KARACHI, April 12: There is a silent epidemic emerging in our midst. Rich foods, easy and sedentary living, fondness for television combined with endless chatting on the net and a sweet tooth are the key ingredients for a disaster recipe, rendering us extremely vulnerable to a group of non-communicable diseases.
This vulnerability, combined with perpetual lack of medical care, poverty, ignorance and an ever-increasing population, invariably paves the way for an epidemic of sorts.
Already we have grim projections coming. A World Health Organization study has warned that by the year 2025, Pakistan would be home to some 15 million diabetics — the highest in the world.
The WHO representative to Pakistan, Dr Khalif Bile Mohamud, speaking at the World Health Day gathering at Baqai Medical University, said that unless urgent behavioural changes were adopted by the country’s people, there would be no means to prevent an upsurge of non-communicable diseases in the foreseeable future.
Citing the prevalence of diabetes as an example, Dr Khalif pointed out that in 1995, the country stood sixth in the world with 4 million diabetics.
He said that in the timeframe of 1995-2025, adult diabetes mellitus in developing countries would grow by 170 per cent, i.e. from 84 million to 228 million. Globally, it would increase by 122 per cent — from a total of 135 million to 300 million, unless remedial actions were taken. This more than twofold global increase will occur because of population aging and growth, as well as from obesity, unhealthy diets and a sedentary lifestyle.
Moreover, by the year 2020, up to 40pc of all world deaths would relate to cardiovascular diseases, which till 1995 accounted for 15 million or 30pc of all deaths in a year.
To dodge this catastrophic situation, he recommended that people should take to regular physical activity and walking. Moreover, a healthy diet, avoiding tobacco products, maintaining reasonable body weight, avoiding stress, following treatment for high blood pressure, diabetes and high cholesterol were also major determinants of good health, he added.
About the hazardous use of tobacco, Dr Khalif Bile Mohamud had frightening figures to tell. He said, “Unless smoking behaviour changes, three decades from now, premature deaths caused by tobacco in the developing world will exceed the expected deaths from AIDS, tuberculosis and complications in childbirth combined.” In 1995, over three million people died from tobacco-induced diseases. By 2020-30, 10 million will die every year and lifelong smokers on an average have a one in two chance of dying from tobacco.
He also pointed out that over 30pc of cancers can be prevented by maintaining a healthy diet.
Quoting from the Monica Study — the largest prospective study ever carried out by the WHO on more than 30 populations and seven million men and women aged between 35 and 64 years of age — Dr Khalif pointed out that preventive approach was the only way to stop the fast-growing worldwide epidemic of cardiovascular diseases, diabetes, cancer and chronic lung diseases by implying emphasis on diet.
The WHO representative stressed that diet includes factors that both increase and decrease the risk of cancer. He said that fat intake, dietary cholesterol, high levels of nitrate and salt, high aflatoxin, iodine deficiency, obesity, red meat, drinking very hot tea and alcohol are all known to cause cancer of various parts of the body. He advocated the use of fibre-rich vegetables and fruits.
Chancellor, Baqai Medical University, Prof F.U. Baqai; Vice- Chancellor, Azhar Ahmed and Dean, Community Health Sciences, Prof M.Ilyas also spoke on the occasion.
The WHO representative later inaugurated the Paediatrics Hospital at the University Complex.