KARACHI, Jan 24: Pakistan could post GDP growth at 3.5 per cent for the current fiscal year 2001-02, on the back of an overall expected 2 to 2.5 per cent robust growth in the agriculture sector, analysts said on Thursday.

Economists at brokerage Taurus Securities, who said they had compiled numbers after discussions with the central bank and the country’s economic managers, visualised better than expected performance from the agriculture sector this year, which was likely to provide the needed impetus to the GDP growth.

The GDP for the current year was initially targeted by the government at 4 per cent, which was later scaled down to an estimate ranging close to 3 per cent following threats from various adversities: mainly water shortage and events following Sept 11.

Four major crops—except rice—were all slated to yield bumper harvests this season. Cotton crop was expected to finally fall in the region of 10.4 million to 10.5 million bales— close to last year’s production figure of 10.7 million bales.

Sugarcane was forecast to yield a crop size of 46.5 million tons, up 6.6 per cent from last year’s production of 43.6 million tons. “The adequate performance of both these crops is mainly attributable to better rainfall during the period April-June 2001, which is the sowing period for both these crops,” analysts said.

Rice crop was expected to be down to below 4 million tons, at 3.8 million tons for the current fiscal year, against 4.8 million tons in the previous season. “The decline in rice harvest is mainly due to switching from rice cultivation to cotton and wheat given the shortage of water during most part of last calendar year, which significantly led to reduction in availability of canal water,” say analysts.

Among the four major crops, wheat is the only Kharif crop and accounts for 12 per cent of the agriculture sector. Previously, expectations of wheat output, given the water shortage, were not very optimistic and therefore its output during the current fiscal year was considered the main dampener in the country’s GDP growth. “However, recent spate of rains in the barani areas has put estimates of wheat at close to 20 million tons for the current fiscal, up 5 per cent from last year’s production of 19 million tons,” say analysts.

According to these analysts, the preliminary estimate of growth in the manufacturing sector was estimated at 3-4 per cent (as against the 7.1 per cent growth last fiscal year) and a ‘trend growth’ of around 4 per cent in other sectors, which mainly includes the services. All of which, combined, could push the GDP growth for the current fiscal year to 3.5 per cent, up from a dismal 2.6 per cent growth rate posted by the country last fiscal.