions. It says there is no comprehensive mapping of comparative or absolute vulnerabilities to climate change. It is high time for the country to invest in weather-resistant crop varieties and farming technologies. About 35 per cent of irrigation water is lost due to seepage and mismanagement.
The study stresses the importance of exploring alternative energy sources to cope with the energy crunch and of undertaking afforestation and reforestation programmes.
It calls for an urgent shift towards a less carbon-intensive economy.
Speaking on the occasion, British High Commission Robert Brinkley said there were apprehensions about a further surge in world food prices due to climate change which he termed “the fruit” of industrial revolution.
He said the elite nations shared the major responsibility for causing global warming, but the poorest people in developing countries were paying the price for it. But, he said, developing countries must also invest in environment because it was in their own interest.