LONDON, Feb 12: Reflecting perhaps the latest polls by the Washington-based International Republican Institute, new data compiled by Pakistan’s official agencies in the first week of the current month about the anticipated voting trends on February 18, is believed to present a picture entirely different from the one that had emerged following a similar exercise conducted by the same agencies in the first week of December.

According to the new estimates, the PPP is anticipated to bag additional 35-40 seats to its earlier estimated (December) tally of 90.

Presumably leaked to some Western diplomats in Islamabad, the new estimates are now making the rounds here in the London grapevine.

PML-N is said to have also made significant gains in the same period adding about 25-30 seats to its earlier estimates of 40, probably at the expense of the PML-Q which in the new estimates seems to have lost almost 25 seats from its earlier estimates of 115. A PML-Q top cat who was in London recently gave Dawn a tally of 90 (which matches the new estimates to the last number) when he was asked how many seats would his party win, but after having let the cat out of the bag he hastened to add as an afterthought: “But that is only in the Punjab.”

The Muttahida Majlis-i-Amal (MMA), now minus the Jamaat-i-Islami, is also expected to experience serious reversal in the trend and as against the earlier estimates of 45, the new findings give the religio-political alliance only 15 seats, a loss of as many as 30 seats.

The ANP is expected to gain at least about five additional seats to their earlier estimate of 15 while MQM would retain its tally of 20 seats, but only by the skin of its teeth. The remaining few seats are expected to be bagged by either independents or distributed among the major parties on the polling day.

The reasons given for this huge reversal in the polling trends in a matter of two months are said to be many, with a sympathy wave making the most significant contribution in favour of the PPP and the incumbency factor as well as the countrywide shortages of food, electricity and gas plus inflation said to have cost the PML-Q even its staunchest supporters.

Meanwhile, the aggressive anti-establishment campaigning conducted by the Sharif brothers and the declining popularity of President Musharraf are also said to have dented the ruling coalition’s earlier standing.

Analysts here said that if the election results reflect these trends then the PPP and the PML-N together could form the next government without assistance from any of the former ruling coalition partners or the MMA.

But they said that such a government would still need at least about 35-40 additional seats to gain the coveted two-thirds majority needed to bring about the required changes in the Constitution to make it a truly parliamentary one with the prime minister becoming an effective chief executive, and with proper parliamentary checks and balance in place.

And then for any constitutional changes to be made there is the Senate, to be reckoned with where the ruling coalition still has a slim majority and if the JUI decides to go along with this coalition rather than with the new ruling coalition then they could stop the future government in its attempts to redesign the Constitution according to its wishes.

However, if as is being promised by both the PPP and the PML-N leadership they were to try to make a government of national consensus, then perhaps the leadership of the two parties would first make attempts to negotiate with all the major parliamentary parties to achieve such a consensus and settle for a minimum programme rather than try and redesign the Constitution at least during the upcoming five-year term.

But perhaps in the bargain the presidential powers would surely be eroded enough to re-establish at least the moral supremacy of the parliament over the presidency.

Some of the sources who did not wish to be identified, however, alleged that the official plan to rig the polls was still intact and they feared that between now and the polling day a last desperate attempt would be made to get a hung parliament with the former ruling coalition holding the whip-hand.

Others said that with the PML-Q now seemingly out of the run, in order for the establishment to obtain the desired results it would need to resort to the most blatant rigging tactics caring two hoots about being seen openly to be doing so which they said would undermine the credibility of the elections inside and outside the country and deepen the political chaos, posing serious threat to the already very bad law and order situation.