MULTAN, Oct 18: In his mid 60s, Haji Ghulam Rasool sits on a charpoy laid almost on the edge of the highway — which many prefer to call motorway due to its fine quality — several kilometres south-east of Multan. Puffing at his huqa, he points to the perforated pest- eaten cotton leaves in the fields across the road before he tells you that the crop is totally ruined by the pest flare-up this year, leaving little for farmers to harvest.
“They tell us the cotton market is pretty strong this year and farmers are getting good rates. What’s the use? We don’t have the crop to sell. We have harvested only a couple of maunds of phutti from the fields which used to yield 25-30 maunds in the past,” he says.
Ghulam Rasool pauses and weighs our questions before responding to them. He epitomizes a large chunk of totally illiterate or barely literate average growers who seem to have been “integrated pretty well” into the global economy. Their knowledge of New York cotton futures and a report of short crop in China actually boggles your mind.
As you drive to Dunyapur, Lodhran, about 70km from Multan, you come across very few growers who are satisfied with their yield despite the pest attack. Most paint the same picture of gloom and doom as is drawn by Haji Ghulam Rasool.
Complaints of a weak crop, terribly low yield and government’s failure to come to their help when they needed it badly are quite common. Most of them claim that their yield has come down by two- thirds.
Although one does not see cotton flowers in most fields or women plucking them off the plants these days because the first pick is already over, one can’t help watch farmers spraying pesticides in order to contain the damage and protect whatever is left of their crop. While some say they don’t hope for a good second pick which constitutes bulk of the entire crop, majority claim that there is little hope at all for the third pick that forms 15 per cent of the crop.
“It’s unprecedented,” says a farmer. “We normally complete our drill of spraying pesticides at the latest by end September. It’s middle of October. And yet we are still spraying our crops.” This is in spite of the fact that picking this year began earlier than past years. The farmers report that they had used double quantity of pesticides this year to vainly control the pest flare-up which has eventually increased their input costs.
Initially the crop was exceptionally good. Everything was just fine and the growers expected a bumper crop and regularly sprayed pesticides. “Then it so happened that we’d rains in the last week of August and first week of September. Pests, especially American worms and Army bollworm, that were though already there got ideal humid conditions for growth, and developed strong defence against pesticides. As a result, the normal schedule of spraying pesticides was also disturbed. Panicked by the flare-up, everyone rushed for pesticides that were already short in supply as soon as rains had subsided. The sudden growth in the demand resulted in the shortage of pesticides needed to cope with the worms,” a farmer, Nisar Ahmad, says.
The shortage of pesticides provided sufficient room to some to “mint money by raising prices of whatever quantity of pesticides was available in the market or selling spurious alternatives”. Although some importers are said to have airlifted the required pesticides during the last week of September on the call of the (provincial) government, the quantity was too little to cope with the alarming situation.
“By the time some farmers obtained the right quantity of right pesticide, it was too late. The pests had already attained an age (of over four days) where you can’t kill or contain them,” says a scientist working for a government research institution.
“They — American worm and Army bollworm — were always there. What has happened this year is that they joined forces against us to develop a strong defence against pesticides,” says Haji Ghulam Rasool.
Another farmer Nasim Warraich says “only those bolls which had already developed before the flare-up began had yielded. There’s been no boll formation after mid-September,” he said.
The areas affected by the pest attack include certain parts of Rahimyar Khan, Lodhran, Multan, and Muzaffargarh. Of course, some places are more affected than the others. Perforated leaves, huge worms sticking to the cotton plants or crawling in the fields are a common sight in almost every field.
But the pest attack and the consequent damage to the crop does not seem to be as comprehensive as claimed by most growers, since the pest attack is restricted to certain areas. And even in those areas it would be incorrect to assume that yield has been reduced to little or nothing in each affected field. Bigger, progressive, resourceful growers have effectively saved their crop. Smaller or average growers, with little resources available to them, however could not. “Smaller farmers are going to be hit really hard,” say the scientists. “They did not have money to buy pesticides or got adulterated and spurious ones that did not work against pests. It means huge crop losses for them.”
Many have lost hope of a good enough third “pick”, and decided to prepare the fields for wheat. “What can you hope to pluck from those plants?” asks a farmer as he points to the dried up plants in his fields in a village a few miles off Multan-Khanewal Road.
“Many of us need to save money. They cannot afford to spend on pesticides indefinitely when they do not see a good yield coming. Besides, it is useless to spray pesticides now. The bolls will be formed in December. Then we would not have time to sow wheat,” he says.
There are, however, reports that in certain areas where yields would be low in the past, the crop size is estimated to be bigger this year thanks to the rains. Abdus Sattar, manager at a ginning factory on Khanewal-Bahawalpur Road, says reports from areas like Bahawalpur are quite encouraging as output is expected to double.
“The loss in the yield in certain areas will be compensated by increase in output at other places (if the final cotton crop size in Punjab is to be estimated),” he claims. “Similarly, farmers in areas (hit by pest attack) would be compensated for their loss in the yield by increase in the phutti rates.”
A Pakistan Cotton Ginner Association (PCGA) official goes even to the extent of claiming that the farmers have “recovered” their input costs from the sale of 20 per cent cotton which has hit the market so far due to very high phutti rates. “Now they would make profit on the remaining crop. What else do they want? They’re now selling phutti for Rs1400-1500 per maund against support price of Rs850.”
Some big growers estimate size of Punjab’s cotton crop to fall down to as low as six million bales this year as a consequence of the pest attack, officials and scientists assess it to be between 7.50-8 million bales. Ginners also insist that Punjab would yield at least eight million bales if not more. The prudent ones say it is not advisable to make estimates at present because neither the extent of damage done to the crop by the pest attack nor its size could be ascertained till December.
“In 1991 too, we heard of a short crop. Many ginning factories shut down their operations. But all of a sudden huge stocks began arriving towards the end of the season and we had record yield of over 12 million bales. Same is the case this time around. Growers are hoarding phutti. They are hoping that the phutti prices would increase further,” the PCGA official, Mahbub Alam, says.
A farmer, Gul Mohammad, claims that some “speculators” and not farmers are hoarding cotton to rig profit when the prices further rise. “Farmers, specially the smaller ones, simply don’t have the kind of money required for hoarding cotton. They have to sell the crop to lay off loans and meet their daily requirements,” he says, adding, “only those with resources could do it.”
The farmers claim that fewer ginning factories are functioning this year than previous years due to short crop. Both ginners and excise officials deny it and say the situation is “quite normal”. Cotton arrivals are faster and greater this year. But the greater arrivals may be because of early crop.
There are also complaints of ginners fleecing the farmers, and paying them at least Rs100 per maund less than they should get at the present price of cotton lint. “While ginners seek to sell the lint at a higher, international price, he is not prepared to give the farmer the same rate,” says Gul Mohammad.