ISLAMABAD, May 20: With no real increase in domestic consumption, Pakistan’s oil import bill has been estimated to cross $8.8 billion next year mainly due to an expected 8.5 per cent increase in international prices, it is learnt.
According to foreign exchange estimates for the next fiscal year finalised by the government, oil imports would be about 12 per cent higher than current year’s revised estimates of $7.88 billion. International crude prices are forecast to touch the $70 per barrel mark next year compared to current year’s average of $65 per barrel.
A senior petroleum ministry official told Dawn that next year’s crude oil import bill would amount to $4.9 billion, compared to $3.87 billion this year. This would be an additional burden of more than $1 billion or 27 per cent.
The import of petroleum products next year would cost $3.53 billion, slightly lower than the current year’s $3.66 billion due to lower consumption.
The consumption of diesel has been projected to come down to 3.4 million tons and will cost $2.13 billion compared with a consumption of four million tons costing $2.3 billion. On the other hand, the import of four million tons of furnace oil would cost $1.36 billion next year although its consumption is expected to drop from this year’s 4.4 million tons.
The official said the next year’s foreign exchange estimates had been finalised on the basis of $70 per barrel crude oil, $627 per ton diesel and $340 per ton furnace oil prices in the international market. For the current year, crude prices averaged $65 per barrel, diesel $576 per ton and furnace oil $309 per barrel. As such, crude prices are forecast to rise by 7.7 per cent, diesel by 8.8 per cent and furnace oil by 10 per cent.
For the current year, the government had estimated around $7.678 billion oil imports in the budget 2006-07, which had now been revised upward to $7.877 billion because of higher international oil prices and consumption arising out of electricity crisis.
The official said these estimates were part of next year’s budget under which the balance of payment would continue to
