With an average GDP growth of 7.5 per cent in the last three years, the economy continues to expand at a rapid pace despite catastrophic earthquake, sky-rocketing oil prices and adverse weather conditions slowing down the agriculture production.
Based on the overall performance post 9/11, there are signs that the economy has achieved a fundamental transformation and there are grounds for optimism that the current growth momentum is likely to sustain over the medium to long-term.
Nevertheless, there are down side risks to sustainability of the current growth momentum that need to be addressed. This review contains a brief analysis of the economic successes achieved so far, some key risks and challenges that lie ahead and the fiscal policies announced with the budget to address them.
State of the economy: As per the Economic Survey 2005-06, the economic growth has been 6.6 per cent, which is slightly lower than the targeted seven per cent. However, considering that the economy had grown by a record 8.6 per cent last year, this is quite an impressive performance.
The most important drivers of the current year’s economic growth are extremely vibrant services and manufacturing sectors that have sustained the pace of economic growth despite set back in the agriculture sector. Continuing surge in foreign trade, an exuberant banking sector and enhanced foreign direct investment partly arising from privatization of some major public sector entities, are the key drivers of current year’s growth.
Another key indicator that reflects sustained improvement, is the per capita income, up steeply from around $500 in 2001-02 to $847 in 2005-06. The factors responsible for sharp increase in per capita income include acceleration in real GDP growth, relatively low increase in population compared to the past and stable exchange rate over the past four years.
Reasons for better performance of the economy include: * Record increase in foreign trade reflecting continuing acceleration in demand in domestic as well as the global economies. A massive upsurge in imports is partly owing to drastic increase in oil prices and partly due to continuing rise in investment in plant and machinery as well insatiable demand for consumption goods. * On the external side, the global economy continues its broad–based expansion with growth reaching close to five percent in 2006 with similar expansion projected for the next year – which will be the fifth successive year of growth by more than four per cent. This has helped world trade to expand and at the same time the rapid expansion of global trade has been a key driving force for growth in almost every part of the world. * The growth in the region and more specifically in the countries surrounding Pakistan is beginning to have greater impact on the growth momentum. * Surrounded by fast growing economies such as China (nine per cent growth) in the North East, India (eight per cent growth) in the East, Afghanistan (which is growing at a very fast pace) and Middle Eastern countries in the West that are flushed with liquidity arising from over $300 billion annual oil revenue.
* Massive credit expansion, estimated at around Rs345 billion, clearly reflects the continuing appetite of the private sector. The demand can be gauged from the fact that the cumulative credit flow to the private sector in the last three years amounted to Rs931 billion as compared to total of Rs580 billion in the previous ten years.
* The total investment has reached 20 per cent of the GDP, owing to steep rise in private as well as public sector investment. The major factors for increase in investment are steep rise in foreign direct investment that is expected to cross $3 billion mainly on account of privatization of some large public sector entities and rapid expansion in public sector development programme.
Risks and challenges: Despite the superb economic performance of the economy, there are serious impediments and risks to growth momentum in future years. Many analysts assert that there has been overheating of the economy that has resulted in higher rate of inflation, asset price bubble and excessive consumerism. Some of these risks are summarized below:
Rising inflation: A major adverse indicator that has somewhat marred last two years’ performance is the steep rise in the inflation. While the growth may have brought riches to the few, the overwhelmingly large number of people living below the poverty line and lower middle income people have been rendered poorer owing to growing inflation that, even as per the government’s own admission, is estimated to be eight per cent. This rate, when seen in the perspective of previous year’s inflation rate 9.3 per cent, clearly reflects continuing escalation in cost of living compared to most other emerging markets.
More specifically, steep rise in sugar, cement, petroleum and house rents have made it extremely difficult for the common man to make his both ends meet.
Sustainability of agricultural growth: Despite some changes in the contribution profile of various sectors to GDP in the recent years, the agricultural sector continues to lead the way by contributing nearly twenty-two percent of total output (GDP). It also contributes substantially to exports.
Unfortunately, there has not been adequate investment to generate productivity gains from use of technology and modern agricultural practices and our yield remains low and dependent mostly on favourable weather. In the absence of major focus and large investment required, the growth of this sector is likely to remain cyclical.
Foreign direct investment: Although FDI during the year is expected to exceed $3 billion, bulk of it has been generated from sale of large public sector enterprises like PTCL, KESC and Pakistan Steel.
If we exclude privatization proceeds, the FDI would be reduced to around $1 billion, which is one of the lowest when compared to over $400 billion foreign direct investment that has gone to the emerging markets this year. This shows that Pakistan is still to appear on the radar screen of foreign investors.
A major reason for low FDI despite good economic performance remains the image of Pakistan abroad, law and order situation and continuing unrest in Balochistan and NWFP. Unsustainable trade deficit: Unlike most other emerging markets, Pakistan’s growth is largely generated by increase in consumption that has accelerated its imports to $28 billion in 2005-06, and the increase in exports estimated at $17 billion, which is far too low when compared to imports. The resulting trade deficit of $11 billion and the consequential current account deficit of over $5 billion, which have been met partly through FDI, privatization of major public sector entities and remittances, may not be sustainable in the foreseeable future.
Also, as the privatization of major public sector entities nears exhaustion in about a year’s time, not only this source of additional funding will dry-up, there is apparently no alternative major source of foreign currency inflows to meet the potential increase in outflows in the form of dividends / returns to the foreign investors from such entities.
