KARACHI, Aug 24: As the results season almost draws to a close, eleven of the 19 listed commercial banks have come up with their financial figures. These include Soneri Bank; PICIC Commercial Bank; MCB; Askari; Bank Al-Falah; Bank Al-Habib; Prime Commercial Bank; Mybank (formerly Bolan bank) and PICIC Bank.

Results of two banks that are being eagerly look forward to are: National Bank of Pakistan and Bank of Punjab.

While the MCB had turned out splendid earnings, analysts at stock brokerage firms are now forwarding their forecasts on expectations from the largest bank in Pakistan—NBP, ahead of the meeting of its Board scheduled to be held on August 27.

Faisal Jiwani, banking sector analyst at InvestCap observes that the NBP is expected to double its profitability during 1H2005, from Rs2.19bn (EPS Rs3.70) in 1H2004 to Rs4.28-4.34bn (EPS Rs7.25-7.35) in 1H2005. The analyst expects this growth to be on the back of higher advances and increase in lending and investment rates over the period.

Average lending rates of public sector banks have gone up from 6.09 per cent in 2Q2004 to 8.16 per cent in 2Q2005, an increase of 207bps. Compared to this, the weighted average deposit rates of public sector banks have risen by just 53 basis points from 1.15 per cent in 2Q2004 to 1.68 per cent in 2Q2005. Deposit base expected to cross Rs478bn, representing increase of 3 per cent from the closing balance of December 2004. The reason for the meagre growth would be reduction of around Rs18bn in non-remunerative deposits in 1Q2005. Advances of the bank are likely to have touched Rs245bn by June 2005. This would mean a growth of 10.6 per cent during Jan-Jun 2005, almost in line with the industry growth of 10.7 per cent.

Faisal Shaji, analyst at Capital One Securities expects the NBP to book net earnings of Rs4.3 billion (diluted earning per share (eps) at Rs7.91), as against Rs2.2 billion (eps Rs4.45) reported in the same period last year. He observed that the increase in earnings was likely to be derived from spike in yield on earning assets to the extent of 5.8 per cent during 1HFY05. “The NBP is expected to retain the market share of 15 per cent during FY05 vis-à-vis banking industry,” the analyst said.

Mohammad Imran, analyst at JS Capital Markets projects the NBP to post profit after-tax at Rs4.2 billion, representing eps at Rs7.1, compared to PAT of Rs2.2 bin (eps Rs4.09) during the corresponding period of last year, showing an increase of 90 per cent. Net interest income (NII) during 1H2005 was likely to grow by 43 per cent to reach Rs8.6bn from Rs6bn a year earlier. The analyst cited the Bank’s focus on consumer financing as the reason for the growth. The analyst said that he did not expect the bank to pay out any dividend with the results.