HARARE: Robert Mugabe may well be declared the winner of Zimbabwe’s presidential election but such a victory will be met with widespread suspicion both at home and abroad.

“Mugabe is likely to be declared the winner. Not because of a fair election but because of violence and intimidation,” said Lovemore Madhuku, chairman of Zimbabwe’s National Constitutional Assembly, a coalition of civic groups.

Mugabe accuses the opposition Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) of stoking the violence and says the campaign has been free and fair, telling foreign critics to mind their own business.

But the recent catalogue of events, including intimidation and laws aimed at boosting the government’s chances, hardly reinforce its claim that this is a fair fight.

The MDC says more than 100 of its members have been murdered by militants from the ruling ZANU-PF in the last two years.

Army and security chiefs say they will have a major problem working with the MDC candidate, Morgan Tsvangirai, if he manages to win.

Even if he does, despite the odds, he could be arrested at once since a treason charge hangs over him.

Zimbabwe has banished foreign electoral observers from countries like Sweden, Denmark and the Netherlands, not just from former colonial ruler Britain.

At the 11th hour on Wednesday, the Mugabe-appointed Electoral Supervisory Commission was still unable to say how many ballot papers had been printed, how many soldiers and police had voted by post, and why only a few score local observers are accredited to keep an eye on 4,000 polling stations.

LACK OF OBSERVERS CAUSES CONCERN: “The issue about local observers is a particular cause of concern,” said Kare Vollan, head of the 25-strong Norwegian observer mission.

“I think the MDC would win 60-40 in a truly free and fair election. But what has been the impact of all the confusion, last-minute registration of voters and intimidation?” asked one Western diplomat.

Mugabe has ruled since independence from Britain in 1980 when negotiations ended a bitter bush war with white settlers.

Now, at 78, he wants another six-year term.

But some commentators believe Tsvangirai can win despite all the banana skins strewn in his path.

“Mugabe is going to be assessed over his 22-year record and people will ask what can he do now that he didn’t do in those 22 years?” said Masipula Sithole, a leading political scientist.

Tsvangirai’s campaign suffered a damaging setback when he was secretly filmed allegedly discussing the president’s assassination.

He denies any guilt and said the film was a set-up, but the episode left him looking accident-prone.

The government says the West, and major media, are simply biased against Mugabe.

“An African ruling party is not allowed to win an election. Unless the opposition wins it means the vote was rigged,” Information Minister Jonathan Moyo said on Wednesday.

Officials say they expect to begin announcing the results late on Monday, March 11, after counting in 120 centres. There are 5.6 million registered voters out of a population of 13 million.

Mugabe’s mantra during nearly 50 campaign rallies is that Tsvangirai is a puppet of Britain and the white community, whose number has shrunk to 70,000 or a quarter of the number in 1980.—Reuters