Infrastructure and savings rate: Although there has been a major effort to increase the Public Sector Development Programme to build the infrastructure that is essential to sustain economic growth on a sustained basis, the actual utilization of the planned programmes invariably remains low. There is serious shortfall of energy, as is evident from escalating load shedding, and the investment and time required to add additional energy may be a major impediment to growth over the next few years.
Also, the rate of savings remains low when compared to the required investment. These factors pose significant risks and are likely to significantly hinder sustaining economic growth of around seven per cent over the next 3-4 years.
IT software outsourcing: Compared to the tremendous opportunity in this area, and unlike our neighbouring country India, unfortunately Pakistan has not been able to achieve even a small share of this global market. Last year, India’s software and services exports amounted to massive $46 billion for the fiscal year to March 31, 2005, up by 71 per cent from previous year and it is expected to cross $60 billion in current year.
The expected growth of Indian export of services over the next few years is likely remain above 30 per cent. As against this, Pakistan’s export of software and other services is so small that it is not even disclosed separately in the exports.
The lopsidedness of the fiscal policies is also evident from the fact that the export of goods is virtually exempt from income tax but no such exemption exists for services, other than some IT enabled services. This is the key area that needs greatest attention of the government for sustaining future economic growth and balancing our trade and current accounts.
Budget features and impact: The budget 2006-07 clearly appears to be an election process with an unusually large public sector development programme of Rs415 billion, and consequently, includes a higher fiscal deficit target of Rs373 billion or 4.5 per cent of GDP compared to 4.2 per cent of GDP in the revised estimates for current year.
This is in contrast to the policy of fiscal discipline of the previous years. The proposed bank financing to meet this deficit is pitched at Rs140 billion.
In contrast to the past, this budget has proposed a number of incentives for weaker sections of the society that are likely to help in alleviation of poverty, albeit many of them may turn out to be intentions that are hard to implement. These include: * A number of incentives to agriculture sector, including exemption on duty on tractors and special incentives for livestock and dairy industry. * Rozgar (employment) programme that is planned to be subsidised by the federal government. * Relief to government employees through dearness allowance of 15 per cent, * Minimum wages increased to Rs4000 * Reduction in tax rates for salaried employees and individual tax payers, including increase in basic exemption, applicable on gross salary. * Subsidies to reduce sugar price and expansion in the number of Utility Stores.
An important feature of this year’s budget and economic survey announcements is, almost unbelievable results of Pakistan Integrated Household Survey (PIHS), as per which, it is claimed that the population living below poverty line has declined from 34 per cent in 2001 to around 24 per cent in 2005. Looking at ground realities, the results of this survey need further corroboration.
Sustaining growth: Several incentives and policies announced in the budget appear to be pro-poor but may not be adequate. Also, like in the past, implementation of policy announcements has been far from satisfactory, and there is no reason to expect a major change, given the same quality and level of administrative machinery.
Furthermore, there seems to be no serious effort for enhancing the competitiveness of the economy that is critical for sustaining the progress made in recent years mainly owing to changed external environment. The tax burden is extremely high and substantial relief required to reduce the cost of doing business has not been given.
The effective income tax rate which approaches 48 per cent (35 per cent income taxes+7 per cent WPPF and WWF+ 5.8 per cent income tax on dividends {(100-35-7)*10 per cent} acts as a strong disincentive to investment in the formal sector.
With the improvement of revenues, it was expected that over all corporate tax rate would be lowered by at least five per cent. Further, the rate of indirect tax in the form of sales tax at 15 per cent, which is a tax on poor and creates inflation, remains very high. It should be reduced to a maximum of 10 per cent.
Currently, the biggest challenge is whether the textiles will be able to compete in an era of quota free regime after the expiry of Multi Fiber Agreement last year. The initial period indicates falling prices as the competition for the textile markets begins to intensify.
While the exports have shown a growing trend mainly through larger volumes, the growth of imports have been much bigger. Unfortunately, Pakistan has not made substantial efforts that were required to enhance its competitiveness in the value- added products, by lowering the cost of production.
Most of the irritants such as high cost inputs like electricity, business disruptions, and law and order remain unresolved. While the government policies, including improvement in governance and policies aimed at achieving macro-economic stability have provided dividends, much more needs to be done to ensure sustainability of economic growth, which should be export-led and not import-based.
Nearly 60 per cent of our exports are cotton based and around 75 per cent are based on five products cotton, leather, rice, synthetic textiles and sports goods. In geographical terms, our exports are concentrated in few markets including USA, Germany, UK, U.A.E, Japan, Hong Kong and Saudi Arabia. Only USA takes around 24 per cent of our exports. Such a situation shows a serious vulnerability of our economy to a catastrophic event such as cotton crop failure.
The diversification of exports thus should be the primary objective of the government and the most viable sectors in which we could compete are the export of services such as IT software and other back office services, business process outsourcing and off shoring. Why can’t Pakistan emulate India? Without such diversification, and specially focused strategy on export of services etc. through enhancing the number of qualified and skilled people in these sectors, it will be extremely difficult, in the long run, to sustain the successes achieved in recent years.
For this purpose, the primary investment in future will need to be in our human resources-on education (including higher education), skill development and health. Looking at the budget and the medium-term macro-economic framework, both the investment as well as focus on human development is significantly less than what is essential to achieve and sustain the targeted growth.