How to win an election

Published February 13, 2008

THERE appears to be some apprehension in Islamabad that the number of polling stations in Sindh for the Feb 18 elections is 550 less than the number for the 2002 exercise. Is this another attempt at pre-poll rigging or something else?

There is no doubt that in this age of the print and electronic media, rigging at the polling stations is an important element of our electoral process — no rocket science involved there. However, after more than half a dozen elections to the national parliament, the establishment appears to have come of age in at least its management of elections — unlike the manner in which it handled the judiciary or eliminated political opponents.

We have four provinces and there may be subtle differences in the manner in which the elections are conducted in each. Yet at the end, the derived result is the same: deny the existence of, but take advantage of, ghost polling stations, deprive voters of the chance to cast their votes or employ methods of straightforward coercion through the threat of violence.

In Punjab, on an average, there is one polling station per five square miles. In the NWFP, there is one polling station per seven square kilometres while Sindh has one for every 11 square kilometres and Balochistan for every 100 square kilometres.

Between mobile and improvised polling stations, the outcome of a given election remains a foregone conclusion.

To take some of the standard operating procedures in Sindh, one can easily identify 34 National Assembly seats out of the provincial total of 61 general seats and around 68 provincial assembly seats that touch katcha, belo, kachho or desert areas.

For urbanites or the people living outside Sindh, katcha is the constantly increasing area between the actual water flow of the Indus river and its bunds. Belo is Sindhi for jungle, usually the thicket inside the katcha or along the waters of the river, while kachho are the plains and the hilly areas along the western fringes of the province separating it from Balochistan.

In the kachho, protective bunds have been built to shield the leeward settlements from flooding during the rainy season.

All these areas are considered safe havens for outlaws and patharidars — local influentials (usually the area’s feudal) who provide protection to the outlaws. At the same time, these areas are no-go zones for law enforcement agencies (not just the police) and other government functionaries.

It is an arrangement that serves the needs of everyone concerned; it is just the people of this province that significantly lose out. But that’s hardly a story that deserves elucidation.

What is significant in terms of the upcoming elections is that every constituency, starting from Kashmore-Kandhkot down to those dotting the delta in Thatta, has an umpteen number of polling station placed inside the katcha or belo areas.

These are either the so-called ‘improvised polling stations’, which mostly exist on paper and are set up by putting some tables and chairs inside rented tents (qanaats); or the polling stations are set up inside a one- or two-room primary schools constructed in connivance with the area feudal for use in precisely such circumstances.

To name just a few, starting from the northern tip of the province, in NA-210, Kashmore, with an average of 1,340 registered voters per polling station, the number of votes counted from 31 polling stations in the katcha area amounted to 41,540 in the 2002 elections. As always, Salim Jan Mazari won with a hefty margin over his Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) rival.

Down south in NA-237, Thatta-I, there are 36 polling stations in the impassable katcha area where, with an average of 1,365 votes per polling station, the number of voters is estimated at 49,140.

During the 2002 elections, Ayaz Shah Shirazi, the son of a former provincial forest minister, Aijaz Shah Shirazi, won this seat by 4,000 votes.

Mohammed Ibrahim Jatoi of the National Alliance bagged 98 per cent of all votes cast at polling stations set up in the katcha areas of NA-203 Shikarpur-II, while the National Alliance winner bagged over 72 per cent of the votes at polling stations set up in the katcha areas of NA-203 old Shikarpur-II.

Meanwhile, Dr Abdul Ghaffar Khan Jatoi bagged 89 per cent of the votes at katcha area polling stations in NA-211. The situation was no different in the kachho of Kambar or Dadu or the deserts of Thar, where out of sheer fear of the inhabitants of these unwelcoming areas, the marginalised minorities allowed its vote to be embezzled.

In this system, while the people of the province are the ultimate losers, the process generates many winners that cosy up together. The feudal wins and falls into the establishment’s lap if he is not already part of the king’s bandwagon. A pertinent example here is that of Khalid Ahmed Khan Lund, who bagged 52 per cent of the votes from katcha area polling stations in 2002 and then lost no time in changing loyalties to join the PML-Q.

The local administration is also hand in glove with the powerful feudals. Province-wide, the average expenditure per polling station is around Rs200,000. This may translate into anywhere between Rs500,000 to a million rupees in earning through ghost polling stations for the official managers of a constituency.

Given the location of such polling stations — katcha, belo, kachho or desert areas — no one is brave enough to attempt to monitor the actual polling. And even if there were a chance, in terms of the upcoming elections people have officially been told to stay away from the dangerous areas for their own safety.

It is probable that while the citizenry is watching events unfold in Waziristan, the establishment is engaged in heightened activity in the katcha areas.

Nothing left to chance

In a move to further muddle the issue and any apprehensions, it appears that little has been left to chance and even polling stations have been moved around to deflate voters.

A case in point is the 1,950 registered voters of Deh Nai Baran-III and Juna-I&II, taluka Thatta, NA-237. They have been directed to vote at polling station no 113, Government Primary School Goth Haji Ali Faqir Dal, some 14 kilometres on, which they will pass on their way to the polling station nominated for them.

Goth Baran is a larger village as compared to Goth Haji Ali Faqir in Deh Tando Hafiz Shah. The blatant nature of the set-up can be gauged from the fact that the people of Hafiz Shah will cast their votes at a primary school which the people of Deh Nai Baran-III and Juna-I&II shall pass on the way to polling station no 113.

Nothing in this piece is intended to imply that election rigging does not take place in Sindh’s urban areas. There, the methods used are different and although not necessarily subtle, they continue to be perfected. The fact is that over the years, the establishment has developed a number of techniques to manufacture or to some extent pre-determine the results.