NOW that the cotton crop is in the home stretch-in lower Sindh and early cultivated cotton in Punjab has in fact reached the picking stage, it may be time to assess the possible size of the crop. Or, more pertinently, would the crop bear the hopes of the government for another bumper crop, one that would be higher than the last year’s output which was the biggest ever in Pakistan’s history.
What made the officials raise the stakes is still a mystery and it is to be doubted even if a master sleuth would succeed in finding out what propelled official experts in Islamabad to set a target of 15 million bales for the crop.
Perhaps, they felt that they had found means for controlling nature and harnessing it for the betterment of the economy. The desire to have an even bigger crop than the last year was certainly a laudable one but plans were unfortunately planted on thin ice.
One thing that may be said in the defence of the authorities is that they tried to utilize available resources to strengthen their faith in the target set for the cotton crop of 2004-05. The only option official experts possessed was extending cropping area and that was duly done. But the government may not have had a hand in that development; last year’s crop encouraged farmers to invest maximum resources in the crop and land available to them was the starting point.
As a result of efforts of agriculture departments of provinces and the increased interest of farmers in cotton, the target area set for the crop was exceeded by 6.3 per cent. However, this should not have been the sole basis for expecting a harvest higher than
the highest Pakistan has produced. Cotton is not just land; it is cultivated on and with a lot more.
Cotton has been the most important crop of Pakistan for many years now and it provides raw material for the country’s largest industry. It has been meeting the requirements the requirements of the textile sector by and large but it appears that whatever the size of the crop, it may not be bale to satisfy textile millers completely. This is what statistics inform.
Although figures of different sources differ, which should not surprise any one, they all produce the same conclusion that indigenous cotton is becoming increasingly insufficient to fully carter to the textile industries needs. This issue must be sported out without loss of time because it is vital for the national economy, besides many other no less important aspects.
According to official figures, the textile sector consumed 11.47 million bales last year and its requirement for the current year would be around 12.50 million bales. All Pakistan Textile Mills Association (APTMA) places its consumption of cotton for the year 04-05 at 14.75 m bales. The discrepancy between the two figures is too vast to be accepted without questioning. Someone somewhere has made either a mistake or it is a case of deliberate misstatement.
Whatever the exact position, it is clear that the country would have to produce a bumper crop every year to satisfy APTMA members and even then Pakistan would be forced to raise its imports all the time to keep textile mills of the country running. Which means that the most important industry of the country would probably cost as much or possibly even more for imports as it earns from exports.
A line would have to be drawn somewhere if both industry and production sectors of cotton are to remain viable. The scales are heavily tilted in favour of the industry at this point in time; they must be balanced to ensure equity for farmers too, particularly small land owners who, it is feared, could be wiped out if their interests are not protected.
The Trading Corporation of Pakistan (TCP) has been assigned this job but it is costing the exchequer more than what it contributes and in any case, the responsibility of the state is to create conducive conditions for the progress of all stakeholders instead of becoming a party and a trading group that is not qualified for its undertaking.
This issue becomes all the more vital when the crop yield is discussed. One of the reasons for putting a high production target may have been a reference to the requirements- or demands of the textile sector.
What happens if the crop is around 11 or 12 million bales when the textile sector demands 14. 75 m bales? Would this turn Pakistan into a major importer of cotton to remain textile export business?
The farming community is generally unsure of meeting the official target. There are a number of reasons for that. Water was not sufficient in every cotton area. That placed many farms at a disadvantage. Fortunately, there was no reportable shortage of pesticides but considering that there have been pest attacks in many cotton areas, production expenses increased for many growers. Fertilizer was also not reportedly in short supply but it is an expensive input. The continuously rising price of fuel has added to production expenses. The cost of production has thus increased.
These are not direct factors in the yield from farms but a major concern for growers. But pest attacks affect output and so do weather conditions. The monsoon season always has an impact on crops and cotton reacts more quickly to untimely rains than many other crops; it is an extremely sensitive crop. Rains, thunderstorms and strong winds have been widespread and they have damaged cotton in many fields.
Their effect can yet not be assessed because in the case of cotton, one farmer’s bane may well be boon for another farmer. Rains during the day have a different affect on the standing crop while those during night time treat cotton in an altogether different manner. Flower shedding has been reported from many areas and that does not augur well for the totals production. Further, while the size of the crop may not be significantly scuttled by rains, rains can mar the quality of cotton.
Meanwhile, most farms are now at a crucial stage and weather in the next fortnight may have the last say. But the best of weather, farmers say, would not take the yield be-yond 1.3 million bales while unkind conditions can lower the size significantly. All one can do, at this stage, is to keep fingers crossed and hope for the best.