KARACHI, March 7: The market took a deep breath of relief on Tuesday as the KSE-100 index closed with a gain of 138 points. A day earlier it had recorded the highest ever loss of 468 points in a single session.

Whether a ‘correction’ or ‘crash’, Monday was a nightmare for day traders. How many of them were ruined would of course never be known, but given the experience of the March 2005 crisis, even if those speculators have lost their last rupee, it is almost certain that they will return. Hope of making it rich next time is forever alive.

But who did it on Monday? Most market punters blame Bush. But stock market gurus sympathetic to the US president; say that he was just the scapegoat. Stock strategists who use ‘tools’ to trace index movements, loudly proclaim that the correction was over due. And the week preceding, which closed in the negative after seven trading days of a bull-run in a row, was a clear indication of what was to come.

And there is an interesting spooky side to the tale. Many old timers who had joined in sacrificing goats at the gates of the exchange, almost a decade ago — in mid nineties — to ward off evil spirits that was pushing the market down in the dumps, believe in it.

They whisper that the month of ‘Safar’ had more to do with the Monday’s ‘crash’, than the doings (or undoings) of President Bush. A former commissioner of SECP and now a fund manager (known for his elaborate ‘task force report’ on the 2002 ‘Danka’ market crisis) in a teletalk on Monday evening pointed out the ‘co-incidence’ of the month of Safar: “Monday when the market index lost the highest ever points, was in the Islamic calendar 5th of the month of Safar”, said he, and pointed out that the 2005 market crisis had also triggered on the same date”.

The morning report from stock brokerage firm InvestCap wrote on Tuesday: “According to an in-house study, we have ascertained that the KSE-100 index has provided investors with a negative return during the month of Safar in 4 out of the last 6 years. This, of course, includes the tremendous crash seen just last year, which investors seem to have forgotten so soon”.

But then both the events occurred also in the month of March. Probably the stock pundits would have to take time out for a bit of astrology to ascertain whether they ought to be careful of the month of ‘Safar’ or “beware of the ides of March”! Those who put their faith in the latter must tread carefully on Wednesday, the 15th of March. In ancient Rome, the 15th day of March, May, July and October were believed to be the bearer of evil tidings!